Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Weekly Analysis 29 Feb, 2016

BUY recommendations are ABL, APL, BAFL, BAHL, CHCC, DGCC, EFERT, EFOODS, ENGRO, FATIMA, FFBL, FFC, HBL, HCAR, INDU, KEL, LUCK, MCB, MLCF, NCPL, NML, OGDC, PIOC, POL, PPL, PSO, PSMC, PTC, and UBL.

Top gainers of last week were: Ghani Glass Ltd, Associated Services Ltd, Jah.Sidd. Co., Kot Addu Power Co., Oil and Gas Dev., Fauji Fert Bin, Pak Tobacco Co, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Archroma Pakistan and Fatima Fert.Co.
   
Top losers of last week were: Allied Rental Mod, Orix Leasing, The Searle Pak, Mari Petroleum, Adamjee Ins, J.D.W.Sugar, Nestle Pakistan, Thal Limited, Millat Tractors and Faysal Bank.

Top ten volume leaders: TRG, KEL, PAEL, JSCL, SSGC, OGDC, SNGP, BOP, FCCL, DGKC, and NBP.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market sentiments remained volatile during the week due to uncertainties and lack of triggers in the market. The benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share Index gain 282 points or 0.91 percent, to close the week at 31,294 points. While Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 30-share Index lost 225 points or 1.25 percent, to close the week at 18,296 points

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Minister’s confirmation of 400mmcfd LNG supply from next month (March-16)
  • With result season approaching end, KSE-100 seems to be lacking triggers with utmost of the focus tilted towards foreign outflows and volatile crude prices
  • Army Chief’s orders to execute final phase of operation Zarb-e-Azb
  • Negative news abound as politicians locked horns over Euro bond sale and the government’s alleged role in inflating demand for the issue, prompting the ministry to contact the financial advisor of money transfer details
  • Continuation of shrinkage in banking spreads to 5.12% in Jan-2016
  • Likely cut of Rs200bn in PSDP
  • Release of CAD numbers (down 23% YoY US$2.036bn in 7MFY16)
  • In banking sphere, HBL and FABL results and payouts were majorly in line with the market consensus
  • KAPCO piled on gains for four consecutive sessions after above expectations bottom line growth
  • LUCK underwent a beating despite earnings as per street estimates
  • Hydro power project's cost increased by 378%
  • Pharmaceutical companies have refused to meet Minister of National Health Services Regulation and Coordination Saira Afzal Tarar, while the minister said that pharmaceutical companies can't blackmail the government 
  • K‐Electric plans to add 100MW electricity to grid
  • Government considers withdrawing import duty on fine yarn
  • Pakistanis purchased 6,106 properties during 2015 as compared to 5,079 units last year, an increase of 20%. Around AED 8bn (USD2.178bn) worth of properties were purchased by Pakistanis during the year as compared to AED 7.588bn (USD2.066bn) last year, up 5.43% 
  • Foreigners sold US$4.8mn (net) during the week as compared to net selling of US$13.2mn in the past week
  • Following the previous week meeting between leading OPEC member Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC member Russia, the two other heavy oil producers Qatar and Venezuela also agreed to freeze output at January levels
  • Country’s textile exports declined by over 9% during 7MFY16 to stand at US$7.34bn vis a vis US$8.09bn past year
  • Leading auto manufacturer Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan) Limited opting to delay the introduction of the 2016 Honda Civic
  • Zameen.com, a property portal in Pakistan, has launched a property index, the first in the country and in the South Asian region. The index provides real-time prices with regards to per square-foot rates of properties in Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Faisalabad and Rawalpindi
  • Cut‐off yields on the PIBs were slashed by up to 60bps, while the GoP raised PkR152bn against the target of PkR50bn, 3yr, 5yr and 10yr bonds cutoff yields fell by 13bps to 6.34%, 43bps to 7.04% and 60bps to 8.25% respectively
  • SBP allowed Pakistani banks to restore normal financial relations with Iran in the wake of lifting of ban on Tehran by the United Nations Security Council


Following are few BUY recommendations:

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 84.7
Target Price: PKR 135.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 420.0
Target Price: PKR 626.37

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 26.66
Target Price: PKR 32

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 44.48
Target Price: PKR 68

Cherat Cement (CHCC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 90.62
Target Price: PKR 120

DG Khan Cement (DGCC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 156.2
Target Price: PKR 237

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 72.4
Target Price: PKR 110

ENGRO Foods Limited (EFOODS) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 122.9
Target Price: PKR 152.1

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 274.92
Target Price: PKR 362.00

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 36.2
Target Price: PKR 49

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 49.33
Target Price: PKR 62

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 107.2
Target Price: PKR 125.58

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 183.5
Target Price: PKR 268

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 244.10
Target Price: PKR 330.00

Indus Motors (INDU) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 949.4
Target Price: PKR 1124

K‐Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 6.8
Target Price: PKR 13.0

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 471.8
Target Price: PKR 652

MCB Bank Limited (MCB) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 197.4
Target Price: PKR 268

Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 80.0
Target Price: PKR 108.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 53.00
Target Price: PKR 63

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 91.2
Target Price: PKR 121

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 107.4
Target Price: PKR 172.00

Pioneer Cement (PIOC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 83.48
Target Price: PKR 105

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 325.2
Target Price: PKR 348

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 116.5
Target Price: PKR 168.8

Pak State Oil (PSO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 325.2
Target Price: PKR 450

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 418.06
Target Price: PKR 532

Pakistan Telecommunication (PTC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 13.8
Target Price: PKR 21.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 151.6
Target Price: PKR 212.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Weekly Analysis 20 Feb, 2016

BUY recommendations are ABL, APL, BAFL, BAHL, CHCC, DGCC, EFERT, EFOODS, ENGRO, FATIMA, FFBL, FFC, HASCOL, HBL, HCAR, INDU, KAPCO, KEL, LUCK, MCB, MLCF, NBP, NCL, NCPL, NML, OGDC, PIOC, PKGP, POL, PPL, PSO, PSMC, PTC and UBL.

Top gainers of last week were: J.D.W.Sugar, EFU General Ins, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, National Bank of Pak, Gul Ahmed, Ibrahim Fibres, Shifa International Hospitals, Abbott Lab, Service Indus, and Nishat Power Ltd.
   
Top losers of last week were: Sui South Gas, Jah.Sidd. Co., Ghani Glass Ltd, Allied Rental Mod, Engro Fertilizer, Engro Foods Ltd, Ferozsons (Lab), Pak Suzuki Motor, Archroma Pakistan and Mari Petroleum.

Top ten volume leaders: TRG, SNGP, SSGC, FCCL, OGDC, JSCL, KEL, DGKC, BOP, FABL and PAEL.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market during the week declined by 1.4% to 31,012 index level as foreign selling continued and December quarter results failed to excite investor sentiment. The benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share Index lost -452 points or -1.44 percent, to close the week at 31,012 points. While Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 30-share Index lost -292 points or -1.59 percent, to close the week at 18,071 points

Key trading activities remained dull resulting in 12% WoW decline in average traded volumes to 124mn shares/day. Similarly, average traded value followed the same path and went down by 17%WoW to US$63mn. As far as FIPI is concerned, foreigners sold US$13.2mn (net) during the week as compared to net selling of US$17.3mn in the past week.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Foreigners were net sellers of US$13.2mn during the week
  • Oil prices played hide and seek throughout the week as Saudi Arabia and Russa agreed to freeze output at current levels while Iran joined in to support this arrangement
  • Earnings announcements in the cement space were the sole out‐performers from an otherwise slew of flattish to slightly below expected results from amongst banking, oil and gas, power and fertilizer sectors
  • HUBC churned steady interest during the week on approval of its coal power tariff
  • KEL saw some value hunting on account of earnings excitement
  • ENGRO’s result was slightly below estimates but its surprise intimation to offload 24% stake of its fertilizer subsidiary through a private placement unleashed a bearish spell on EFERT, while the parents stock rallied on expectations of a large one‐time gain
  • Engro Corporation has appointed advisors to sell up to 24% shares of its subsidiary (EFERT) to any local and international investors
  • A heated war of words between NAB and GoP functionaries during the later half of the week incited renewed fears amongst the business community making an already jittery bourse lose further steam
  • NEPRA grants tariff for 1,320MW coal power plants
  • Textile sector’s borrowing surges to PKR 83 billion
  • The export of beef to UAE has reached USD43.61mn during 2014‐15, registering 24% increase as compared to the previous year
  • PKR 8.12/unit tariff approved for Hubco’s power project
  • Government of Pakistan eyes 2,160MW from Dasu hydropower project by 2021
  • Sitara Chemical Industries (SITC) announced 2QFY16 result in which company reported earnings of Rs215mn (EPS Rs10.1), showing an increase of 5% YoY
  • NBP announced 4Q2015 consolidated earnings of Rs8.6bn (EPS Rs4.1) as compared to Rs3.8bn (EPS Rs1.8) in the same period last year, led by impressive 43% growth in Net Interest Income (NII) and 67% drop in provisioning expense. Alongside the results, NBP also announced final cash dividend of Rs7.5/share
  • PM announces zero-rated tax regime for export sector
  • Forex reserves up by $192 million


Following are few BUY recommendations:

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 86.50
Target Price: PKR 135.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 430.00
Target Price: PKR 626.37

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 26.69
Target Price: PKR 32

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 44.20
Target Price: PKR 68

Cherat Cement (CHCC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 91.09
Target Price: PKR 120

DG Khan Cement (DGCC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 150.8
Target Price: PKR 237

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 69.09
Target Price: PKR 110

ENGRO Foods Limited (EFOODS) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 125.1
Target Price: PKR 152.1

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 266.11
Target Price: PKR 362.00

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 34.41
Target Price: PKR 49

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 46.34
Target Price: PKR 62

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 105.89
Target Price: PKR 125.58

Hascol (HASCOL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 135
Target Price: PKR 150

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 183.61
Target Price: PKR 268

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 245.95
Target Price: PKR 330.00

Indus Motors (INDU) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 971.27
Target Price: PKR 1124

Kot Addu Power Co (KAPCO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 75.55
Target Price: PKR 94

K‐Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 6.9
Target Price: PKR 13.0

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 477.04
Target Price: PKR 652

MCB Bank Limited (MCB) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 191.84
Target Price: PKR 268

Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 79.6
Target Price: PKR 108.00

National Bank (NBP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 57.5
Target Price: PKR 65

Nishat Chunian Ltd. (NCL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 34.2
Target Price: PKR 45.7

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 53.00
Target Price: PKR 63

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 89.0
Target Price: PKR 121

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 100.20
Target Price: PKR 172.00

Pioneer Cement (PIOC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 85.18
Target Price: PKR 105

Pakgen Power Limited (PKGP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 27.5
Target Price: PKR 41

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 239.75
Target Price: PKR 348

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 114.23
Target Price: PKR 168.8

Pak State Oil (PSO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 335
Target Price: PKR 450

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 430.30
Target Price: PKR 532

Pakistan Telecommunication (PTC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 14.7
Target Price: PKR 21.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 150.40
Target Price: PKR 212.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Weekly Analysis 15 Feb, 2016

BUY recommendations are ABL, APL, BAFL, BAHL, CHCC, DGCC, EFERT, EFOODS, ENGRO, FATIMA, FFBL, FFC, HBL, HCAR, INDU, KAPCO, KEL, LUCK, MCB, MLCF, NBP, NCPL, NML, NCL, OGDC, PIOC, POL, PPL, PSO, PSMC, PTC and UBL.

Top gainers of last week were: Jah.Sidd. Co., Ghani Glass Ltd, Pak Oilfields, Sui North Gas Pipe., EFU Life Assur Ltd., Jubilee Gen Ins, Punjab Oil, EFU General Ins, Nishat Power Ltd and Dawood Hercules Chem.
   
Top losers of last week were: Kohinoor Textile, Ferozsons (Lab), Pak Suzuki Motor, Pak Elektron, Rafhan Maize Prod., Nishat Chunian, Oil and Gas Deve, Fatima Fert.Co., Attock Cement Ltd and Honda Atlas Cars.

Top ten volume leaders: JSCL, TRG, SNGP, PTC, FCCL, NBP, EFERT, DGKC, PAEL, SSGC, and BOP.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market witnessed remained under pressure due to continuous foreign selling coupled with declining regional markets. The benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share Index lost -1015 points or -3.12 percent, to close the week at 31,464 points. While Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 30-share Index lost -650 points or -3.42 percent, to close the week at 18,363 points

Average daily volumes fell 2.4% to 140.8 million shares traded per day, while average daily values also fell 6.5% to Rs7.98 billion per day. The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s market capitalization stood at Rs6.66 trillion ($63.6 billion) at the end of the week.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Oil prices continued to be extremely volatile and fell to $26.21 per barrel after approaching the mid-30s in the previous week
  • With profit-taking in the banking sector and negative news flows for the cement and fertilizer sectors, there was little reason for investors to cheer
  • The only positive of the week was the signing of the LNG deal with Qatar, which will see shipments start in March 2016 and contribute significantly towards the energy security of the country
  • The sharp decline saw the Oil and Gas sector fall 4.8% during the week
  • A notable exception was Pakistan Oilfields Limited which rose 7.4% during the week after beating expectations with its earnings and dividend payout
  • The banking sector suffered from profit-taking and fell 3% during the week while the cement sector (down 4.8%) and the fertilizer sector (down 3.6%) also fell as a result of pricing power erosion for manufacturers in both sectors
  • Household Goods and Financial Services were among the top gainers on a sector level, rising 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively. Beverages, Automobile & Parts and Oil & Gas were among the major losers over the week as they fell 6.1%, 5.6% and 4.8%, respectively
  • Foreign selling continued unabated with foreigners offloading a net of $17.3 million worth of equity during the week
  • The privatization debacle of national carrier PIA was pushed forward as government delayed the intended sale for six months, leading to an end to the employee strike
  • EFERT’s posted profit and payout were above street estimates but gas supply ambiguity and slide in international urea prices clouded the outlook as the scrip lost 6% during the week
  • In the telecom sector, PTC’s dividend sparked interest in the scrip with stout earnings
  • Standard Chartered Bank Pakistan is going to ‘double businesses in the country. Standard Chartered is one of the major and longest operating banks in Pakistan
  • Leading organizations including PSM, FFC, PSO and Bahria Foundation have grabbed top positions in the list of property tax defaulters of more than PKR 4bn. PSM has to clear off PKR1363.140mn outstanding dues of property tax, while FFC PKR436.80mn, PSO PKR76.520mn and Bahria Foundation PKR 23.61mn  
  • Cherat Cement (CHCC) announced 2QFY16 results in which the company reported net income of Rs408mn (EPS Rs2.3), showing an increase of 4.9% YoY
  • Central Development Working Party (CDWP) approved provision of a coal conveyor system from Pakistan International Bulk Terminal (PIBTL) to railway network at Port Qasim at a cost of Rs15.9bn. This has been recommended to the Executive Committee of National Economic Council (Ecnec) for approval. Coal will be transported to the proposed coal-fired power plants 
  • The Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (DRAP) authorized 11 pharmaceutical companies for sale of generic version of Hepatitis‐C drug Sofosbuvir to be available at PkR5,868/pack (28 tablets),
  • Balochistan government announced lift‐off of the ban on new projects of oil and gas exploration across the province and started negotiations with PPL, OGDCL and some international exploration companies


Following are few BUY recommendations:

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 88.31
Target Price: PKR 135.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 430.29
Target Price: PKR 626.37

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 26.92
Target Price: PKR 32

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 43.98
Target Price: PKR 68

Cherat Cement (CHCC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 91.62
Target Price: PKR 120

DG Khan Cement (DGCC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 152.7
Target Price: PKR 237

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 76.24
Target Price: PKR 110

ENGRO Foods Limited (EFOODS) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 137.9
Target Price: PKR 179.4

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 265.50
Target Price: PKR 362.00

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 34.92
Target Price: PKR 49

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 47.31
Target Price: PKR 62

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 108.78
Target Price: PKR 125.58

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 185.01
Target Price: PKR 268

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 259.84
Target Price: PKR 330.00

Indus Motors (INDU) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 998.3
Target Price: PKR 1305.00

Kot Addu Power Co (KAPCO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 79.38
Target Price: PKR 94

K‐Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 6.9
Target Price: PKR 13.7

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 495.32
Target Price: PKR 652

MCB Bank Limited (MCB) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 194.15
Target Price: PKR 268

Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 80.3
Target Price: PKR 108.00

National Bank (NBP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 53.56
Target Price: PKR 65

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 53.02
Target Price: PKR 63

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 92.0
Target Price: PKR 121

Nishat Chunian Ltd. (NCL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 35.0
Target Price: PKR 45.7

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 101.96
Target Price: PKR 172.00

Pioneer Cement (PIOC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 86.63
Target Price: PKR 105

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 238.45
Target Price: PKR 348

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 112.90
Target Price: PKR 168.8

Pak State Oil (PSO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 332.4
Target Price: PKR 456

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 468.5
Target Price: PKR 696

Pakistan Telecommunication (PTC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 14.7
Target Price: PKR 21.6

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 151.08
Target Price: PKR 212.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Weekly Analysis 5 Feb, 2016

BUY recommendations are ABL, APL, BAFL, BAHL, CHCC, DGKC, EFERT, EFOODS, ENGRO, FATIMA, FFBL, HBL, HCAR, INDU, LUCK, KEL, MCB, MLCF, NBP, NCPL, NPL, OGDC, POL, PPL, PSMC, PSO, PTC and UBL.

Top gainers of last week were: Associated Services Limited, Jah.Sidd. Co., J.D.W.Sugar, Honda Atlas Cars, Habib Bank Ltd, Bank Al‐Falah, EFU Life Assur Ltd., Abbott Lab, Bannu Woollen and Mari Petroleum.
   
Top losers of last week were: Pak Tobacco Co, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Punjab Oil, Colgate Palmolive, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Jubilee Gen Ins, Ibrahim Fibres, Nishat Chunian, Shifa International Hospitals and Pakcem Limited.

Top ten volume leaders: BOP, FCCL, TRG, PAEL, JSCL, KEL, DGKC, OGDC, SNGP, PIBTL, and EFERT.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market sustained the bullish momentum gained during last week and posted an impressive return of 4.1% WoW to close at 32,479 pts. The benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share Index gaining 1180 points or 3.77 percent, to close the week at 32,479 points. While Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 30-share Index reached on 19,013 points by gaining 834 points or 4.59 percent.

Average daily volume increased 24% to 144.3mn shares and average daily value rose 22% to Rs8.5bn/US$81.4mn.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept policy rate unchanged at 6%, bashing expectations of continued monetary easing
  • The country wide protest over PIA privatization kept the trading activity limited as average turnover during the week recorded at 144mn shares against 116mn shares recorded previous week
  • Moody gives nod of approval for new MPC framework
  • Over the week, Commercial Banks, Financial Services and Pharma & Biotech sector increased by 7.2%, 4.8% and 4.6%, respectively
  • Decline was seen in Beverages, Tobacco and Forestry sector, which were down 7.8%, 7.4% and 3%, respectively
  • Foreigners were net sellers of US$2.2mn during the week
  • Cement sector witnessed net buying of US$6.0mn while Banks and Oil & Gas Exploration sector experienced net selling of US$7.1mn and US$4.8mn respectively during the week
  • Whispers of Russia agreeing to come to the table with Saudi Arabia to decide the fate of oil prices helped spark recovery in the international crude oil prices which in turn provided some respite to another heavyweight, the E&P sector (+2.5% WoW) 
  • IMF’s nod of approval for US$500mn tranche
  • Cement sector was the center of attraction on the expectation of healthy earnings growth and sophisticated payouts
  • KOHC impressed investors with extraordinary growth due to low base effect
  • HCAR hit two consecutive upper caps and was included in the top gainers list for the week
  • No major results were declared during the week except EPQL that depicted negative bottom line growth along with a cash dividend of PKR 1.00/share, less than industry estimates
  • Imports of used cars continue to thrive, showing a sharp jump of 30% in the last six months
  • Government of Pakistan announced a reduction in prices of petroleum products by PKR5/litre. Petrol will be available at PKR71.25/litre and high speed diesel at PKR75.79 from Feb 1, according to a notification 
  • OGDC and PPL have been tasked to carry out a pilot project to explore shale gas deposits, estimated at more than 10,000 TCF
  • The retail price of sugar has surged to PKR60‐62 a kilogram after the government doled out a PKR6.5bn (PKR13 a kg) export subsidy to millers in December 2015, when prices were PKR55 
  • Pakistan’s cotton production has plunged 33% to 9.612mn bales this season. Cotton experts estimate that the shortfall would inflict a loss of around USD 6bn to the country’s GDP 
  • The country's annual inflation inched up to 3.32%YoY (slightly above market expectations) in Jan'16 as compared to 3.19%YoY in Dec'15 (up 0.21%MoM) due to increase in cost of food items
  • Outstanding loans to private‐sector businesses amounted to PkR3.2tn (up 8.8%YoY) as at Dec’15, while consumer loans climbed to PkR292.9bn at the end of CY15 (up 11.6%YoY) as a result of the current cycle of monetary easing


Following are few BUY recommendations:

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 93.93
Target Price: PKR 135.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 442.00
Target Price: PKR 626.37

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 28.99
Target Price: PKR 32

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 44.87
Target Price: PKR 68

Cherat Cement (CHCC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 97.56
Target Price: PKR 120

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 159.2
Target Price: PKR 237

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 81.15
Target Price: PKR 110

ENGRO Foods Limited (EFOODS) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 140.5
Target Price: PKR 179

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 275.04
Target Price: PKR 362.00

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 37.75
Target Price: PKR 49

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 49.24
Target Price: PKR 62

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 192.09
Target Price: PKR 268

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 280.75
Target Price: PKR 330.00

Indus Motors (INDU) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 1,045.30
Target Price: PKR 1305.00

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 520.31
Target Price: PKR 652

K‐Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 7.00
Target Price: PKR 13.70

MCB Bank Limited (MCB) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 203.79
Target Price: PKR 268

Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 85
Target Price: PKR 108

National Bank (NBP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 56.26
Target Price: PKR 65

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 53.52
Target Price: PKR 63

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 51.05
Target Price: PKR 59

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 110.49
Target Price: PKR 172.00

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 222.06
Target Price: PKR 348

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 118.47
Target Price: PKR 168

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 517.7
Target Price: PKR 696

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 335.2
Target Price: PKR 457

Pakistan Telecommunication (PTC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 15.2
Target Price: PKR 21.6

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 154.83
Target Price: PKR 212.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Weekly Analysis 2 Feb, 2016

BUY recommendations are PSMC, HCAR, INDU, FFC, EFERT, FATIMA, ENGRO, OGDC, POL, PPL, PSO, APL, NML, ABL, NBP, UBL, HBL, BAFL, BAHL, DGKC, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and KOHC

Top gainers of last week were: Ibrahim Fibres, Pak Tobacco Co, Pakcem Limited, Archroma Pakistan, D.G.K.Cement, National Refinery, Kohat Cement, Gul Ahmed, Nishat Chunian and EFU Life Assur Ltd.
   
Top losers of last week were: Ferozsons (Lab), Nestle Pakistan, Shifa International Hospitals, Habib Bank Ltd, Hum Network Ltd, Meezan Bank, Bank Al‐Falah, ICI Pakistan, K‐Electric, and Associated Services Limited.

Top ten volume leaders: TRG, KEL, DGKC, FCCL, PAEL, FFBL, SSGC, BOP, MLCF, PPL, and OGDC.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market remained sensitive to the global crude prices as the market moved parallel to the commodity prices. The benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share Index gain 350 points or 1.13 percent, to close the week at 31,299 points, while KSE 30-index has reached 18,179 by gaining 238 points or 1.33 percent.

Average traded value followed the same path and went down by 2%WoW to US$66mn. However, market capitalization rose to US$63.2bn (up 1.4%WoW). As far as FIPI is concerned, foreigners bought US$7mn during the week as compared to net selling of US$31mn in the past week.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Recovery in international oil prices over the week lent relief to the local bourse
  • Average daily volume declined 21% to 116.8mn shares and average daily value declined 13% to Rs7bn/US$66.6mn
  • Tobacco, Construction & Materials and Oil & Gas were major gainers during the week, up 11.5%, 4.2% and 3.9%, respectively. Media and Pharma & Bio Tech were major losers as they declined 3.4% and 2.7% respectively
  • Foreigners were net sellers of US$7mn in the outgoing week. Cement sector attracted the most attention with net buying of US$6.8mn. Major selling was seen in Banks and Electricity sector with net selling of US$6.4mn and US$2mn, respectively  
  • Atlas Honda (ATLH) announced its 3QFY16 results in which the company reported net income of Rs755mn (EPS Rs7.3), an increase of 21.4% YoY. Net sales of the company grew by 20.7% YoY to Rs14.2bn in the outgoing quarter owing to robust motorcycle sales, which mainly drove bottom-line growth 
  • Crescent Steel & Allied Products (CSAP) announced its 2QFY16 result. The company reported consolidated profit after tax of Rs309mn (EPS Rs4.2), nearly a two fold increase from same period last year. Sales increased 155% YoY to Rs1.9bn and gross margins improved 15.6ppts to 22.9% in outgoing quarter
  • Fauji twins announced earnings and payouts that were lesser than street expectations
  • EFOOD’s presented stellar Y/Y performance gains, however lower than expected earnings in the 4QCY15 alongside an emphasis on consolidation by the company failed to cheer investors
  • ENGRO and EFERT registered strong advances on excitement ahead of the upcoming results while big ticket financials kept losing steam on reported foreign selling
  • PAEL made a surprise comeback hitting its upper limit on the last trading day of the week driven by chatter of a fresh contract for supply of transformers by FESCO
  • Chevron Pakistan, operating under its Caltex brand, has planned to spend Rs2bn in Pakistan on a lubricant plant over next 3-4 years
  • Massive reduction in power tariff for industrial consumer which rejuvenated hefty interest in Cements and chemical sector in the last trading day
  • Russia indicated that OPEC’s largest producer proposed oil production cuts of up to 5% to help clear a glut of crude and prop up sinking prices
  • The textile group exports fell by 8.93% to USD6.269bn in 1HFY16 as compared to the exports of USD6.884bn in same period of last year
  • Silk Bank decides to streamline its shareholding
  • SBP conducted auction for the sale of PIBs where cut‐off yields for 3yrs, 5yrs and 10yrs paper fell to 6.50% (down 52bps) raising PkR71.1bn, 7.55% (down 45bps) for PkR60.3bn, and 8.85% (down 25bps) worth PkR163.2mn respectively 
  • PESCO board approved procurement of 1,000 transformers from PAEL


Following are few BUY recommendations:

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 90.0
Target Price: PKR 135.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 434.0
Target Price: PKR 626.37

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 26.0
Target Price: PKR 32

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 43.0
Target Price: PKR 68

Cherat Cement (CHCC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 97.9
Target Price: PKR 120

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 153.1
Target Price: PKR 237.0

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 79.8
Target Price: PKR 110

ENGRO Foods Limited (EFOODS) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 141.8
Target Price: PKR 179.4

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 265.7
Target Price: PKR 362.00

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 38.0
Target Price: PKR 49

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 112.6
Target Price: PKR 157.6

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 47.9
Target Price: PKR 62

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 171.1
Target Price: PKR 268

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 246.7
Target Price: PKR 330.00

Indus Motors (INDU) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 1,045.10
Target Price: PKR 1,305.0

Kot Addu Power Co (KAPCO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 79.0
Target Price: PKR 94

K‐Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 7.0
Target Price: PKR 13.7

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 485.3
Target Price: PKR 652

Pakistan Telecommunication (PTC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 14.8
Target Price: PKR 21.6

MCB Bank Limited (MCB) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 192.7
Target Price: PKR 268

Maple Leaf Cement Factor (MLCF) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 83.1
Target Price: PKR 108.0

National Bank (NBP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 52.3
Target Price: PKR 65

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 53.4
Target Price: PKR 63

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 96.5
Target Price: PKR 121.1

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 50.3
Target Price: PKR 59

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 109.2
Target Price: PKR 172

Pioneer Cement (PIOC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 90.8
Target Price: PKR 105

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 213.5
Target Price: PKR 348

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 116.8
Target Price: PKR 168

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 502
Target Price: PKR 696

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 326.1
Target Price: PKR 456.8

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 143.9
Target Price: PKR 212.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram