Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 26 Oct, 2015

BUY recommendations are PSMC, INDU, FFC, EFERT, FATIMA, ENGRO, OGDC, POL, PPL, PSO, APL, NML, ABL, NBP, UBL, HBL, BAFL, BAHL, DGKC, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and KOHC

Top gainers of last week were: ARPL, PICT, NETSOL, RMPL, ABOT, HASCOL, SNGP, DAWH, BAFL and HMB
    
Top losers of last week were: PIOC, BATA, ARM, GRAYS, SEARL, MEBL, DGKC, MLCF, PTC and EPCL

Top ten volume leaders: TRG, PAEL, FCCL, MLCF, JSCL, KEL, FFBL, SNGP, SSGC, DGKC, and BOP.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market index movement was bearish. The benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share Index lost 10 points, or -0.03 percent, to close the week at 33,945 points. KSE 30-share Index shed 121 points, or -0.59 percent, to end at 20,288 points.

Average traded volumes during the week remained flat at 175mn shares v.s. 178mn shares in the past week (down 1.67% WoW). On the same lines, average traded value went up by 20% WoW to US$92mn.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is on US visit on the invitation of President Barack Obama. Top issue on the table is extension of US military presence in neighboring Afghanistan till 2017 followed by other issues relating to bilateral cooperation in various fields
  • K-Electric (KEL) has obtained a loan of US$250 from Citi bank, for the period of 10 years, to upgrade its power grid and improve transmission system capacity by 33%. Aforementioned projects will help the company to curtail its line losses
  • The textile sector saw gains as the government announced incentives for the spinning sector while the auto-sector also attracted interest on news of the auto-policy being closer to finalisation
  • The oil and gas sector was again at the center of events at the bourse as crude oil prices slowly crept downwards throughout the week. Additionally, result announcements by Pakistan Petroleum Limited and Pakistan Oilfields were below expectations and proved to be a damper on the market
  • The banking sector, on the other hand, continued to recover strongly after earnings announcements by major banks were largely inline with expectations
  • Foreigners were again sellers at the bourse, offloading $2.6 million worth of net equity on the back of the $9.2 million net selling the previous week. Foreigners have now offloaded a net of $28 million worth of equity in the Pakistani market in October alone
  • Imposition of 10% RD on Indian yarn imports and 100bps cut in ERF and LTFF under textile incentive package
  • Release of PkR150.7bn by the GoP under PSDP vs. budgeted PkR700bn
  • Current account balance posting a US$306mn surplus in Sept’15
  • OGRA’s rejection of SNGPL’s plea for a PkR190/mmbtu (47%) increase in the gas tariff, to allow the utility to meet its Final Revenue Requirement of PkR84bn
  • Strong results from the textile sector should add to the recent interest in the segment from the textile relief package

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 440
Target Price: PKR 542

Indus Motor (INDU) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 1,071
Target Price: PKR 1293.99

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 125.8
Target Price: PKR 163.5

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 90.4
Target Price: PKR 118.7

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 47.0
Target Price: PKR 58.9

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 303.4
Target Price: PKR 362.00

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 137.3
Target Price: PKR 212.00

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 314.0
Target Price: PKR 423.0

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 126.8
Target Price: PKR 193.8

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 318.8
Target Price: PKR 493

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 519.3
Target Price: PKR 626.37

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 103.1
Target Price: PKR 168.5 

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 99.3
Target Price: PKR 135.00 

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 55.4
Target Price: PKR 69.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 163.6
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 208.0
Target Price: PKR 270

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 28.0
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 43
Target Price: PKR 68

Dera Ghazi Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 140.3
Target Price: PKR 176

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 540.2
Target Price: PKR 665

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 69.6
Target Price: PKR 79.05

Fauji Cement (FCCL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 34
Target Price: PKR 39.50

Kohat Cement (KOHC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 220
Target Price: PKR 268

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 19 Oct, 2015

BUY recommendations are PSMC, HCAR, INDU, FFC, EFERT, FATIMA, ENGRO, OGDC, POL, PPL, PSO, APL, NML, ABL, NBP, UBL, HBL, BAFL, BAHL, DGKC, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and KOHC

Top gainers of last week were: Associated Services Limited, The Searle Pak, Pak Int.Bulk Ter, Jah.Sidd. Co., EFU General Ins, Pak Tobacco Co.XD, Mari Petroleum, National Bank of Pak, Ibrahim Fibres, and Habib Metro Bank
    
Top losers of last week were: Kot Addu Power Co., Shifa International Hospitals, Bannu Woollen, Service Indus, Punjab Oil, Attock Petroleum, Honda Atlas Cars, Lucky Cement, Fauji Cement Company Ltd. and Packages Limited

Top ten volume leaders: TRG, PAEL, JSCL, KEL, PIBTL, BOP, FCCL, SNGP, MLCF, DGKC, and FFBL.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market index dispelled an ‘upbeat’ aura where the week terminated at 33,954pts, up 0.3%WoW. The benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share Index gained 112 points, or 0.33 percent, to close the week at 33,955 points. KSE 30-share Index shed 25 points, or 0.12 percent, to end at 20,409 points.

Average traded volumes during the week increased to 181mn shares vs 175mn shares in the past week (+3.4% WoW). However, Average traded value followed reversed trajectory and was down by 10.2%WoW to US$85mn.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Arablite dropped to US$46.89/bbl from US$49.63/bbl last week though Oil sector witness 4% appreciation in value
  • Confusion still prevails over the taking back of gas tariff hike and reduction in price per bag, therefore the sector remained under pressure where the major players in the fertilizer sector closed in the red zone
  • News of LUCK expanding in the North gives rise to speculation that other major players will do the same, which can eventually lead to the big players to get into a price war to capture market share, although this speculation will become valid as and when these expansions come on line not before at least 2‐3 years
  • Some renewed interest was seen in the textile sector as the Govt. agreed to announce textile package by the end of Oct 2015
  • The Ministry of National Food Security and Research notified detailed procedure of the subsidy on DAP, NP and NKP, which would be paid after the sale of bagged fertilizers on the basis of sales tax invoice
  • Pakistan and Russia inked an agreement to lay 1000kms Karachi-Lahore LNG pipeline cos􀆟ng US$2bn
  • The GoP borrowed PkR170bn through MTB auctions with 3mth, 6mth and 12mth cut-off yields coming in at 6.44%, 6.48% and 6.48% respectively
  • Export/Import for Sept'15 at US$1.7bn/US$3.4bn, down 20%/23%YoY, with net deficit of US$1.7bn down 25% according to PBS figures
  • MQM agrees to withdraw resignations
  • Textile sector marks black day as relief package delayed
Following are few BUY recommendations:

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY Current Price: PKR 427.75
Target Price: PKR 542

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – BUY Current Price: PKR 238.15
Target Price: PKR 324.00

Indus Motor (INDU) – BUY Current Price: PKR 1,048
Target Price: PKR 1293.99

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) – BUY Current Price: PKR 125.18
Target Price: PKR 163.5

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY Current Price: PKR 91.27
Target Price: PKR 118.7

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY Current Price: PKR 45.89
Target Price: PKR 58.9

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUYCurrent Price: PKR 305.67
Target Price: PKR 362.00

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY Current Price: PKR 138.62
Target Price: PKR 212.00

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY Current Price: PKR 319.69
Target Price: PKR 423.0

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY Current Price: PKR 135.11
Target Price: PKR 193.8

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY Current Price: PKR 330.18
Target Price: PKR 493

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY Current Price: PKR 516.38
Target Price: PKR 626.37

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY Current Price: PKR 102.14
Target Price: PKR 168.5 

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY Current Price: PKR 97.87
Target Price: PKR 135.00 

National Bank (NBP) – BUY Current Price: PKR 55.12
Target Price: PKR 69.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY Current Price: PKR 163.29
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY Current Price: PKR 206.51
Target Price: PKR 270

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY Current Price: PKR 27.10
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY Current Price: PKR 43.23
Target Price: PKR 68

Dera Ghazi Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUYCurrent Price: PKR 146.00
Target Price: PKR 176

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 534.78
Target Price: PKR 665

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) – BUYCurrent Price: PKR 72.64
Target Price: PKR 79.05

Fauji Cement (FCCL) – BUYCurrent Price: PKR 35.31
Target Price: PKR 39.50

Kohat Cement (KOHC) – BUYCurrent Price: PKR 209.70
Target Price: PKR 268

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 12 Oct, 2015

BUY recommendations are PSMC, HCAR, INDU, FFC, EFERT, FATIMA, ENGRO, OGDC, POL, PPL, PSO, APL, NML, ABL, NBP, UBL, HBL, BAFL, BAHL, DGKC, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and KOHC

Top gainers of last week were: Shell Pakistan, Shifa International Hospitals, P.S.O., Kohat Cement, Pak Petroleum, Pak Oilfields, Mari Petroleum, ICI Pakistan, Punjab Oil and Oil and Gas Deve.
    
Top losers of last week were: Indus Dyeing, EFU Life Assur Ltd., Pak Tobacco Co, EFU General Ins, Bannu Woollen, Meezan Bank, Fauji Fert Bin, Fauji Fertilizer Co., Archroma Pakistan and MCB Bank Ltd.

Top ten volume leaders: TRG, PAEL, FCCL, MLCF, JSCL, KEL, FFBL, SNGP, SSGC, DGKC, and BOP.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market index dispelled an ‘upbeat’ aura where the week terminated at 873pts, up 2.65%WoW. The benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share Index gained 873 points, or 2.65 percent, to close the week at 33,843 points. KSE 30-share Index shed 609 points, or 3.08 percent, to end at 20,384 points.

Average traded volumes during the week remained flat at 175mn shares v.s. 178mn shares in the past week (down 1.67% WoW). On the same lines, average traded value went up by 20% WoW to US$92mn.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • GoP borrowing PkR97.6bn vs. targeted PkR50bn in PIBs auction with cut‐off yields for 3yr, 5yr and 10yr coming in at 7.196% (down 15bps), 8.180% (down 15bps) and 9.229% (down 11bps)
  • Comfortable reserves position as a result of US$505mn from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), US$500mn from issuance of Sukuk bonds and US$376mn under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF)
  • Moody’s assignment of a B3 rating to Pakistan’s global bond and regarding economic outlook as ‘stable’, and most importantly
  • IMF’s detailed assessment report on its eighth review under EFF managed to only uphold positivity with its allocation of a threshold for circular debt and an urge to improve recovery of DISCOS (Distribution Companies)
  • With the recent agreement between Fertilizer companies and the government pertaining to reduction in per bag prices, we believe the sector will likely turn in green as gas tariffs are subsequently reduced by the GoP as part of the deal
  • Sharp recovery was seen in international oil prices during the week as Arab Light/WTI Crude was up 12%/9% WoW. Resultantly, Oil & Gas sector at KSE index marched up 8% WOW
  • Oil & Gas, construction & material and Commercial banks were major gainers during the week, increasing by 8%, 4% and 2%, respectively. Tobacco and Life Insurance were major losers, down 4% and 3%, respectively
  • Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), the largest political party in Karachi, agreed to take back their resignations from Parliament and Sindh Assembly following Govt.’s decision to form a grievance resolution committee
  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), through a KSE notice, has disclosed the discovery of gas from the Latif South-1 exploration well. PPL has a 33.34% stake in the joint venture of the Latif exploration license. Our analysts predict a positive impact of Rs0.18 on PPL's EPS
  • Book building of Amreli Steels Limited was completed. A total of 138.8mn shares were received against the offer of 55.5mn shares, at a strike price of Rs51/share.
  • Used auto parts Auto industry accused of misusing concessionary SROs
  • Pakistan’s cotton production likely to go down 11%
  • SBP injects PKR 1.3tn into banks

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 439.72
Target Price: PKR 542

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 248.09
Target Price: PKR 324.00

Indus Motor (INDU) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 1,025
Target Price: PKR 1293.99

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 125.64
Target Price: PKR 163.5

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 92.47
Target Price: PKR 118.7

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 46.30
Target Price: PKR 58.9

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 310.74
Target Price: PKR 362.00

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 137.80
Target Price: PKR 212.00

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 324.78
Target Price: PKR 423.0

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 134.34
Target Price: PKR 193.8

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 333
Target Price: PKR 493

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 539.20
Target Price: PKR 626.37

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 103
Target Price: PKR 168.5 

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 100.34
Target Price: PKR 135.00 

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 52.03
Target Price: PKR 69.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 161.97
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 202.93
Target Price: PKR 270

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 27.28
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 42.00
Target Price: PKR 68

Dera Ghazi Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 146.19
Target Price: PKR 176

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 557.10
Target Price: PKR 665

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 73.51
Target Price: PKR 79.05

Fauji Cement (FCCL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 36.72
Target Price: PKR 39.50

Kohat Cement (KOHC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 211
Target Price: PKR 268

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram