Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 31 Aug, 2015

BUY recommendations are PSMC, OGDC, POL, PPL, PSO, KEL, NML, NCL, ABL, NBP, UBL, HBL, BAFL, BAHL, ENGRO, DGKC, LUCK, KOHC and CHCC.

SELL recommendations are FFBL, PKGP, HUBCO, HCAR and INDU.

Top gainers of last week were: Pak Tobacco Co., Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Maple Leaf Cem., Allied Rental Mod, Punjab Oil, GlaxoSmithKline Pakistan, Pioneer Cement, Habib Metro Bank, Kohinoor Textile and Fauji Cement Company.
   
Top losers of last week were: Bata (Pak) Ltd., Sui South Gas, Atlas Battery, Thal Limited, Attock Petroleum, Indus Motor, Pakgen Power Ltd., Rafhan Maize Prod., Packages Limited and MCB Bank Ltd.

Top ten volume leaders: KEL, JSCL, PAEL, TRG, FFBL, BOP, SSGC, SNGP, TRG, FCCL, AKBL, PTC, and FFBL.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market recovered after losing about 1500 points on the first trading day of the week. KSE-100 index closed on 34,447 by losing -73 points or --0.21%, while KSE-30 index closed on 20,976  by losing -132 points or - 0.63%.

The average traded value was pulled down by 9.6%WoW to average at US$108mn, whereas the average traded volume also plummeted by 23.89%WoW to average at 254mn shares.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE), Lahore Stock Exchange (LSE) and Islamabad Stock Exchange (ISE) have signed an MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) to integrate the 3 stock exchanges to form uniform exchange called Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Trading sessions marred by heightened volatility and prevalence of adverse external factors (tumbling Asian markets, volatility in global oil prices)
  • Heightened volatility witnessed in global oil prices as Brent fell below US$45/bbl for the first time in six years, only to rise by more than 10% on Friday maintaining stability at US$47/bbl
  • Inking of a MOU by the three stock exchanges of the country to incorporate a unified Pakistan Stock Exchange
  • SBP stating that it expects the PkR to remain stable against the US$ as the Rupee declined 2.9%WoW against the Greenback
  • Country’s total liquid fx reserves for the week ended Aug 21’15 marked a decline of US$146mn to US$18.51bn
  • GLAXO announcing a spinoff of its consumer healthcare unit into a separate entity GSK Consumer Healthcare Pakistan Ltd
  • Negativity in the oil stocks persisted into the week as well (despite somewhat recovery in the last day) with the sector cumulatively contributing 143pts to the decline
  • Banking sector also came under the axe (↓94pts) with investors speculating another interest rate cut in the backdrop of easing inflationary pressures amidst falling crude. MCB and OGDC were the prime negative index movers, eroding 81 and 61pts from the index
  • Cements (↑82pts) provided modicum of support to the index along with other side board sectors chipping in
  • Trading volume, averaging at 187mn (↑ 17% WoW), significantly improved during the week with KEL churning the most volumes at 153mn
  • Foreigners for the consecutive second week remained net sellers, offloading USD42mn worth of shares during the week
  • Global markets turn positive during the week post stiffness over China's slow down, weak currency, and strong US$ dollar which had led foreign outflow in the equities
  • On the contrary, global crude prices showed massive recovery of over 10% on Thursday, providing oil stocks the much-needed momentum
  • The management of KEL has reportedly agreed to negotiate new PPA with CPPA to obtain electricity from the national pool and a GSA with SSGCL
  • TCP finalises deals on 150,000 tons of urea import
  • The ready to harvest major and minor crops, including cotton, paddy, chilly and vegetables worth almost Rs85 billion have been completely washed out by the rain and floods in Sindh
  • Government of Pakistan has taken a serious note of a highly significant decline ‐ about 12% in textile exports of the country during July and called an emergency meeting. According to the latest figures released by the PBS, country's textile exports declined to USD1.03bn in July 2015 from USD1.16bn
  • Pakistan to import cotton worth USD2bn for textile sector
  • US has reauthorised GSP status for Pakistan. GSP programme has been renewed through Dec 31, 2017 and will be effective retrospectively between Aug 1, 2013 and July 28, 2015
  • ICI Pakistan to spend $90mln onlight soda ash plant in Khewra
  • Nissan Motors of Japan is exploring the possibilities of re‐launching its different models along with Datsun in Pakistan depending on upcoming auto policy for the next five years

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 430.0
Target Price: PKR 542

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 137.0
Target Price: PKR 238.2

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 337.9
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 135.4
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 335.8
Target Price: PKR 493

K-Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY  
Current Price: PKR 7.8
Target Price: PKR 13.3

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 109.9
Target Price: PKR 168.5

Nishat Chunian Ltd. (NCL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 38.8
Target Price: PKR 45.7

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 104.7
Target Price: PKR 140.0

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 53.8
Target Price: PKR 69.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 164.6
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 212.3
Target Price: PKR 270

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 27.7
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 44.0
Target Price: PKR 68

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 322.7
Target Price: PKR 403

Dera Ghazi Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 145.8
Target Price: PKR 176

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 528.1
Target Price: PKR 665

Kohat Cement (KOHC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 224.9
Target Price: PKR 268

Cherat Cement (CHCC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 90.1
Target Price: PKR 109

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. (FFBL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 62.98
Target Price: PKR 49.00

Pakgen Power Ltd (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 28.78
Target Price: PKR 24.00

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 102
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 249.01
Target Price: PKR 204.00

Indus Motor (INDU) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 1191.70
Target Price: PKR 1023.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 23 Aug, 2015

BUY recommendations are PSMC, OGDC, POL, PPL, PSO, KEL, NML, NCL, ABL, NBP, UBL, HBL, BAFL, BAHL, ENGRO, KOHC, and CHCC.

SELL recommendations are FFBL, HUBCO, HCAR and INDU.

Top gainers of last week were: EFU Life Assur Ltd., Jubilee Gen Ins, International Steels Ltd, Indus Dyeing, Hub Power, IGI Insurance, Kot Addu Power, Bata (Pak) Ltd., EFU General Ins and Dawood Hercules Chem.
    
Top losers of last week were: Sui South Gas, Pakcem Limited, Jah.Sidd. Co., TRG Pakistan Ltd, National Refinery, Pak Suzuki Motor, Oil and Gas Deve, Arif Habib Corp, Sui North Gas Pipe. and Attock Refinery Ltd.

Top ten volume leaders: KEL, TRG, JSCL, FFBL, PAEL, SSGC, BOP, FCCL, AKBL, and ISL.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market prolonged its bearish rally as the benchmark KSE-100 index dropped by 3.9% WoW to close at 34,520 with average trading volumes dropping by 14% WoW to 286mn shares/day. KSE-100 index closed on 34,520 by losing -1417 points or -3.9%, while KSE-30 index closed on 21,108 by losing -1004 points or - 4.54%.

The average traded value was pulled down by 9.6%WoW to average at US$108mn, whereas the average traded volume also plummeted by 23.89%WoW to average at 254mn shares.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Pressure on global equities and currencies amid devaluation of the Chinese Yuan
  • International crude oil prices hitting a six-year low
  • Oil stocks continued to tumble amid declining international oil prices, while cherry picking in insurance stocks kept the sector in green
  • Better-than-expected result and dividend announcements for the quarter ended June 2015 by blue chip companies failed to revive market sentiments
  • Foreigners returned net sellers worth US$43mn during the week
  • FDI rising by 308% YoY in July 2015 to US$75mn
  • Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company inking deal to make US$500mn financing available
  • Banking deposits dropping by 5.25% MoM in July 2015
  • PPL announces small-size discovery at Gambat South
  • The upcoming week may see persistent pressure as index heavy E&P OGDC and PPL are expected to announce their results
  • TCP buys 50,000 tons of urea from China
  • KSE approves formal listing of Al‐Shaheer Corporation with trading to start from August 24, 2015
  • The government has decided to increase gas tariff by five to six per cent with effect from Sept 1
  • Cut in oil prices by up to Rs 7.5 per litre expected
  • Oil & Gas fell 8.1%, Cement 4.2% while banks eroded 3.8% of its last week’s value
  • Agreement between Pakistan and Thailand to start negotiations on Free Trade Agreement

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 430.7
Target Price: PKR 542

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 142.3
Target Price: PKR 238.2 

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 337.7
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 141.12
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 347
Target Price: PKR 493

K-Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 7.9
Target Price: PKR 13.3

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 110.0
Target Price: PKR 168.5 

Nishat Chunian Ltd. (NCL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 39.3
Target Price: PKR 45.7 

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 99.8
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 55.1
Target Price: PKR 69.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 171
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 212
Target Price: PKR 270

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 27
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 44
Target Price: PKR 68

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 326
Target Price: PKR 403

Kohat Cement (KOHC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 217
Target Price: PKR 268

Cherat Cement (CHCC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 87.08
Target Price: PKR 109

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. (FFBL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 61.62
Target Price: PKR 49.00

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 101.87
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 242.31
Target Price: PKR 204.00

Indus Motor (INDU) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 1255.06
Target Price: PKR 1023.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 16 Aug, 2015

BUY recommendations are OGDC, POL, PPL, PSO, MARI, KEL, UBL, ABL, NBP, HBL, BAFL, BAHL, NML, NCL, ENGRO, KOHC, CHCC and FECTC.

SELL recommendations are FFBL, HUBCO, NPL, NCPL, PKGP, INDU and HCAR.

Top gainers of last week were: Glaxo Smith Kline Pakistan, TRG Pakistan Ltd, Sui North Gas Pipe., Shifa International Hospitals, ICI Pakistan, Searle Pak, Soneri Bank, Thal Limited, Rafhan Maize Prod. and Adamjee Ins.
    
Top losers of last week were: Attock Refinery Ltd., Punjab Oil, Arif Habib Corp, P.T.C.L.A, Kohinoor Textile, Lafarge Pakistan, Pakgen Power Ltd., Nishat Mills Limited, National Refinery and Kohat Cement.

Top ten volume leaders: KEL, SNGP, PAEL, TRG, JSCL, SSGC, AICL, PIBTL, BOP, FFBL, and EFERT.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market undergoes mild correction amid rising political noise. KSE-100 index closed on 35,937 by losing -286 points or -0.79%, while KSE-30 index closed on 22,112 by losing -320 points or -1.43%.

The KSE-100 index closed the week 0.8% WoW lower with average daily volumes clocking in 13% WoW higher at 333mn shares/day while foreigners remained net buyers worth US$0.9mn.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • MQM (Fourth largest political party) resigning from all three levels of the parliament
  • Pressure on global equities amid devaluation of the Chinese Yuan. Yuan devalued by 2%
  • Oil sector prolonged its bearish rally with international crude oil prices maintaining its downtrend and refineries announcing lower than expected financial results
  • Refineries posted strong margins but results were largely in line with consensus estimates
  • On the E&P front, POL announced earnings that were below expectations largely due to a bloated exploration cost element
  • Slowdown in auto sales (-11% MoM) in July 2015 led to pressure on auto stocks
  • US hinting at non-availability of Coalition Support Fund (CSF) beyond 2015
  • Government seeking two waivers from IMF under its eight review
  • Power sector receivables increasing by 23.5%
  • Remittances rising by 0.8% YoY to US$1.66bn in July 2015
  • Senate body approving ordinance to lower WHT on banking transactions to 0.3% for non-filers till Sep 30, 2015
  • Finance Minister deferring approval of new auto policy
  • Government to continue providing 650MW to K-Electric until renegotiations
  • Pharma sector continued its ascent and increased further by 33 points during the week
  • Foreigner remained net buyers during the week, buying USD0.9mn worth of shares
  • PIB yields declined by up to 49bps in latest auction with 3yr, 5yr and 10yr cut‐off yields at 7.60%, 8.51% and 9.40% respectively
  • National Power Construction Company’s (NPCC) strategic sale fetching PkR2.5bn for GoP’s 88% stake
  • FBR targets 1.05mn income tax returns in 2015
  • Mangla refurbishment project to add 310MW to national grid

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 156.98
Target Price: PKR 238.2 

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 360.19
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 152.29
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 370.8
Target Price: PKR 493

MARI Petroleum (MARI) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 434.3
Target Price: PKR 625

K-Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 8.4
Target Price: PKR 13.3

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 179.91
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 105.51
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 57.22
Target Price: PKR 69.0

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 222.56
Target Price: PKR 270

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 27.61
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 44.71
Target Price: PKR 68

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 116.12
Target Price: PKR 168.5 

Nishat Chunian Ltd. (NCL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 41.31
Target Price: PKR 45.7 

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 340.19
Target Price: PKR 403

Kohat Cement (KOHC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 230
Target Price: PKR 268

Cherat Cement (CHCC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 90.9
Target Price: PKR 109

Fecto Cement (FECTC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 72.1
Target Price: PKR 89

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. (FFBL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 62.44
Target Price: PKR 49.00

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 97.54
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 59.74
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 59.70
Target Price: PKR 43 

Pakgen Power Ltd (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 30.92
Target Price: PKR 24

Indus Motor (INDU) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 1280.00
Target Price: PKR 1023.00

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 263.49
Target Price: PKR 204.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 10 Aug, 2015

BUY recommendations are OGDC, POL, PPL, PSO, MARI, KEL, UBL, ABL, NBP, HBL, BAFL, BAHL, NML, NCL and ENGRO.

SELL recommendations are FFBL, HUBCO, NPL, NCPL, PKGP, INDU and HCAR

Top gainers of last week were: Punjab Oil, National Refinery, Ghani Glass Ltd, Pak Suzuki Motor, Searle Pak, Dawood Hercules Chem, Fauji Fert Bin, Kohat Cement, EFU Life Assur Ltd. and Pak Elektron.
    
Top losers of last week were: Jubilee Gen Ins, TRG Pakistan Ltd, Service Indus, Sui South Gas, Archroma Pakistan, Sui North Gas Pipe., Colgate Palmolive, Bannu Woollen, Packages Limited and Stand.Chart.Bank.

Top ten volume leaders: SHFA, PAEL, KAPCO, PKGS, RMPL, MCB, LPCL, FML, EFERT, EFOODS and MLCF.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market continued its bullish momentum gaining 481 points (1.3%) during the week. Market crossed the psychological barrier of 36k points to close the week at 36,222pts (+481 points). KSE-100 index closed on 3 6,223 by gaining 481 points or 1.35%, while KSE-30 index closed on 22,432 by gaining 193 points or 0.87%.

Trading activities were largely supported by blue chips where average traded value increased by 5% to US$133mn. However, average volume went down to 295mn shares per day amid low interest in 2nd or 3rd tier stocks.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Corporate earnings took a front seat during the week, where ABL and UBL posted healthy results while key fertilizer stocks (FFC, FFBL) appeared as nets loser with below par results
  • The auto sector posted enormous results (HCAR and PSMC) for the period ending June
  • Announcement of corporate results (EFERT, POL, MCB, APL) are likely to be the sentiment movers in the upcoming week
  • Inflation determined at 1.8% and below market consensus also shifted investors’ focus towards cement and other leverage sector despite lower dispatches for the period
  • Pakistan and IMF official are meeting on a quarterly review of economic performance, Pakistani authorities have reportedly informed the IMF of the possibility of not implementing the 0.6% withholding tax on all bank transactions
  • World Bank’s assistance offer worth US$2bn
  • Soft inflation numbers for July 2015. Lower than expected CPI once again built expectations of another cut in the Policy Rate, improving the prospects for leveraged companies as MLCF and PAEL gained 7.3% and 8.6% respectively during the week
  • Foreigners remained net buyers worth US$4.8mn this week
  • SBP cut refinancing rates by 150bps
  • Forex reserves hit all-time high of US$18.82bn
  • FBR will charge enhanced rate of 36.5% sales tax on the supply of electricity generated exclusively through high speed diesel by the IPPs
  • The OGRA has imposed a fine of PKR10.7mn on 12 OOMCs for overcharging the consumers during petrol crisis of January 2015. Twelve companies were found involved in overcharging including PSO, Total Parco and APL, HASCOL, SHELL, Baiko, Bakri and others
  • MoW&P and K‐Electric will hold the second round of talks on August 12, 2015 and agree on a new set of conditions for the continuation of supply of 650MW from the national grid, well informed
  • The general public portion for the IPO of Al Shaheer Corporation has been subscribed 1.15 times
  • Expectations of elevated Iranian oil output by 500k bpd upon lifting of sanctions to pose downside risk to oil prices
  • Cement and Chemical sectors staged comeback, cumulatively adding 316 points to the index during the week. DAWH and Engro contributed 76 and 51 points, respectively in the index
  • Interestingly, Pharma sector also increased by 52 points during the week as market speculated on price increase by drug regulatory authority
  • SECP cuts mutual fund unit charges to 3%
  • Inflation eases to 1.8% in July
  • SECP plans capital market hub in Abbottabad
  • PIA’s privatisation: Government gives fresh commitment to IMF
Following are few BUY recommendations:

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 162.04
Target Price: PKR 238.2 

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 364.09
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 153.49
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 382.25
Target Price: PKR 493

MARI Petroleum (MARI) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 447
Target Price: PKR 625

K-Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 8.21
Target Price: PKR 13.3

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 183.57
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 106.01
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 57.98
Target Price: PKR 69.0

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 228.55
Target Price: PKR 270

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 28.52
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 44.46
Target Price: PKR 68

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 121.5
Target Price: PKR 168.5 

Nishat Chunian Ltd. (NCL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 40.5
Target Price: PKR 45.7 

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 334.4
Target Price: PKR 403

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. (FFBL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 63.98
Target Price: PKR 49.00

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 99.02
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 59.90
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 59.99
Target Price: PKR 43 

Pakgen Power Ltd (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 32.50
Target Price: PKR 24

Indus Motor (INDU) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 1297.74
Target Price: PKR 1023.00

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 272.71
Target Price: PKR 204.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 2 Aug, 2015

BUY recommendations are PSMC, OGDC, POL, PPL,PSO, KEL, NML, NCL, ABL, NBP, UBL, HBL, BAFL, BAHL, ENGRO and EFERT.

SELL recommendations are FFBL, HUBCO, NPL, NCPL, PKGP and INDU

Top gainers of last week were: National Refinery, Attock Refinery Ltd., Jubilee Life Ins, Meezan Bank, Bannu Woollen, Sui South Gas, Honda Atlas Cars, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Fatima Fert.Co. and Pak Oilfields.
    
Top losers of last week were: TRG Pakistan Ltd, Rafhan Maize Prod., Jah.Sidd. Co., Ibrahim Fibres, Fauji Fert Bin, Jubilee Gen Ins, Maple Leaf Cem., Colgate Palmolive, Lafarge Pakistan and Engro Foods Ltd.

Top ten volume leaders: TRG, KEL, PTC, JSCL, SNGP, BOP, PAEL, SCBPL, FFBL, PIBTL, and FCCL.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market witnessed a downfall during the outgoing week as future rollovers and dismal corporate results kept trading under the selling pressure. KSE-100 index closed on 35,742 by losing -73 points or -0.21%, while KSE-30 index closed on 22,239 by gaining 48 points or -0.21%.

The trading activity slowed down considerably during the week with volumes averaging at 162 million shares, down by 27% week on week (WoW). The foreigners turned net buyers during the week, accumulating $3.03 million worth of shares compared to net selling of $7.9 million in the preceding week. According to analysts said the end of future rollover week along with expectations of low inflation numbers next week shall guide the index upwards while the ongoing earnings seasons is likely to keep the interest active in selective stocks.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • The outgoing week at KSE saw higher volatility as rumours regarding the Securities Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) taking notice of abnormal activity in the small cap stocks, created uneasiness in the market
  • The monetary policy announcement, disappointing earnings for the fertiliser sector and lower cement sales were the major setbacks for the bourse, while a recovery for the oil sector and continued strength of the banking sector were enough for the index to make up for lost ground.
  • The week started on a negative note as the index dipped sharply by 640 points on the back of future rollovers and resumption of the heavy decline in the Chinese stock market
  • The banks carried on its upward momentum from last week with the sector rising by 1.1% (+113pts)
  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s decision to keep the discount rate unchanged did not help matters as some market participants had expected a rate cut in the announcement
  • Oil staged a recovery during the week, inching up by 1.6% (+102pts) as full year dividend expectations got the investors excited despite continued bearish international oil price outlook
  • Cement names were seen under pressure for most part of week largely due to substantially depressed off-take amid strong floods and rains across the north region
  • SECP toughening reforms and initiating inquiries regarding specific heavily traded scrips, brokers and international NGO's
  • The refinery stocks were seen buzzing during the week piling up strong gains, driven by earnings excitement and upcoming capacity enhancements
  • Earnings season gained traction with Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC) posting a profit and payout that was well below street estimates
  • The Oil and Gas Development Company’s (OGDC’s) new discovery in Chak-Naurang and short-term stability provided a temporary uptick to the sector, but failed to create a sizeable stir
  • On the other hand, Pakistan Oilfields Limited announced that it would reveal its full year earnings on August 13 which sparked a rally in the oil sector despite global crude oil prices sustaining low levels
  • Headway on a 15 year LNG supply contract with Qatar expected to be finalized by August
  • Senate Standing Committee was informed of legal proceedings being initiated against KEL regarding alleged mismanagement of its transmission system, while KEL informed the exchange of a US$400mn transmission rehabilitation agreement with Siemens and Shanghai Electric
  • K-Electric (KEL) given two weeks to submit reply to NERPA’s show cause notice
  • OGRA has forwarded recommendation decreasing POL product prices, in line with global prices
  • Oil imports fall 21%YoY to US$14.86bn in FY15
  • Total liquid FOREX reserves amounted to US$18.54bn for the week ended July'24, reflecting a decline of US$157mn on account of external debt servicing
  • Pakistan-IMF talks on eighth review begins
  • Pakistan receives US$336mn under CSF from US
  • July 1, 2015 to June 30, 2018: Tax holiday allowed to new manufacturing units in KP & Balochistan
  • With ifs and buts, PTI accepts JC’s findings
  • Work on IP pipeline project restarted: Iranian CG
  • Government to sign 15-year deal to import gas from Qatar
  • Privatization Commission, headed by Mohammad Zubair, has approved appointment of financial advisor to sell 40% of Govt. stake in Kot Addu Power Company (KAPCO), country largest Independent Power Plant (IPP), led by consortium of Dubai Islamic bank
  • Army Chief that army was ready to pay any cost for making CPEC a reality

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 420.8
Target Price: PKR 542

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 162.9
Target Price: PKR 238.2 

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 370.1
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 154.51
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 370.89
Target Price: PKR 493

K-Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 7.9
Target Price: PKR 13.3

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 114.5
Target Price: PKR 168.5 

Nishat Chunian Ltd. (NCL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 37.8
Target Price: PKR 45.7 

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 103.3
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 57.1
Target Price: PKR 69.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 183.11
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 233
Target Price: PKR 270

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 28
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 45
Target Price: PKR 68

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 323.37
Target Price: PKR 403

Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 92.97
Target Price: PKR 103.2

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. (FFBL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 58.53
Target Price: PKR 49.00

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 99.84
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 59.00
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 59.08
Target Price: PKR 43 

Pakgen Power Ltd (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 32.31
Target Price: PKR 24

Indus Motor (INDU) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 1244.99
Target Price: PKR 1023.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram