Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 29 June, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market turned bearish with the onset of future roll-over week. KSE-100 index closed on 3 3,885 3 4,527 by losing -642 points or -1.86% while KSE-30 index closed on 21,206 21,658 by losing -452 points or -2.09%. Volumes are anticipated to remain subdued as Ramadan effect continues to keep the index range bound.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • The National Assembly has approved the Finance Bill’16
  • World Bank approving release of US$500mn to Pakistan on completion of development policy credits (DPC‐2)
  • Outstanding dues of gas utilities against Independent Power Plants (IPPs) reaching PkR120bn
  • Oil and Gas sector posted steep correction during the week owing to subdued international oil price with the sector declining by 5.9% (308 points). OGDC led the charge, contributing a total 180 points to index decline followed by PPL (63 points)
  • Govt to raise gas prices from July 1
  • Chemical sector continued with its bearish trend owing to possible gas tariff hike from 1st July which is expected to negatively affect earnings of the sector. FFC and ENGRO fell by 4.15% and 5.24% respectively during the week
  • Foreigners remained net sellers during the first four days of week selling 10.60mn worth of shares
  • Textile exports decline by 2.85% in May
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Tuesday issued guidelines for opening Asaan accounts with simplified due diligence and minimum of PKR100 initial deposit to enhance the outreach of financial services across the country
  • The political temperature was close to the temperature seen in Karachi in the outgoing week
  • The public offering of 25% units of Dolmen City REIT has been undersubscribed by 48.5%, a bourse filing. At least 71.528mn units of Dolmen City REIT have been subscribed against the offered 138.981mn units for the general public in the last week

Top gainers of last week were: Arif Habib Corp, Nishat Chunian, Lafarge Pakistan, Sui South Gas, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Jah.Sidd. Co., Service Indus, Indus Dyeing, Askari Bank Ltd. and Allied Rental Mod.
    
Top losers of last week were: Pak Tobacco Co., Oil and Gas Deve, K‐Electric, National Foods, Rafhan Maize Prod., Engro Foods Ltd, Kohinoor Textile, EFU General Ins, P.T.C.L.A and Engro Corp.

Top ten volume leaders: KEL, PAEL, TRG, JSCL, SNGP, FFBL, LPCL, FCCL, PTC, PIBTL, and HUMNL.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. (FFBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 54.8
Target Price: PKR 62.4

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 38.1
Target Price: PKR 50.7

Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 87.58 
Target Price: PKR 103.2

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 290.77
Target Price: PKR 338

Engro Foords (EFOODS) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 142.5
Target Price: PKR 177.8

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 437.5
Target Price: PKR 552.00

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 178.2
Target Price: PKR 238.2 

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 393.9
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 163.24
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 382.6
Target Price: PKR 493

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 557.8
Target Price: PKR 706

HASCOL (HASCOL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 111.8
Target Price: PKR 135

MARI Petroleum (MARI) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 462
Target Price: PKR 625

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 507.67
Target Price: PKR 552.00

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 138.62
Target Price: PKR 162

K-Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 8.1
Target Price: PKR 13.3

Pakistan Telecommunication (PTC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 20.0
Target Price: PKR 25.1

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 113.9
Target Price: PKR 168.5 

Nishat Chunian Ltd. (NCL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 36.8
Target Price: PKR 45.7

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 99.5
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

MCB Bank Ltd (MCB) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 239.4
Target Price: PKR 320

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 52.5
Target Price: PKR 69.0

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 207.00
Target Price: PKR 270

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 172.15
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 24.36
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 42.75
Target Price: PKR 68

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 93.49
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 59.50   
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 59.88
Target Price: PKR 43 

Pakgen Power Ltd (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 29.28
Target Price: PKR 24

Indus Motor (INDU) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 1248.79
Target Price: PKR 1023.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 21 June, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market remained flat to end the week at 34,526pts, shedding 0.36% amid slight profit taking before the start of Ramadan. KSE-100 index closed on 3 4,527 by losing -124 points or -0.36% while KSE-30 index closed on 21,658 by losing 95 points or -1.01%.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • A slew of political developments in the outgoing week; spearheaded by controversial remarks from an ex‐president failed to stir the KSE‐100 benchmark
  • The inauguration of country's largest oil refinery complex with a crude oil refining capacity of 120,000 barrels/day, fulfilling around 39% of country's energy needs and cutting down reliance on imports. The refinery built by the Byco Group has attracted in an investment of USD 750mn and produce about 1.6mn tons of Fuel oil, 2.4mn tons of diesel, 1.1mn tons of LPG annually. He also appreciated the Abraaj Group for their investment in refinery
  • CAD deficit for May’15 recorded at US$521mn vs. a surplus of US$223mn in Apr’15 (11MFY15 CAD at US$1.98bn vs. US$3.02bn in 11MFY14)
  • Acceptance of budget proposals including a PkR20bn subsidy on phosphoric fertilizer and extension of income tax exemption on Halal meat units to Jun’17
  • Proposal of PkR5bn subsidy allocation to farmers for purchase of 25,000 tractors in the Punjab budget FY16
  • Increase in RD on the import of sugar from 20% to 40%
  • The banking sector was the star performer of the week after Moody’s upgraded the ratings of 5 major commercial banks from Caa1 to B3 with a stable outlook. The market responded positively to the news and the sector contributed a gain of 50 points to the KSE-100 index
  • Credit ratings upgrade by Moody’s of local‐currency deposits from Caa1 to B3 for five banks (UBL, HBL, MCB, ABL and NBP) as well as the base‐line credit assessments (BCA) for all banks except NBP, again from Caa1 to B3
  • Proposal to exempt tax on capital gains on disposal of securities held for four years or more for Tax year 2015‐16
  • Foreigners remained net sellers of PkR5.65mn vs. net buyers of PkR13.84mn in the previous week
  • The World Bank agreeing to loan $500 million to the country which will help shore up the foreign exchange reserves
  • The automobile and cement sectors also put in a decent performance as provincial budgets revealed extensive spending on tractors for farmers and road construction schemes. Heavy activity was witnessed in specific stocks in both sectors and contributed positively to the index
  • Dewan Cement Limited (DCL) has decided to convert its outstanding loan of Rs500mn into 50mn ordinary shares of Rs10 each
  • The headline of the week was a conspicuous rally in KEL that was catapulted into greener meadows, thanks to foreign interest augmented by handsome support from HNWI’s. The stock achieved a landmark turnover of 217mn shares in a single trading day, shattering all previous records
Top gainers of last week were: Rafhan Maize Prod., Sui North Gas Pipe., Bata (Pak) Ltd., Hum Network Ltd, Nishat Power Ltd, Jubilee Gen Ins, Dawood Hercules Chem, Sui South Gas, Searle Pak and K‐Electric.
    
Top losers of last week were: Fauji Fert Bin, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Honda Atlas Cars, Nishat Chunian, Gul Ahmed, Mari Petroleum, National Bank of Pakistan, EFU Life Assur Ltd., Allied Rental Mod and Shell Pakistan.

Top ten volume leaders: KEL, JSCL, FFBL, TRG, PAEL, PIBTL, PTC, HUMNL, BOP, FCCL, and SCBPL.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 447.5
Target Price: PKR 552.00

Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 89.5
Target Price: PKR 103.2

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. (FFBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 55.9
Target Price: PKR 62.4

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 39.2
Target Price: PKR 50.7

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 193.8
Target Price: PKR 238.2 

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 407.3 
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 170.53
Target Price: PKR 221.00

K-Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 8.7
Target Price: PKR 13.3

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 116.1
Target Price: PKR 168.5 

Nishat Chunian Ltd. (NCL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 33.6
Target Price: PKR 45.7

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 100.9
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 205.1
Target Price: PKR 270

MCB Bank Ltd (MCB) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 239.8
Target Price: PKR 320

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 51.2
Target Price: PKR 69.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 167.1
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 24.96
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 41.30
Target Price: PKR 68

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 500
Target Price: PKR 552.00

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 143
Target Price: PKR 162

Engro Foods Limited (EFOODS) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 152
Target Price: PKR 177.8

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 95.58
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 60.00   
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 59.47
Target Price: PKR 43 

Pakgen Power Ltd (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 30.30
Target Price: PKR 24

Maple Leaf Cement (MLC) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 77.32
Target Price: PKR 65

Indus Motor (INDU) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 1294.70
Target Price: PKR 1023.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 15 June, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market continued its pre‐budget rally posting gains of 1.9%WoW closing at 34,651pts. KSE-100 index closed on 34,651 by gaining 639 points or 1.88% while KSE-30 index closed on 21,879 by gaining 316 points or 1.47%.

Volumes remained buoyant with average daily turnover noted at 313.5mn shares traded, at a stable ‐0.7%WoW. Foreign inflows for the week clocked in at US$13.8mn vs. US$23.5mn for the week before.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • MSCI deciding to include Pakistan in the review list for upgrading Pakistan to MSCI EM status from MSCI FM
  • Moody's upgrading Pakistan's sovereign bond credit rating to B3 and negativity mainly emanating from taxation measures in the Budget FY16
  • Pakistan receiving 11MFY15 remittances of US$16.6bn strengthening 16%YoY
  • FOREX reserves for the week ended 5 Jun'15, came in at US$17.44bn rising 2.4%WoW
  • successful book‐building for Dolmen REIT (oversubscribed 1.57x) and Al‐Shaheer (oversubscribed 2.9x) during the week
  • With Ramzan forthcoming accompanied by shorter trading days and relatively low volumes during the holy month, we expect resilient price performance from stocks with June year‐end
  • Major gains were seen in Chemical (7.2%), Media (6.5%), Engineering (5.5%) and Cement (5.2%), while major fall was seen in Banks (4.5%) during the outgoing week
  • Local mutual funds and foreigners were major net buyers of US$9.3mn and US$13.8mn during the week, while local banks were major net sellers of US$31.5mn
  • Major net buying, during the week, by foreigners was seen in sectors like Food Producers (US$14.1mn) and Chemical (US$7.5mn). However, major selling by foreigners was seen in Technology & Communication (US$8.5mn) and Cement (US$3.2mn)
  • Govt. is planning to sell a Global Bond worth US$1.0 bn after witnessing strong investor confidence, in a bid to further boost the country’s foreign reserves


Top gainers of last week were: FFBL (+27.4%WoW), EPCL (+12.2%WoW), FFC (+11.4%WoW) and LOTCHEM (+10.3%WoW)

Top losers of last week were: MCB (‐9.6%WoW), HMB (‐8.4%WoW), AKBL (‐5.9%WoW) and BAFL (‐5.7%WoW)

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 195
Target Price: PKR 238.2

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 204
Target Price: PKR 270

MCB Bank Ltd (MCB) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 247
Target Price: PKR 320

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 163
Target Price: PKR 194.00

National Bank (NBP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 54.0
Target Price: PKR 69.0

Bank Al‐Habib (BAHL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 40
Target Price: PKR 68

Bank Al‐Falah (BAFL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 25
Target Price: PKR 34

Engro Foods Limited (EFOODS) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 152
Target Price: PKR 177.8

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 142
Target Price: PKR 162

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 121
Target Price: PKR 168.5

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 102
Target Price: PKR 140.0

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 8 June, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market continued to climb upwards as investors went on a buying spree ahead of the budget announcement, resulting in the benchmark KSE-100 index gaining 955 points (2.9%) to close above the 34,000-point barrier during the week ended June 5. KSE-100 index closed on 34,012 by gaining 955 points or 2.89% while KSE-30 index closed on 21,563 by gaining 584 points or 2.78%.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • The budget was finally announced on Friday and confirmed fears of a hike in the capital gains tax and the introduction of CGT on shares held for more than 2 years
  • Towards the end of the week, the budget was announced by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and is likely to have a negative impact on the market in the coming week
  • Taxation measures on larger companies and banks in particular are surely going to be negatively received by investors
  • The week started off on a positive note as inflation numbers for May 2015 were revealed, clocking in at 3.16%
  • The banking and cement sectors were the star performers of the week. Investors flocked to the banking sector which had taken a beating following the discount rate cut announcement. The sector contributed 270 points to the KSE-100’s gains with United Bank, Habib Bank and MCB Bank leading the way
  • The cement sector continued to benefit from news flows regarding the hike in the public sector development budget and impressive sales figures for May. The sector contributed 166 points to the KSE-100’s gains
  • Cements will be a key beneficiary where high allocations to development expenditure (PSDP expenditure up 29%YoY to PkR700bn) and CPEC infrastructure projects, if materialized will boost demand
  • Foreigners made a resounding comeback to the bourse and mopped up a net of $23.5 million worth of equity. The buying was a welcome change after foreigners had offloaded $6.8 million worth of equity in the previous week
  • CPI based inflation for the month clocked in at 3.16%YoY (10MFY15 avg. at 4.6%YoY), higher than 2.11%YoY seen in Apr’15, a trend expected to continue on the back of rising food prices in Ramadan season
  • Increased prices of petroleum products by up to PkR3.5/ltr for the month of Jun'15, pushing the new petrol price to PkR77.8/ltr
  • Nepra approved a refund of PkR2.08/unit to consumers overcharged by power Discos in Mar'15 under the monthly fuel price adjustment mechanism
  • Auto Policy: Import of used cars to be made transparent: Dastgir
  • Power utility KEL sells PKR22bn sukuk
  • PPL ‘Sui Mining’ production extended
  • HBL nears buying NIB asset Management Company for PKR4.1bn
  • The fund, sponsored by Arif Habib REIT Management Ltd, is a component of The Harbour Front office building complex and Dolmen City Mall. The scheme is a listed closed‐end fund launched under the REIT Regulations 2015.The fund size is PKR22.2bn; 75% of it (valuing PKR16.7bn) would be offered to strategic investors and high net worth individuals and the IPO portion would be PKR4.2bn of which 75% would be offered through book building process and PKR1.4bn or 25% in IPO to the general public
  • Cement exports fall 26.13% to 0.56mn tons in May

Top gainers of last week were: TRG Pakistan Ltd, Kohinoor Textile, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Colgate Palmolive, Indus Dyeing, Maple Leaf Cem., EFU Life Assur Ltd., Bannu Woollen, Searle Pak and Nishat Chunian.
    
Top losers of last week were: Pak Tobacco Co., Hum Network Ltd, Atlas Honda Limited, National Foods, Rafhan Maize Prod., Packages Limited, Attock Petroleum, P.T.C.L.A, Punjab Oil and Meezan Bank.

Top ten volume leaders: KEL, TRG, PAEL, FCCL, JSCL, PTC, MLCF, EFERT, BOP, DGKC and PIBTL.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 483.5
Target Price: PKR 552.00

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 135.42
Target Price: PKR 162

Cherat Cement (CHCC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 80.39
Target Price: PKR 95.00 

Engro Foods Limited (EFOODS) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 137.9
Target Price: PKR 177.8

Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 87.4
Target Price: PKR 103.2

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. (FFBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 49.4
Target Price: PKR 62.4

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 39.0
Target Price: PKR 50.7

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 187.5
Target Price: PKR 238.2 

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 389.7 
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 170.36 
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 539.92
Target Price: PKR 626

K-Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 8.1
Target Price: PKR 13.3

Pakistan Telecommunication (PTC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 20.6
Target Price: PKR 25.1

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 113.9
Target Price: PKR 168.5 

Nishat Chunian Ltd. (NCL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 35.1
Target Price: PKR 45.7

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 102.5
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 209.10 
Target Price: PKR 270

MCB Bank Ltd (MCB) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 272.79
Target Price: PKR 320

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 55.0
Target Price: PKR 69.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 157.9 
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Bank Al‐Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 26.47
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al‐Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 42.60
Target Price: PKR 68

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 97.03
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 55.14   
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 61.18
Target Price: PKR 43 

Pakgen Power Ltd (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 30.75
Target Price: PKR 24

Maple Leaf Cement (MLC) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 77.12
Target Price: PKR 65

Indus Motor (INDU) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 1279.30
Target Price: PKR 1023.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram