Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 26 April, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market was bullish triggered primarily by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the strong corporate results. Bull-run in the market continued for the fourth consecutive week. KSE-100 index closed on 3 3,775 by gaining 540 points or 1.63%. While KSE-30 index closed on 21,706 by gaining 542 points or 2.56%. 

The index closed at 33,775 points. ADTO and average daily value traded rose by an impressive 11%/18% WoW to 329mn shares and US$128mn, respectively. FIPI continued to clock in an inflow clocking in at US$7.7mn vs US$7.5mn, up 2.5% WoW.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • The Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) tax collection rose 12.2% to PRs1,766.8bn during 9MFY15 compared to PRs1,574.7bn in the corresponding period last year
  • Aliuddin Ansari, President and Chief Executive Officer of Engro Corporation Limited, has announced to step down from his post effective May 11, 2015. The company is expected to announce Mr. Ansari’s successor in the near future
  • Latest FX reserves position stands at US$17.49bn (over 4‐month import cover) as of April 17th, a 3‐year high, depicting an increase of US$673mn during the week. The SBP reserves increased by US$605mn to US$12.364bn (June‐15 target is US$15.4bn). The increase in reserves is mainly attributed to privatization proceeds of Habib Bank Ltd
  • Cement sector posted strong earnings during 3QFY15 with 2‐5pp growth in gross margins
  • LUCK (+2.5% WoW) witnessed a much‐awaited rally with results above consensus expectations
  • EFERT results announced this week commenced what we believe an impressive earnings season for fertilizer sector Banking results impressed across the board driven by solid interest income on the back of shift in investment mix and relief on cost of funds side
  • With oil prices seemingly recovering from a steep fall over the past few months, E&Ps are expected to keep attracting investors
  • Positive result surprises from the likes of EFOODS, EFERT, LUCK, UBL and DGKC
  • PIB yields for 3yr paper coming off by 44bps, with 5yr and 10yr yields declining by 32bps and 16bps
  • FX reserves rising to US$17.5bn vs.US$16.8bn last week mainly on account of privatization receipts
  • Cotton output up 11% to 14.8m bales
  • Textile exports decline 16pc in March

Top gainers of last week were: Bank Al‐Falah, B.O.Punjab, United Bank, Searle Pak, Soneri Bank, EFU Life Assur Ltd., Engro Foods Ltd, IGI Insurance, Habib Bank Ltd and Askari Bank Ltd.

Top losers of last week were: Pak Tobacco Co., Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Nishat Chunian, Fatima Fert.Co., Service Indus, Colgate Palmolive, K‐Electric, Cherat Cement, Gul Ahmed and Bannu Woollen.

Top ten volume leaders: PAEL, BOP, FCCL, KEL, TRG, JSCL, DGKC, EFOODS, MLCF, AKBL, and HBL.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Pak Suzuki (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 407.1
Target Price: PKR 495.00

Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 83.5
Target Price: PKR 103.2 

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. (FFBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 48.6
Target Price: PKR 62.4  

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 38.0
Target Price: PKR 50.3 

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 183.9
Target Price: PKR 256.5 

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 374.7
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 179
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Pakistan Telecommunication (PTC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 20.8
Target Price: PKR 25.1

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 111.6
Target Price: PKR 168.5 

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 115.9
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 30.4
Target Price: PKR 39.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 196.0
Target Price: PKR 255.0  

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 182.74
Target Price: PKR 194.00

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 60.38
Target Price: PKR 72.00

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 48.03
Target Price: PKR 68.00

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 134.39
Target Price: PKR 162

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 488.49 
Target Price: PKR 552.00

Cherat Cement (CHCC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 74.96
Target Price: PKR 95.00 

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 96.39
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 58.13 
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 63.9 
Target Price: PKR 43 

Pakgen Power Ltd (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 30.2
Target Price: PKR 24

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 20 April, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market Uptrend continues as oil stocks join the party. KSE-100 index closed on 33,234.73 by gaining 884 points or 2.7%.

Although the market increased by 883 points and average traded value drove up by 1.3%WoW to US$137mn, average traded volume also increased by 15%WoW to average at 276mn shares. Market seems positive in the upcoming week, as substantial deals are likely to be sign in Energy and infrastructure projects as much-awaited Chinese Premier Visit to the country is schedule in the upcoming week.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Chinese president to visit Pakistan on April 20, hammer out US$46‐billion deal
  • DG Khan’s agreement with K-Electric for receipt of 40MW to be supplied to its green field project raised alarms within investors, albeit temporarily, fearing escalation of price wars amongst the cement companies
  • Dispatches of majority of cement companies witnessed a steep decline in the quarter while MLCF sold better quantity of its product in the market
  • Results of banking sector are likely to be better than anticipated where possible gains from sale of bonds and lower cost of funding may boost the overall profitability
  • Better result of FFC is anticipated while EFERT result may remain flat
  • The oil prices bounced back in the international market has finally fueled the oil and gas sector
  • ECC of the Cabinet has approved a levy of 17% GST on LNG import
  • As a result of OGDCL failure to install LPG plants at three major oil/gas fields namely Nashpa, Sinjhoro and KunnarPasaki Deep, the country is facing a financial loss of PKR16.6bn/annum
  • Trade deficit widens 15% to US$16bn in July‐March
  • T‐bill yields come off slightly

Top gainers of last week were: TRG Pakistan Ltd, J.D.W.Sugar, Dawood Hercules Chem, Attock Refinery Ltd., Pak Elektron, Pak Petroleum, Nishat Power Ltd, Gul Ahmed, Arif Habib Corp and Nishat Chunian Power.

Top losers of last week were: P.T.C.L.A, Nestle Pakistan, Attock Cement Ltd, Indus Dyeing, Rafhan Maize Prod., Archroma Pakistan, Ghani Gases Ltd, Atlas Battery, Meezan Bank and Jubilee Gen Ins.

Top ten volume leaders: KEL, JSCL, TRG, PAEL, FCCL, MLCF, BOP, PIBTL, DGKC, LPCL and PTC.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 185.20
Target Price: PKR 256.5 

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 374.73
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 179.21
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 529.63
Target Price: PKR 626.00

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 111.48
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 185.19
Target Price: PKR 255.0

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 27.19
Target Price: PKR 39.00

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 168.09
Target Price: PKR 194.00

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 58.58
Target Price: PKR 72.00

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 45.88 
Target Price: PKR 68.00

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 476.61
Target Price: PKR 552.00

Cherat Cement (CHCC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 79.98
Target Price: PKR 95.00 

Pak Suzuki (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 397.82
Target Price: PKR 495.00

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 91.64
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 60.35
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 61.83 
Target Price: PKR 43 

Pakgen Power Ltd (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 31.00  
Target Price: PKR 24

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 12 April, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market followed up on last week’s bull run by gaining another 3% WoW behind positive macro and corporate catalysts to close at 32,351 points. KSE-100 index closed on 32,351 by gaining 937 points or 2.98% while KSE-30 index closed on 20,515 by gaining 629 points or 3.16%.

While ADTO fell 5% WoW to 240mn shares, value traded inched up by 15% WoW to US$135mn/day as investors preferred to trade undervalued blue chips. Foreigners liquidated US$6.5mn from the market this week, as opposed to investing US$4.1mn last week.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • The HBL privatization deal ending expected to fetch ~US$1bn at a floor price of PkR166/sh
  • Total Fx reserves reaching US$16.7bn on receipt of the US$501.4mn tranche from IMF
  • Launch of the National Custodial Services (NCS) that provides capital market investors an option to directly settle their trades and transactions with the NCCPL
  • Electricity tariff reduction by PkR4.43/unit for DISCOs, except K‐Electric, to be effective from May’15
  • The Government of Sindh has challenged the Federal govt over the lack of involvement in the decisions pertaining to the import of LNG, Gas Development Surcharge (GDS), and Gas Infrastructure Development Cess (GIDC)
  • Pakistan Oilfields Ltd (POL) has notified revision in oil & gas production from discovery well at Mardankhel located at Tal block
  • Total Cement dispatches are up 4% to 25.65mn tons in 9MFY15, compared to 24.78mn tons in the same period last year, as per APCMA data
  • News reports suggest that the government is considering introducing a uniform gas tariff of PRs750/mmbtu for all sectors from July‐15
  • SBP reserves reach US$11.6bn
  • On the political front, Yemen crisis dominated the news flow this week, with a key feature being an opposition party (Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf)’s comeback in the parliament after a 7‐month long boycott, for sessions called to discuss Pakistan’s role in the Yemen conflict
  • Handsome new discoveries at the TAL block kept both POL and PPL in race mode as these stocks showed a stout recovery in their prices despite volatility in oil prices
  • PTC resurfaced after a long break as chatter of the ICH being reformed excited market participants
  • The major gainers of the week featured MARI and POL that gained momentum on account of bullish sentiments in crude, while strong results expectations propelled PAEL into a fresh trail of advances
  • Cotton output hits record high of 14.83 mn bales

Top gainers of last week were: Jah.Sidd. Co., Kohinoor Textile, Punjab Oil, Kohat Cement, TRG Pakistan Ltd, Pak Elektron, Mari Petroleum, Pak Oilfields, Atlas Honda Limited and Archroma Pakistan.

Top losers of last week were: Jubilee Gen Ins, Lafarge Pakistan, Shifa International Hospitals, EFU Life Assur Ltd., Habib Metro Bank, Pioneer Cement, Soneri Bank, EFU General Ins, Stand.Chart.Bank and Rafhan Maize Prod.

Top ten volume leaders: PAEL, MLCF, JSCL, TRG, FCCL, HUMNL, PIBTL, KEL, DGKC, BOP and ENGRO.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 477.7
Target Price: PKR 552.00

Cherat Cement (CHCC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 80.87
Target Price: PKR 95.00

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 40.0
Target Price: PKR 50.3

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. (FFBL) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 49.7
Target Price: PKR 62.4

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 175.3
Target Price: PKR 256.5

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 348.7
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 163.91
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 541.18
Target Price: PKR 626.00

Nishat Mills (NML) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 114.1
Target Price: PKR 163.5

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 105.6
Target Price: PKR 140.0

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 26.8
Target Price: PKR 39.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 184.4
Target Price: PKR 255.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 160.7
Target Price: PKR 194.00

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 58.58
Target Price: PKR 72.00

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 45.04
Target Price: PKR 68.00

Pak Suzuki (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 394.35
Target Price: PKR 495.00

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 91.25
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 55.20
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 57.32
Target Price: PKR 43

Pakgen Power Ltd (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 30.35
Target Price: PKR 24

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 5 April, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market regain momentum during the week, where index jump over 30k barrier to close the week at 31,413pts up 4.9%WoW. KSE-100 index closed on 31,414 by gaining 1456 points or 4.86% while KSE-30 index closed on 19,886 by gaining 817 points or 4.28%.

March is always considered to be the most volatile month in the history of Pakistan’s stock market. We believe stock market is likely to perform well in the upcoming days especially when the inflation is heading towards its lower levels, return on alternative assets (fixed income) may not be generating returns and cost of money become exceptionally cheap. Last week activity at the bourse picked up with average daily volumes clocking in at 254mn, up 45% WoW, while average daily value increased by 27% WoW to Rs12bn (US$117.5mn).

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Government, PTI sign accord to set up Judicial Commission
  • IMF release US$500mn tranche to country along with multi-year low inflation (2.5% in Mar’15) fueled the positive sentiment as the index closed on a positive trajectory
  • Amongst key sectors, major buying was seen in Technology, General Industries, Banks and Cement sector which were up by 7-10% WoW
  • The oil sector came under pressure on the back of possible Iran/US negotiation; hence investors shy away from the sector
  • The Sindh government announced its strong opposition to the FG decision to import LNG. CM Sindh government will challenge in SCP the FG decision to import LNG
  • The country has achieved the revised cotton target of 13.48 (89.38%) mn bales set for the outgoing season FY14‐15, but will fall short of the original target of 15.1mn bales
  • ECC of the Cabinet has lifted ban on import of wheat products and enhanced RD from 20 to 25% on wheat and wheat products to support the local market
  • Government of Pakistan has decided to supply entire imported cargo of 147,800 cubic meters of LNG to M/s Pak Arab Fertilizer, a joint venture of Arif Habib Group and Fatima Group
  • Share of IBI deposits, assets reaches double digits
  • MOL Pakistan, the operator of TAL Block, has made a significant hydrocarbon discovery at exploratory well Mardankhel‐I, which has been drilled and is currently under testing phase, a statement. POL has a 25% pre‐commerciality working interest in the block
  • Government of Pakistan partially increased the prices of petrol and HSD while it made no change in prices of other petroleum products
  • FBR has decided to decrease sales tax from 37% to 32% on high speed diesel oil from April 1, it is learnt. However, the sales tax rate on the remaining POL products would remain unchanged
  • The Government of Pakistan  raised PkR 76bn though MTB auctions with 3mth, 6mth and 12mth cut‐off yields at 7.96 (down 22bps), 7.94% (down 4bps) and 7.83% (stable) respectively
  • International oil prices declined (Brent down 3.77%) after Iran and world powers agreed the “key parameters” of a nuclear deal

Top gainers of last week were: Jah.Sidd. Co., Adamjee Ins, Cherat Cement, Maple Leaf Cement, Habib Metro Bank, National Bank of Pak, Pak Suzuki Motor, Dawood Hercules Chem, Pak Elektron and Pak Int.Bulk Ter.

Top losers of last week were: Indus Dyeing, Service Indus, Colgate Palmolive, Oil and Gas Deve., Pak Services, Archroma Pakistan, Mari Petroleum, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Pak Oilfields and Allied Rental Mod

Top ten volume leaders: KEL, PAEL, BOP, FCCL, TRG, DGKC, MLCF, JSCL, ENGRO, EFERT and PIBTL.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Kot Addu Power Co (KAPCO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 81.94
Target Price: PKR 97.0

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 172.44
Target Price: PKR 256.5

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 312.31
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 149.39
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 104.00
Target Price: PKR 140.0

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 185.62
Target Price: PKR 255.0

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 58.42
Target Price: PKR 72.00

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 160.02
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 26.68
Target Price: PKR 39.00

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 45.74
Target Price: PKR 68.00

MCB Bank Ltd (MCB) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 260.3
Target Price: PKR 310.0

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 477.78
Target Price: PKR 552.00

Cherat Cement (CHCC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 79.32
Target Price: PKR 95.00

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 123.6
Target Price: PKR 153.5 

Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 55.6
Target Price: PKR 61.0

Pak Suzuki (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 399.95
Target Price: PKR 495.00

Engro Fertilizer (EFERT) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 82.6
Target Price: PKR 103.2

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 39.2
Target Price: PKR 50.3

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. (FFBL) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 50.2
Target Price: PKR 62.4

Nishat Mills (NML) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 111.0
Target Price: PKR 163.5

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 87.50
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 55.94
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 56.54
Target Price: PKR 43

Pakgen Power Ltd (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 29.67
Target Price: PKR 24

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram