Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 28 February, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market seems to have reached a point of saturation whereby investors await triggers before taking any fresh positions. KSE-100 index closed on 33,632 by losing -361 points or -1.06% while KSE-30 index closed on 21,917 by losing -222 points or -1.01%.

ADTO fell further 19% WoW to 172mn shares, in line with 22% decline in ADV to US$89mn. FIPI turned sour again, recording an outflow US$9.8mn this week vs US$9.3mn injected previous week.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Cements continued to dwindle during the week as investors resorted to profit taking with the results for companies in this sector being largely in line with market expectations
  • The Fauji twins were catapulted into a new ascent as the group’s diversification drive continues to exalt the market
  • The last leg of the week saw results of banking stalwarts whereby NBP’s payout failed to stir any major ripples in the stock’s price
  • Rabi season: Government likely to import 0.37m tons of urea
  • Shortage of liquidity forced the SBP to inject PKR722bn into the banking system
  • Exports of textile and clothing surged to USD1.207bn in January 2015 compared to USD1.095bn a year ago, an increase of 10.23%, the growth in export proceeds rebounded after witnessing a negative growth of over 6% in Dec 2014, thanks to improved supply of gas and electricity to the sector 
  • Withholding tax exemption on capital gains for foreigners withdrawn
  • The NA Standing Committee approved the amended GIDC bill, 2014, to give a legal cover to the PKR95bn revenue collection target
  • OGRA recommended on up to 15% increase in prices of petroleum products and 7.3% cut in HSD for March
  • Worth PkR2.3bn worth of liquidity being drained by Mughal IPO
  • Fertilizer sector gaining 15%+CYTD as existing investors opt for sector rotation
  • Following the relative bottoming out of global oil prices, retail fuel prices in Pakistan expected to be increased by 2.9% in the coming month coupled with possible imposition of regulatory duty on import of petrol and diesel (5% RD imposed on FO)
  • Foreign reserves for the week ended 20th Feb’15 slipped 1% to US$15.94bn mounting pressure on the exchange rate as the US$ crossed PkR102 in the open‐market
  • Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has refused to give the nod to the proposed increase in gas tariff by 10% to 65% and deferred the plan until April 2015, despite warnings of the financial collapse of gas utilities 
  • To protect local farmers, the National Assembly (NA) Standing Committee on National Food Security and Research has urged the government to impose 100% duty on the import of dry milk by multinational companies 
  • Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) has now ended fix rate of US¢8.5 on all incoming foreign calls and issued a notification of giving an immediate end to the International Clearing House (ICH) charges 
  • Largely results during the week were in line with consensus expectations (including results of NPL, NML, NCPL, UBL, and BAFL) with a few misses (most notably NBP which was marred by higher-than-expected provisioning)


Top gainers of last week were: Indus Motor, Colgate Palmolive, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Fauji Fert Bin, Pak Tobacco Co, Faysal Bank, Hum Network Ltd, Fauji Fertilizer Co., Nishat Power Ltd and EFU General Ins

Top losers of last week were: Grays Of Combridge, Pace (Pak) Ltd., Pakgen Power Ltd., Shezan International Ltd., Archroma Pakistan, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Pakistan Cables, NIB Bank, Kohat Cement and Gul Ahmed.

Top ten volume leaders: JSCL, KEL, MLCF, BOP, FFBL, NBP, ENGRO, EFERT, LPCL, FCCL and DGKC.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 37.35
Target Price: PKR 43

Kot Addu Power Co (KAPCO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 84.01
Target Price: PKR 97.0

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 211.15
Target Price: PKR 256.5

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY  
Current Price: PKR 369.00
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 172.57
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 534.69
Target Price: PKR 626.00

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 108.50
Target Price: PKR 140.0

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 203.71
Target Price: PKR 262.00

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 31.66
Target Price: PKR 39

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 50.03
Target Price: PKR 68.00

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 168.8
Target Price: PKR 210.0

Cherat Cement (CHCC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 73.57
Target Price: PKR 95.00

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 122.7
Target Price: PKR 153.5

Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 53.5
Target Price: PKR 68.0

Pak Suzuki (PSMC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 425.40
Target Price: PKR 495

Nishat Mills (NML) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 124.0
Target Price: PKR 163.5

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 88.82
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 51.47  
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 52.16
Target Price: PKR 43

Pakgen Power Ltd. (PKGP) – SELL
Current hn6Price: PKR 31.06
Target Price: PKR 24.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 23 February, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market was Flat despite strong results & positive newsflow. KSE-100 index closed on 3 3,993 by gaining 50 points or 0.15% while KSE-30 index closed on 22,139 by gaining 143 points or 0.65%.

KSE-100 index moved sideways as earnings season failed to generate excitement at the bourse. The benchmark index ended the week at 33,933pts (↑0.1% WoW) with little changed. The market remained tightly range bound and gave an almost flat closing of 33,993 points (+0.1% WoW), despite a strong set of annual/half yearly results and healthy corporate and macro news-flow. ADTO fell 22% WoW to 212mn shares, in line with 30% decline in ADV to US$115mn. FIPI was positive, clocking in at US$3.3mn vs US$0.8mn last week.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • The results laden week saw the market remaining largely flat as the cement sector pared gains seen earlier on account of increased chatter regarding DGKC’s expansion plans in the south
  • Cements took a beating during the week, with the sector correcting by 2.7%, as price war concerns resurfaced on news flow regarding DG’s expansion. LUCK and DGKC cumulatively pulled the index down by 61pts
  • Strong payout by ENGRO reinvigorated interest in the company; the stock led the value traded charts and pushed the index by 62pts during the week
  • Average daily volumes remained relatively flat, clocking in at 133mn shares (↓6%)
  • After continuous selling in recent weeks, foreigners mopped up shares worth USD9.33mn during the current week
  • Inflation to stay within 4.5%-5.5% range
  • ENGRO to develop 660MW coal based power plants
  • Carte blanche: Oil industry bigwigs may receive a free hand
  • 7MFY15: Current account deficit shrinks USD230mn
  • Pakistan finalizes USD21bn LNG deal with Qatar
  • POL prices may climb up by Rs 4.5 per liter
  • Tyres industry can attract foreign investment
  • Reserves rise to $16.036bn
  • ECP okays 12 nominations for Senate
  • Ahead in time: Govt to implement $51m plan for Tarbela project
  • Results of blue chip IPP’s were largely in line with market expectations, keeping both HUBC and KAPCO in the green
  • On the banking front HBL came in with better than expected cash dividend, probably to make up for a lack of bonus payout. On the mid‐tier level BAHL was in line with street estimates while MEBL posted another positive surprise. NBP remained wanted as investors expect a stout payout from the bank
  • Nepra approves upfront tariff for Port Qasim plant
  • Share purchase: Ismail Industries eyes 24.5% stake in Bank of Khyber
  • K‐Electric pays loans worth PKR18bn
  • 6‐month T‐bills yields decline by 9bp
  • Despite stiff resistance from local manufacturers, the government is likely to cut import duty by 22‐40% across the board on localised and non‐localised car parts for new entrants under the new auto policy in a bid to break the monopoly of existing players
Top gainers of last week were: Bata (Pak) Ltd, Nishat Power Ltd, Nishat Chunian Power, Soneri Bank, Engro Corp, B.O.Punjab, Pak Services, Pakistan Cables, Grays Of Cambridge and Pakgen Power Ltd

Top losers of last week were: Mari Petroleum, Pak Tobacco Co, Stand.Chart.Bank, EFU General Ins, Kohinoor Textile, Cherat Cement, Atlas Honda Limited, Jah.Sid.Co., Jubilee general Ins and Efu Life Assur Ltd

Top ten volume leaders: JSCL, BOP, KEL, FCCL, DGKC, MLCF, ENGRO, TRG, EFERT, LPCL and HUMNL.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Kot Addu Power Co (KAPCO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 82.64
Target Price: PKR 97.0 

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 212.05
Target Price: PKR 284.00

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 380.89
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 175.74
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 539.61
Target Price: PKR 626.00

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 109
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 205.05
Target Price: PKR 262.00

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 32.5
Target Price: PKR 39

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 50.14
Target Price: PKR 68.00 

Cherat Cement (CHCC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 76.67
Target Price: PKR 95.00 

Pak Suzuki (PSMC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 424.14
Target Price: PKR 495

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 123.9
Target Price: PKR 153.5

Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 55.1
Target Price: PKR 68.0 

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 37.3
Target Price: PKR 51.7

Nishat Mills (NML) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 128.1
Target Price: PKR 163.5

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 171.0
Target Price: PKR 210.0

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 87.16
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 49.84 
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Pakgen Power Ltd. (PKGP) – SELL
Current hn6Price: PKR 33.48
Target Price: PKR 24.00

National Bank (NBP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 67.71
Target Price: PKR 53.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 16 February, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market has taken First negative return in 7 weeks. KSE-100 index closed on 33,943 by losing -714 points or -2.06% while KSE-30 index closed on 21,996 by losing -494 points or -2.19%.

With result season yet to pick pace, we expect improved performance going forward may set the stage for a market rebound next week. Prominent companies announcing results in the week ahead include HUBC (Feb 16), ENGRO, DGKC and HBL (all three on Feb 17) and PSO (Feb 19). While PSO could disappoint on possible hefty inventory losses, others can potentially post +ve surprises. In this regard, we would look to add positions in the coming week where broad-brush political & macro backdrop remains supportive of valuation rerating.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • No doubt with oil prices declining towards lower levels, the cost of production may witness considerable reduction, but so far the corporate results for the last quarter of the calendar may not be impacted by the energy cost deceleration
  • Weekly SPI inflation down by 0.27 percent
  • Lower-priced drugs allowed increase
  • Plan to increase textile exports
  • Immovable property: government seeks to consolidate reduced tax, duties into one percent tax
  • 0.4 million tons consumption: January petrol sales hit record high
  • Sell-off plan: PIA operations likely to hit a snag
  • Local production of LPG becomes unviable due to high price'
  • TAPI project likely to be launched in two months
  • Despite positive news flow during the week, incoming results played their part in the sell‐off with Index heavyweight E&P sector and Telecoms (PTC) posting disappointing earnings
  • Jan’15 trade deficit contracted by 41%MoM/51%YoY to ~US$1bn vs. US$2bn avg. monthly deficit in the last 6 months
  • Increase in remittances by 14.6%YoY to US$10.4bn in 7MFY15
  • Locally manufactured auto sales came in at 17,633 units in Jan’15 (+29%YoY), the highest figure for Jan on record with INDU/HCAR posting record high monthly sales
  • Successful completion of the IMF sixth review leading to the release of $518mn tranche
  • Government of Pakistan enhancing regulatory duty on imported luxury, essential items, furnace oil and metal scrap
  • Government of Pakistan announcing Textile Policy (2014‐19), envisaging to double textiles exports from the current level of $13bn to $26bn over the next five years
  • Government of Pakistan will borrow PKR625bn from the banking system in April, an amount which is more than 100% higher than its March target, revealed an official document on Tuesday, as it is to bridge the gap between revenue and expenditures
  • Number of valuable entities declared their financial results in the outgoing weeks with EFERT outdoing the majority of the companies with exceptional payout, Nevertheless news or rumors about the plant shutdown and secondary public offering pushed the stock lower. ABL’s result was quite unexpected with provisioning charge increasing substantially, denting the overall income. The results related to Cherat Group can be considered as impressive, when compared to the stocks price it seems fairly valued. The result of index heavy weight OGDC in the outgoing quarter was fairly lower than anticipated and as a result the E&P sector swallowed the brunt
  • Coal prices in the international market have come down to nearly USD64‐66/ton, which is likely to reduce the cost of production for the cement manufacturers while at the same domestic retention prices remain stable
  • NBP was the highest lender with PKR5.3bn provided to the power sector. FM has provided a sovereign guarantee in respect of a syndicated term finance facility of PKR25bn. HBL participated in the financing with PKR3.390bn and UBL with PKR3.626bn. ABL provided PKR5bn and MCBPKR3bn
  • Engro Fertilizers Karachi‐based EFL is planning new investments and it develops plans to extend its production outside Pakistan in the Middle East and beyond, as the country is experiencing its worst energy crisis in decades due to a continued decline in gas production
  • SBP injected PKR43.7bn in the market through a four‐day open market operation. The central bank offered PKR43.7bn and the banks accepted the entire offer against a rate of return of 8.25%
  • The ECC also approved the long standing “Drug Pricing Policy”. Effective July 1, 2016, annual increase in drug prices shall be linked with CPI of the immediately preceding financial year. Manufacturers and importers could increase their existing maximum retail prices of scheduled drugs up to 50% of CPI (with a cap of 4%) and that of non‐schedule drugs up to 70% of CPI (with a cap of 6%) once in any FY
  • Iran has offered 3,000MW electricity to Pakistan, in addition to 1,100MW for which the previous government had signed an agreement (100MW) and a MoU (1,000MW), and invited of the MoWP to visit Iran in the third week of the current month to firm things up
  • China, Iran and India are said to have offered 6500MW electricity to Islamabad to help it fight off a projected 8500 MW shortfall this summer
  • Power sector receivables cross PKR590bn mark
  • 125mmcfd of LNG to be allocated to CNG outlets in Punjab
  • The Cabinet Committee on Privatization (CCoP) has approved the transaction structure for divestment of government’s 42% stake (609mn shares) in Habib Bank Ltd, country’s largest bank by assets/deposit

Top gainers of last week were: Atlas Honda Limited, Jah.Sidd. Co., Mari Petroleum, Stand.Chart.Bank, Avanceon Ltd, Allied Rental Mod, Pak Tobacco Co, Pakistan Cables, Bata (Pak) Ltd. and Shezan International Ltd.

Top losers of last week were: Pak Services, Jubilee Gen Ins, Hum Network Ltd, Cherat Cement, IGI Insurance, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Pace (Pak) Ltd., Lotte Chemical Pakistan Ltd, NIB Bank and Pakgen Power Ltd.

Top ten volume leaders: JSCL, MLCF, EFERT, ENGRO, FCCL, KEL, TRG, DGKC, HUMNL, AKBL, and BOP.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 37.9
Target Price: PKR 51.7

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 211.2
Target Price: PKR 284.00

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 379.9
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Nishat Mills (NML) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 128.0
Target Price: PKR 163.5

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 109.9
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 172.0
Target Price: PKR 210.0

Kot Addu Power Co (KAPCO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 80.54
Target Price: PKR 97.0 

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 172.11
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 540.00
Target Price: PKR 626.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 201.84
Target Price: PKR 262.00

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 31.98
Target Price: PKR 39

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 49.78
Target Price: PKR 68.00

Cherat Cement (MLCF) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 80.53
Target Price: PKR 95.00 

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 85.63
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 45.49
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Pakgen Power Ltd. (PKGP) – SELL
Current hn6Price: PKR 32.19
Target Price: PKR 24.00

National Bank (NBP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 67.22
Target Price: PKR 53.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Companies Results Feb 10, 2015

NETSOL TECHNOLOGIES LIMITEd (NETSOL)
Profit/Loss: (43.611)
EPS: (2.70)
Bouns/Div: NIL

PAKISTAN TELECOMMUNICATION COMPANY LTD (PTC)
Profit/Loss: (3519.00)
EPS: 1.02
Bouns/Div: 15%

ALLIED BANK LIMITED (ABL)
Profit/Loss: 3458.117
EPS: 13.11
Bouns/Div: 20%

PAK HOTELS DEVELOPERS (PHDL)
Profit/Loss: 37.36
EPS: 2.76
Bouns/Div: 40%

IBL HEALTHCARE LIMITED (IBLHL)
Profit/Loss: 22.685
EPS: 3.39
Bouns/Div: NIL

Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT)
Profit/Loss: 2686.446
EPS: 6.32
Bouns/Div: 30%

OIL and GAS Development (OGDC)
Profit/Loss: 19518.298
EPS: 11.12
Bouns/Div: 20%

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 8 February, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market followed the upward trend in the previous week, the market saw some profit taking during the week under review as the Index remained flat, closing at 34,657pts (up 0.62%WoW). KSE-100 index closed on 3 4,657 by gaining 213 points or 0.62% while KSE-30 index closed on 22,490 by gaining 198 points or 0.89%.

The market sustained its bullish momentum as the benchmark KSE-100 index crossed the psychological barrier of 35,000 during the said week. However, profit taking was seen at these levels. Average trading volumes increased by 10 percent WoW to 328 million shares per day. Market optimism was fueled by (soft January 2015 CPI inflation reading of 3.88 percent YoY, Pakistan successfully completing International Monetary Fund’s sixth review for release of $518 million and cut in National Savings rate by 150 basis points system. Foreigners remained net sellers in the week with an outflow of $42 million, while institutions were active buyers infusing bullish euphoria in the index.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Conclusion of successful talks between Pakistan and IMF over release of the 6th tranche of US$518mn
  • Approval by PC of the sale of 41.5% remaining stake (609.3mn shares) in HBL
  • Slashing of financing rates under EFS from 7.5% to 6% and rates for services charges under LTFF from 9% to 7.5%
  • Request for approval of US$800mn aid for Pakistan’s FY16 budget by the Obama administration
  • Increase in 7MFY15 tax collection by 12%YoY to PkR1.33tn
  • Driven primarily by the result season, volumes are expected to remain on the higher side with following companies scheduled to announce their results in the upcoming week: 1) EFERT (Feb 9), 2) ABL (Feb 10), 3) PTC (Feb 10), and 4) MCB (Feb 12)
  • OGDC’s results announcement soured an otherwise seamless ascent as earnings came in well short of street estimates
  • Increasing cement offtake especially in the north region re‐ignited interest in the sector, while anticipation of stellar earnings kept many stalwarts in the limelight
  • The GoP’s reiterated resolve to address the menace of circular debt unlocked further interest in PSO
  • High yielding Fauji twins in the fertilizer arena were in for another round of price increase as market participants attach high hopes with the group’s diversification initiative bearing fruit
  • KEL kept bleeding as uncertainty prevailed regarding renewal of its power purchase agreement with the centre. The sale of KEL shares by KES power was also undersubscribed as 775mn shares were offloaded against an offer of 1.38bn shares
  • Foreigners remained net sellers in the week with an outflow of USD42mn, while institutions were active buyers infusing bullish euphoria in the index
  • EFERT was seen racing to new highs amid anticipation of strong earnings and initiation of a dividend
  • Monetary easing has kept banks on the sidelines, whereby we expect the sector to take lead as the earnings season progresses with the likelihood of reporting an ascent in earnings due to higher PIB exposure
  • With the earnings season catching pace the market is likely to take direction from results announcements of big ticket companies
  • POL products: prices slashed but GST rate raised. The government wanted to reduce petrol price by as much as PKR10/litre but decided to increase sales tax on petrol due to huge losses the government was incurring under the head of sales tax. The rate of the existing GST (22%) has been increased to 27%
  • The record import of 320,000 tonnes of petrol this month may avert a supply crisis in the near future as prices are going to dip further from Feb 1
  • USD1bn bonds to be launched for overseas Pakistanis
  • NHA would start physical work on Karachi‐Hyderabad Motorway (M‐9) project soon
  • Pakistan’s leading food company has acquired another 16.5mn shares in BOK, increasing its shareholding in the bank to 12.45% from 10.8% earlier. The board of directors of Ismail Industries Limited had approved an expression of interest to control management of the bank in March 2012
  • Obama proposes over USD1bn civil, military aid to Pakistan
  • IMF approves release of 6th tranche of USD518m to Pakistan
  • A rebound in global crude oil prices was also witnessed during the week with the price of Brent crude jumping from $45 to $55 and resulting in recovery in the oil and gas sector

Top gainers of last week were: Jah.Sidd. Co., Avanceon Ltd, P.S.O., Maple Leaf Cem., PICIC Growth, Fauji Cement Company, Stand.Chart.Bank, NIB Bank, Pak Oilfields and Nishat Power Ltd

Top losers of last week were: Century Paper, Sui North Gas Pipe., Bata (Pak) Ltd., Sui South Gas, Searle Pak, Abbott Lab, Rafhan Maize Prod., Allied Rental Mod, Packages Limited and Pioneer Cement.

Top ten volume leaders: KEL, JSCL, FCCL, MLCF, EFERT, HUMNL, CHCC, PGF, BOP, ENGRO, and FFC.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 56.7
Target Price: PKR 68.00

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 387.7
Target Price: PKR 538.3

Nishat Mills (NML) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 132.5
Target Price: PKR 163.5

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 113.1
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

Kot Addu Power Co (KAPCO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 81.41
Target Price: PKR 97.0 

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 217.09
Target Price: PKR 282

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 178.01
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 546.89
Target Price: PKR 626.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 210.42
Target Price: PKR 262.00

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 33.65
Target Price: PKR 39

Pak Suzuki (PSMC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 432.03
Target Price: PKR 495.00

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 86.50
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 47.00
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Pakgen Power Ltd. (PKGP) – SELL
Current hn6Price: PKR 34.22
Target Price: PKR 24.00

National Bank (NBP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 68.99
Target Price: PKR 53.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 1 February, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market continued its rally. KSE-100 index closed on 34,444 by gaining 417 points or 1.23% while KSE-30 index closed on 22,292 by gaining 188 points or 0.85%. With the 100 bps cut in DR, trading activity remained robust however in later week due to deteriorating law and order in the city, average trading volumes declined by 1.3 percent WoW to 298 million shares per day while net foreign buying clocked in at $3.3 million versus last week’s net buying of $1.7 million.

Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation numbers for January 2014, which are expected to be announced on Monday, would likely guide the index in the coming week, while investors were also expected to keenly watch out for foreign flows. Oil prices are likely to be reduced from the onset of month which may dampen the inflation expectation going forward. The investors are up for a ride backed by discount rate cut and lower cost of fuel and energy.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Over the weekend announcement of discount rate cut by 100bps fueled the bull with endless energy. Post DR cut the banking sector witnessed a lackluster interest where investors feel the banking spreads may dent the earnings
  • The result season was kicked‐off on a pessimistic note where E&P companies declared lower earnings on account of crude oil prices
  • PPL, POL and OGDC felt the heat of lower earnings as stock fell down by 3% ‐ 4% followed by ATRL
  • Rest of the stocks including FFC, FFBL, MLCF and HCAR results were in line with analyst anticipation
  • Cement stocks were in a rock & roll mood with CHCC, MLCF, PIOC and KOHC posting greater return on the back of lower cost of fund and fuel prices to push the overall profitability in the upcoming quarters
  • With the start of the new month, PBS is scheduled to declare the inflation numbers which are likely to be lower in the range of 3.94% ‐ 3.98% taking YTD inflation lower to 5.7%‐5.78%. Furthermore oil prices are likely to be reduced from the onset of the month which may dampen the inflation expectation going forward
  • Pakistan is likely to strike a long‐term LNG supply contract with Qatar at an estimated price based on current commodity rates in international market in the range of USD8 to USD10/mmbtu
  • ECC of the Cabinet has approved a subsidy of PKR6bn for the export of 1.2mn tons of surplus wheat available with Punjab and Sindh governments
  • Pakistan Steel to break even by April. With half of the PKR18.5bn bailout package consumed in salaries, the PSM has sought another PKR4.5bn to pay gratuity to its retired employees. This is the crux what PSM MD retired the sub‐committee of the Public Accounts Committee which interestingly endorsed the spending on salaries of the employees. He conceded that the capacity utilization of PSM stood at 30% against 77% committed to avail Rs18.5bn bailout package last year. He claimed that the PSM would reach the breakeven by April as its production is expected to reach 77% of its production capacity
  • Government of Pakistan is to release PKR40bn to PSO for opening a LC to import FO and other petroleum products, MoP that within next 1‐week four ships carrying FO will dock at Karachi Port
  • KEL signed an agreement with Chinese companies to set up 700MW of coal‐fired power plants by 2018, a move that will minimize the utility’s reliance on the electricity supply from the national grid
  • Governor State Bank has urged the country´s Islamic banks to develop ways to reward their customers in line with a surge in the sector´s profitability, or face regulatory action
  • SBP governor stated that the central bank may take regulatory measures to lower the banking industry’s spread, after reviewing the position in Jun’15
  • Tensions in Karachi after the killing of a member of a leading political party resulted in the index receding on Wednesday and ending the week on a dull note on Friday
  • The highly leveraged cement sector and Engro Corporation were the main beneficiaries of the discount rate cut and were the primary driving force behind the market’s gains for the week
  • The cement sector was the star performer of the week owing to the rate cut. Maple Leaf Cement, DG Khan Cement and Lucky Cement led the way, climbing 9.5%, 7.6% and 3.7% respectively. The sector overall contributed 189 points to the index’s gains for the week
  • Foreigners continued to be net buyers, but barely so as they bought a net of $3.3 million worth of equity during the week, up slightly from $1.7 million in the previous week

Top gainers of last week were: Arif Habib Corp, Kohinoor Textile, Cherat Cement, Packages Limited, Kohat Cement, Maple Leaf Cem., EFU Life Assur Ltd., Pioneer Cement, Abbott Lab and Engro Foods Ltd.

Top losers of last week were: J.D.W.Sugar, Shezan International Ltd., Attock Refinery Ltd., Lotte Chemical Pakistan Ltd, Attock Petroleum, Pace (Pak) Ltd., Pakistan Cables, Meezan Bank, Bata (Pak) Ltd. and K‐Electric.

Top ten volume leaders: KEL, MLCF, BOP, LOTCHEM, ENGRO, JSCL, NBP, EFOODS, CHCC, DGKC and FFBL.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 210.94
Target Price: PKR 282

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 366.03
Target Price: PKR 448.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 170.48
Target Price: PKR 221

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 114.37
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 210.47
Target Price: PKR 262.00

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 33.75
Target Price: PKR 39

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 52.61
Target Price: PKR 58.00

Pak Suzuki (PSMC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 429.27
Target Price: PKR 495.00

Engro Polymer Chemicals (EPCL) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 13.1
Target Price: PKR 16.5

Nishat Mills (NML) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 130.7
Target Price: PKR 163.5

Attock Cement Ltd. (ACPL) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 214.59
Target Price: PKR 262.6

D.G. Khan Cement Co. (DGKC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 131.31
Target Price: PKR 149.4

Kohat Cement Company (KOHC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 212.10
Target Price: PKR 223.1

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 297.37
Target Price: PKR 245.00

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 84.14
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Kot Addu Power Co (KAPCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 82.00
Target Price: PKR 65.00

Pakgen Power Ltd. (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 34.38
Target Price: PKR 24.00

National Bank (NBP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 70.07
Target Price: PKR 53.00

Dawood Hercules Limited (DAWH) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 116.5
Target Price: PKR 71.8

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram