Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 28 September, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market Bullish momentum looses steam as KSE stays flat this week. The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its level above the 30,000-point barrier as lack of triggers and limited foreign interest took toll on the benchmark index which fell 310 points (1%) to 29,705 during the week ended September 26.

Average trading volumes fell by 5.5% and stood at 154.6 million shares traded per day, while average daily values rose eight percent and were recorded at Rs8.37 billion. The KSE’s market capitalisation stood at Rs6.92 trillion at the end of the week. In contrast to robust foreign inflow of US$13.2mn last week, FIPI clocked in at US$0.3mn this time around (down 98% WoW).

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Lack of triggers amid growing political tension along with mixed corporate results and declining foreign buying were the major causes of the index’s decline
  • The State Bank of Pakistan also announced the monetary policy, for the next two months, over the previous weekend and kept the discount rate unchanged at 10%, resulting in a collective yawn from the market as the decision was widely expected
  • Gains from financials, including UBL (+3.0%) and HBL (+7.1%), contributed a total of 102 points to the index. However, negativity in oil stocks dragged the index by 218 points (OGDC -4.1%, PPL -1.4%, POL -3.0%). Weak international oil prices coupled with expectations of higher discount on OGDC’s SPO primarily dented investor sentiment
  • Oil and Gas Development Company’s secondary public offering also played a major role in the index’s decline with OGDC alone slashing 117 points off the KSE-100 index
  • The government intends to offload 323 million ordinary shares of the company in a bid to raise $815 million, the largest offering of a government-owned company in eight years
  • The political situation showed no signs of coming to an end as the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) hosted a massive rally in Karachi over the weekend, highlighting popular support for the protests
  • The government remained apathetic towards the protests with the prime minister taking off for New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly summit
  • Foreign buying took a sharp dip and was recorded at only $0.3 million as compared to $13.2 million in the previous week. It was a second week in succession that foreign buying declined and will be a cause of concern for investors going forward
  • After posting YoY growth of 10% in Jul-14, Urea demand for the country maintained its upward trajectory in Aug-14, clocking in at 631ktons, up 22% YoY
  • Saif Power Limited – a new listing on offer: Saif Holding Company, the majority shareholder (63.5%) of Saif Power Limited, offers 48.3mn shares (12.5% of paid up capital). 36.2mn would be offered through book building on 30th September 2014, while the remaining 12mn would be offered to the general public on the price determined through book building
  • The country's current account balance continued to deteriorate and posted a deficit of US$1.37bn during 2MFY15 mainly due to higher goods imports and slow foreign inflows 
  • Pakistan plans to split ailing national flag carrier PIA into two companies and sell control of the core business to a global airline over the next 18 months. However, political opposition to the sell‐off is expected to be intense 
  • KEL also lost 6.13% return on the heels of speculators whispering the rumor of disapproval of the final dividend announced by the company
  • On key earning announcements, NML announced its FY14 earnings that beat market expectations, leading to the scrip rallying up 4.01% in the week
  • The Auto sector continued its ride behind the Yen depreciation (4.16% MTD) where INDU has already jumped by 22% MTD
  • Major development on the GIDC converting to a fee and not a tax is expected to reverse the optimism in FFC and FFBL
  • GoP is expected to announce a reduction in POL prices effective from Oct 1 as the prices in the international market have been on the decline
  • Pakistan’s export of textile and clothing fell by over 5% in the 2MFY15 from a year ago
  • Barclays, a London based banking and financial firm, is in talks to sell its business in Pakistan to HBL
  • The number of broadband subscribers has reached 3.64mn by April this year with addition of around 92,396 connections during the month
  • Interest payments on domestic debt grew by 80.5% to Rs188bn in July 2014 from PKR104bn in the same month last year
  • Finance Minster hinted at delay in fourth IMF installment
  • Foreign exchange reserves rise to US$13.5bn


Top ten gainers of last week were: Archroma Pakistan, Mari Petroleum, Pakistan Cables, Thal Limited, Atlas Honda Limited, Int. Ind.Ltd, Packages Limited, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Century Paper and Attock Refinery Ltd.

Top ten losers of last week were: Cherat Cement, Pak Tobacco Co, Attock Cement Ltd, K‐Electric, TPL Trakker Ltd, NIB Bank, EFU General Ins, Allied Rental Mod, Engro Corp and Jubilee Gen Ins

Top ten volume leaders were: LPCL, KEL, NCL, BOP, BAFL, FABL, DGKC, NML, GLAXO, JSCL, and TRG.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 21 September, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market remained lackluster during the week and Bullish momentum looses steam as KSE stays flat this week. KSE-100 index dipped by 0.09 percent or 29.09 points to close at 30,015.80 points as compared to 30,044.89 of previous week’s closing.

Lack of positive news flow amid floods and political impasse kept buyers and sellers on equal footing with average traded volumes rising 25.3%WoW to 163.7mn/day. Foreigners provided major support to the market this week, as FIPI clocked in at US$13.2mn (down 29% WoW).

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • State Bank of Pakistan has announced the Monetary Policy for next two months and keep the discount rate unchanged
  • Prevailing political impasse, mixed corporate results and wait and see approach of the investor community ahead of State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) resulted in the benchmark Index staying in a tight range
  • Gains from financials, including UBL (+3.0%) and HBL (+7.1%), contributed a total of 102 points to the index. However, negativity in oil stocks dragged the index by 218 points (OGDC -4.1%, PPL -1.4%, POL -3.0%). Weak international oil prices coupled with expectations of higher discount on OGDC’s SPO primarily dented investor sentiment
  • The investors were anxiously waiting for the result of major cement players including DGKC and MLCF. After the acquisition of LPCL by Bestway group, investors were expecting DGKC to announce its long term expansion plans along with the annual result announcement
  • With result season nearly over, lack of news flow towards the market before the Eid is likely to keep the market dull and dry
  • IPPs are in a state of frustration to continue producing power as their outstanding amount has reached PKR 230.6 billion
  • ECC of the Cabinet has decided, in principle, to approve a MoP proposal to import LNG for the CNG sector
  • Pakistan’s first BOT based 660MW Green Field Coal‐Fired Power Plant initiated by KEL is unlikely to be realized as federal government was reluctant to endorse it by giving sovereign guarantee to its sponsors
  • PPL announces second discovery in Sindh. In less than 6weeks after its last discovery in exploratory well Sharf X‐1 in companyoperated Gambat South Block on August 5, PPL has announced another gas‐condensate discovery from exploratory well Adam West X‐1 in Hala Block, District Matiari, Sindh 
  • Lucky Cement to setup 660MW coal‐fired plant
  • PSO does not expect the government to kick off its privatization process anytime soon as the company has not got any clue so far despite the fact that it is on the current privatization list, the company’s MD
  • After a dismal performance in the last 18 months, EFOODS to be heading towards recovery and may even be back in business by the end of 2014 —at least according to its CEO
  • IFC a member of the World Bank Group has agreed to subscribe 15% equity by investing USD 67 million in BAFL
  • Foreign investment declined by 20%
  • Finance Minster hinted at delay in fourth IMF installment
  • Cotton arrivals reached 2.75mn bales till Sep 15, 2014, up 4.73%YoY
  • Foreign exchange reserves rising by US$110mn from last week to US$13.525bn
  • Gains from financials, including United Bank Limited (UBL) (plus 3.0%) and Habib Bank Limited (HBL) (plus 7.1%), contributed a total of 102 points to the index
  • However, negativity in oil stocks dragged the index by 218 points
  • Foreigners continued to remained net buyers mopping up $13.2 milion during the week, relatively lower (-29%) as compared to last week


Top ten gainers of last week were: Pakistan Cables, Allied Rental Mod, Lafarge Pakistan, Jubilee Gen Ins, NIB Bank, Thal Limited, Faysal Bank, Habib Bank Ltd, Pace (Pak) Ltd. and International Steels Ltd.

Top ten losers of last week were: ICI Pakistan, Hum Network Ltd, Oil and Gas Deve, Colgate Palmolive, National Foods, National Refinery, TRG Pakistan Ltd, K‐Electric, Maple Leaf Cem. and Lotte Chemical Pakistan Ltd.

Top ten volume leaders were: LPCL, MLCF, FABL, AKBL, DGKC, NBP, KEL, BAFL, BOP, FCCL and TRG.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 14 September, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market resumed its upward drive and continued to make up for lost ground as the benchmark KSE-100 index soared 531 points (1.8 percent) to close above the 30,000-point barrier during the week ended September 12. KSE-100 index rose by 1.8 percent or 531.11 points to close at 30,044.89 points as compared to 29,513.78 of previous week’s closing.

Volumes dried up during the week, averaging at 74 million shares, down 41 percent Week on Week (WoW) due to continuing deadlock in Islamabad between government and protestors.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Heavy buying in the oil and gas, banking and cement sectors was the highlight of the week as investors shrugged off the ongoing political tension and returned to purchasing stocks
  • Floods in Punjab proved to have a dampening effect and kept trading volumes on a leash
  • The oil and gas sector was the star performer, with both the Oil and Gas Development Company and Pakistan Petroleum Limited outperforming the market
  • The banking sector also claimed its stake as the majority of banks’ share prices climbed following the PIB auction in which yields were on the higher side
  • The cement sector also posted strong gains, climbing 1.7% as cement offtake remains strong after the slowdown during Ramazan
  • With the ongoing political crisis, the government has decided against implementing unpopular policies such as increasing the power tariff by 7% as demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
  • Foreigners continued to remain buyers with net buying of $18.7 million during the week, relatively similar to amount of shares bought during the preceding week
  • The Chinese GoP has set out plans to invest USD50bn by 2017 in new coal‐fired power plant and solar and wind energy units in Gwadar to help stabilize supply in the energy‐deficient country 
  • The launch of Punjab government’s taxi scheme, for which the has already entered into an agreement with the BoP, is reported to have been delayed
  • Gains were primarily led by UBL (+6%), PPL (+3%), OGDC (+1%) and HUBC (+4%) with the said scripts cumulatively contributing +252 points. Banking sector (+2%) remained in limelight during the week due to expectations of increased yield on investments for the sector post PIB auction. Interest was also evident in the oil sector (+2%) with OGDC announcing a sizeable discovery in Saghri concession
  • Volumes dried up during the week, averaging at 74mn shares, down 41% WoW due to continuing deadlock in Islamabad between government and protestors
  • Foreigners continued to remain buyers with net buying of USD18.7mn during the week, relatively similar to amount of shares bought during the preceding week
  • Power tariff: Govt misses IMF deadline, loan tranche in jeopardy
  • Circular debt brought down to PKR238bn, Dar informed
  • According to Moody's, Political strife is credit negative
  • Overseas Pakistanis remit USD2.98bn in July, Aug 2014
  • PKGP announced its 2QCY14 results recently posting EPS of PKR0.73. The decline in earnings emanated from an 89% decline in tariff, coming into effect since Jun-14, and heightened fuel losses
  • BAFL posted strong 1HCY14 earnings primarily due to higher net interest income, backed by increased proportion in PIBs, and impact of DR hike fully reflected on the bank’s asset side
  • PSO announced its result for FY14 posting EPS of PKR80.3, up 74% YoY on the back of higher penal income and inventory gains
  • Market participants would likely track monetary policy scheduled to be announced over the weekend while foreign flows would also guide direction next week


Top ten gainers of last week were: Hum Network Ltd, Shifa International Hospitals, Atlas Honda Limited, GlaxoSmithKline Pak., International Steels Ltd, Int. Ind.Ltd, Javedan Corporation, Abbott Lab, TPL Trakker Ltd and EFU General Ins.

Top ten losers of last week were: Pak Tobacco Co, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Netsol Technologies, Pak Oilfields, Pak Services, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Kohinoor Textile, Jah.Sidd. Co., Colgate Palmolive and Azgard Nine.

Top ten volume leaders were: KEL, MLCF, TRG, FCCL, FABL, DGKC, BOP, PPL, LPCL, JSCL and FFC.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 7 September, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market entered recovery mode after five straight weeks of decline as the improving political situation resulted in the KSE-100 index climbing 946 points (3.3%) to close at 29,513 during the week ended September 5. The 100-Index surged by a total of 946 points, or 3.3 percent, week on week to 29,514 points as against 28,568 points recorded as gross score in the last week.

Average trading volumes shot up 48% and stood at 176 million shares traded per day, while average daily value was recorded at Rs9.38 billion, up 48% over the previous week. The KSE’s market capitalisation stood at Rs6.94 trillion at the end of the week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • With the political situation improving, foreigners also actively participated in the market and bought a net of $18.65 million worth of equity during the week, more than double the $8.5 million net buying in the previous week
  • Strong corporate earnings also aided the index with the cement sector taking the limelight after Lucky Cement, the country’s largest cement manufacturer, announced better-than-expected earnings resulting in a 11% gain in its share price during the week
  • The heavyweight Oil and Gas sector also contributed to the rally as shares like OGDC and POL recovered losses witnessed in the previous month
  • Macroeconomic indicators also played a role in the market’s performance as inflation numbers for the month of August clocked in at 6.99% as compared to 7.88% in July
  • The country’s declining foreign exchange reserves and the falling value of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar were a cause of concern for investors and will be monitored closely moving forwards
  • Lower-than-expected consumer price index inflation of 6.99 percent year on year for August 2014 stirred the expectation of a potential cut in the discount rate in the monetary policy statement due in mid-September
  • Strong corporate announcements kept investor interest intact. Cement, textile and telecom sectors were the major attraction
  • A slight cut in petroleum prices, budget deficit of 5.5 percent for the last fiscal year, 34 percent drop in national savings in FY14 and rise in cotton outputs were the key highlights
  • Engro Powergen Qadirpur Ltd, Pakistan’s only power plant that uses permeate gas as fuel, is carrying out an exercise in collaboration with General Electric to determine the compatibility of low BTU gas from other petroleum fields with its equipment 
  • Lucky Cement has started negotiating financing documents with international financial institutions and companies for its Congo plant, targeting its financial close by the end of this month 
  • Lucky Cement has planned to install two vertical grinding mills at its Karachi plant to enhance productivity and reduce the rising energy costs, it said on Tuesday
  • The government has raised PRs190.27bn through treasury bills auction on Wednesday, beating the top end of its target range, amid strong demand from investors 
  • Pakistan will make a case for stepping up financial resources from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), one of the donors for the muchdelayed Diamer Basha dam project. The president of the manila‐based bank is scheduled to visit Pakistan this month 
  • Government of Pakistan collects PKR600bn from oil, gas sector
  • The Islamic Republic of Pakistan's MoF has selected Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank and Standard Chartered as bookrunners for a US dollar sukuk offering, MoF who asked not to be identified
  • Pakistan to import 600,000 tons of urea for Rabi season
  • NEPRA has notified increase in power tariff by 43 paisas per unit
  • Pakistan and IMF talks to conclude the 4th review on USD 6.67 billion EFF have been stalled, as the ongoing political standoff has put the country into a state of deep freeze, government
  • Pakistan insurance market set for takaful boost
  • Pakistan has sought a non‐commercial funding of USD300 mn from China Exim Bank for 969MW NJHEP as funding gaps are delaying the project which is scheduled to be completed by 2016, well informed sources told Business Recorder


Top ten gainers of last week were: Jah.Sidd. Co., Netsol Technologies, Dawood Hercules Chem, Century Paper, Azgard Nine, Pak Suzuki Motor, ICI Pakistan, Shifa International Hospitals, Lucky Cement and Faysal Bank.

Top ten losers of last week were: National Foods, Pakistan Cables, International Steels Ltd, Shezan International Ltd, Agritech, Meezan Bank, Soneri Bank, Rafhan Maize Prod., Pak.Int.Con. and Habib Bank Ltd.

Top ten volume leaders were: KEL, MLCF, JSCL, BOP, AICL, FABL, DGKC, TRG, FCCL, LPCL, and ABOT.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram