Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 29 Mar, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity was bullish, Banks steal the show on record PIB issuance. KSE - 100 index closed at 27,116.13 points by gaining 350.64 points or 1.3 percent. While KSE – 30 index closed at 19,200.54 by gaining 210.16 points.

Market activity remained lackluster with average daily turnover falling by 19% WoW to 154mn shares; whereas US$ value traded declined 10% WoW to US$77mn. Trading activity further took a plunge during the week with average daily volume of 110mn shares, ↓24% WoW. Foreigners turned net buyers this week and bought shares worth USD0.91mn, as compared to net selling of USD9.5mn during the previous week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • The benchmark index emerged green during the week, gaining 1.3%, primarily led by the banking sector contributing more than 90% of week’s gains
  • UBL led within the sector which added a massive 132 points to the index, whereas OGDC (index heavy) remained in red
  • IMF disburses USD556mn loan tranche. And New loans of USD2.2bn to come in next two months
  • Urea sales for Feb-14 clocked in at 378k tons, down 10% YoY and 39% MoM primarily due to lower imported urea sales. Imported urea sales fell by 74% YoY which was partially offset by increase in sales of Engro Fertilizers. Urea sales for 2MCY14 clocked in at 998k tons, up 7% YoY
  • The upcoming inflation figure expected to be announced next week will set the direction of the market while market participants would also be watchful of foreign flows
  • On the basis of available numbers Y/Y inflation for the month of March may be in the range of 8.6% to 8.7% which may turn the YTD inflation to 8.65%
  • Change in investor mood and selection of sectors where banking sector was back in action with ABL, UBL, HMB, BAHL and FABL moving upwards
  • The GoP executed 15 more petroleum concession agreements and exploration licences with the OGDC. Total area of these blocks is spread over 32,357 square kilometres where at least $39.19 million will be invested
  • PTCL, the country’s largest ICT provider, introduced 4Mbps on Pakistan Day as a minimum benchmark for broadband speeds nationwide, a PTCL press release said on Monday
  • $500 million Eurobonds, first roadshow in Dubai next month
  • HCAR has reduced car prices by PKR30,000‐40,000 effective from March 26, 2014
  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) has announced a gas discovery at Exploration Well, Naushahro Firoz X‐1 in Naushahro Firoz Block, Sindh
  • The Ministry of Finance has suggested that the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) should keep a proposed increase in margins of oil marketing companies (OMCs) and dealers deferred and consider this later when petroleum product prices are on the decline


Top ten gainers of last week were: Rafhan Maize Prod., Pak Tobacco Co.XD, Allied Bank, United Bank, Habib Metro Bank, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, NIB Bank, National Foods, Bank AL‐Habib and Hum Network Ltd.

Top ten losers of last week were: EFU Life Assur Ltd., EFU General Ins, Sui North Gas Pipe., TRG Pakistan Ltd, Sui South Gas, Nishat Mills Limited, Nestle Pakistan, Shifa International Hospitals, Nishat Chunian and Kohinoor Textile.

Top ten volume leaders were: FABL, BOP, TRG, FCCL, MLCF, LPCL, AICL, JSCL, BAFL, and ENGRO.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 23 Mar, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity was bearish, Oil & Gas sector drags index lower. KSE - 100 index closed at 26,765.49 points by losing -358.98 points or -1.32 percent. While KSE – 30 index closed at 18,990.38 by losing -589.05 or -3.01%.

Market activity remained lackluster with average daily turnover falling by 33.2% WoW to 189mn shares; whereas US$ value traded declined 28.6% WoW to US$85mn.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) decision to keep interest rates unchanged in its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) held over the last weekend may also have had a contributing hand in this week’s sluggish equity market, where pre MPS conviction on a rate cut was high
  • The benchmark index lost 1.3% during the week primarily led by OGDC (-6.9%). The last trading day of the week dragged the index into red where the index lost 1.4% after remaining mostly flat during the week. Index heavy OGDC dragged the index by 230 points. While PPL chipped in to the negative momentum (-5.8%) contributing 110 points to the decline
  • Trading activity took a breather during the week with average daily volume of 144mn shares, ↓35% WoW
  • Foreigners’ remained net sellers during the week and sold shares worth USD9.5mn, up from USD3.8mn during the previous week
  • IMF likely to approve third tranche of USD550m for Pakistan
  • Sharp boost in reserves is credit positive: Moody's
  • A steady trickle of foreign selling, where barring a one-off UBL transaction gross foreign selling this week stood at US$47.3mn vs. US$37.3mn buying (net sell: US$10mn)
  • Slowdown in stock specific triggers as the Dec-13 result season has tapered off and Mar-14 results are still about a month off
  • The import of used vehicles (above 800cc to 3,000cc) plunged to 14,903 units in 8MFY14, down 61% YoY from 37,952 units during the same period last year. The massive decline in used cars import brought a respite to the local car industry, which recorded a 3.5% increase in sales during 8MFY14 
  • The Indus Motor Co., assembler of Toyota range of cars and commercial vehicles, has reduced the prices of vehicles by PRs50k‐PRs75k due to the recent strengthening of the rupee against the dollar 
  • FBR decided to withdraw additional 2% GST on auto parts this week and apply the withdrawal retrospectively
  • LSM sector posted modest growth of 2.6%YoY in Jan’14, bringing 7MFY14 LSM growth to 6.05%YoY
  • The federal government has fixed the price of imported urea at Rs1,786 per bag to uniform the market prices after considering all the incidentals and financial cost of the imported urea 
  • Kuwait's Noor Financial Investment Co said the proposed sale of its stake in Karachi‐based Meezan Bank had been blocked by State Bank, which felt the prospective buyer had not met its standards for suitability


Top ten gainers of last week were: Pak Tobacco Co.XD, Sui North Gas Pipe., Sui South Gas, Century Paper, Arif Habib Corp, Int. Ind.Ltd, Pak Reinsurance, International Steels Ltd, Shell Pakistan and Javedan Corporation.

Top ten losers of last week were: Archroma Pakistan, Stand.Chart.Bank, TPL Trakker Ltd, Fauji Fert BinXD, Bank Al‐Falah, Oil and Gas Deve, Pak Suzuki Motor, Lucky Cement, Shifa International Hospitals and Pak Petroleum.

Top ten volume leaders were: FABL, TRG, LPCL, FCCL, SSGC, BAFL, BOP, MLCF, SNGP, and FATIMA.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 15 Mar, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity was bullish. Improved macro picture allows the KSE to close in the green. KSE - 100 index closed at 27,124.47 points by gaining 232.24 points or 0.86 percent. During the week index registered an all‐time high closing of 27,309 points on Tuesday. While KSE – 30 index closed at 19,579.43 by gaining 32.52 or 0.17%.

Average daily volumes clocked in at 283mn shares, up 12%WoW. Trading activity continued to remain strong during the week with average daily volume of 195mn shares, + 24% WoW. Foreigners’ remained net sellers during last week and sold shares worth USD3.79mn, against marginal buying of USD0.33mn last week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • SBP keeps key discount rate unchanged at 10pc. It may lead to Banks outperforming next week with Cements and other leveraged plays e.g. EFERT taking a hit
  • The rupee has appreciated by more than 7 percent since the beginning of the month due to an increase in foreign investment and remittances from overseas Pakistanis as well as several foreign loans aimed at propping up the economy
  • Continued ceasefire with militants also increased the confidence of investors
  • The benchmark index sustained its momentum and gained 1% during the week on the back of 3.9% PKR appreciation against USD
  • Oil stocks (also index heavy) primarily drove index upwards due to optimism on improvement in macros while HUBC and NML correction limited gains as PKR appreciation pulls their earnings down
  • Country receives foreign inflows of over USD3.5bn in FY14. Saudi Arabia gives USD1.5bn to Pakistan, IMF told. Remittances rise to US$ 10 billion. Reserves jump to USD9.4bn. IMP also praised PKR appreciation
  • With the result season largely over, investor attention is likely to return to macros particularly the sustainability of the PkR at sub-PkR100/US$ levels
  • Postponement in the proposed 3G license auction until the last week of April 2014
  • Government of Pakistan invited Expression of Interest for financial advisors for 4 privatizations (the three listed companies are OGDC, PPL and UBL)
  • As per CEO of HUBC, the company has decided to set up a new imported coal‐based power generation plant of 600MW capacity with an investment of US$800mn and will be submitting its letter of intent in this regard to the Pakistan Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB) soon 
  • Engro faced power outage/technical issue with their fertilizer plants, due to which both urea plants were tripped. However this issue is now sorted and the company is in the process of restarting both plants
  • Pakistan’s auto industry, especially engineering companies and vendors, have welcomed assurances by PM that his government would make greater efforts to resolve the problems impeding the auto industry’s growth, a press release from Indus Motors 
  • Summit Bank Limited has launched its Islamic Banking with setting up new branch in Karachi with a plan to convert overall banking operation from conventional to Sharia‐compliant in the next 3‐years
  • Byco has invested over USD800mn on the various projects in the province of Balochistan in recent years out of which more than 50% is foreign investment, CoS Byco Industries Incorporated 
  • China is to invest USD50bn in energy and infrastructure projects in Pakistan till 2017 of which USD35bn investment is anticipated in energy sector


Top ten gainers of last week were: Pak Suzuki Motor, Javedan Corporation, Shell Pakistan, Askari Bank Ltd., TPL Trakker Ltd, Thal Limited, Soneri Bank, Abbott Lab, Grays Of Combridge and Pak Tobacco Co.

Top ten losers of last week were: Bank AL‐Habib, Hub Power, Nishat Chunian, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, National Foods, Nishat Mills Limited, Hum Network Ltd, Feroz 1888 Mills Ltd, TRG Pakistan Ltd and IGI Insurance.

Top ten volume leaders were: LPCL, BOP, TRG, MLCF, KEL, FCCL, JSCL, AICL, AKBL and DGKC.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 8 Mar, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity was bearish. The bulls were triumphant on the bears at the exchange this week, with the index closing in the green all five days. KSE - 100 index closed at 26,892.23 points by gaining 1108.95 points or 4.30 percent. While KSE – 30 index closed at 19,546.91 by gaining 791.73 or 4.22%. Ceasefire from militants and low headline inflation figure rejuvenated the investors’ interest at the bourse, resulting in improved participation.

With market rebounding sharply, volumes also recovered and increased by 48% WoW and averaged at 178mn. Foreigners’ participation remained limited last week, with marginal net buying of USD0.33n, against USD5.5mn last week. Foreign flows will likely guide market direction next week while market participants would also be watchful of talks with militants.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • The benchmark index posted gain of 4.3% during the week on account of improvement in macros and announcement of ceasefire by the militants over the last weekend and government has decided to resume talks with TTP
  • CPI inflation numbers for month of February’14 depicted a M/M deflation of 0.32% while Y/Y inflation was posted at 7.93%
  • The lower inflation and drastic appreciation in PKR against greenback may have surprised lot of investors which boosted the investor confidence
  • Investors are optimistic on the possible reduction in discount rate after viewing the inflation numbers 
  • From the onset of the current month GoP reduced the petroleum prices signaling analyst toward reduction in inflation numbers
  • Blue chip stocks primarily drove index performance with PPL, UBL, OGDC, HUBC and MCB cumulatively contributing 474pts (43%)
  • Makori gas plant becomes operational
  • Local cement sales go up. Impressive growth in local cement sales during February. Owing to the latter, 3 out of top 5 volume leading companies belonged to the cement sector, which further highlights active investor participation
  • LUCK recently announced its 1HFY14 results posting EPS of PKR15.96, up 20% YoY
  • TGL announced its 2QFY14 results last week posting EPS of PKR0.33, down 42% YoY
  • THALL posted EPS of PKR7.38 for 1HFY14, up slightly 3% YoY
  • Pakgen Power Limited (PKGP) posted CY13 EPS of PKR2.98, down 45% YoY. Earnings for the quarter clocked in at PKR0.01, down 99% YoY
  • PSO’s financial result did provide the required thrust or the required energy to market participants
  • Major results included NBP, MEBL and PSMC where NBP result was significantly lower than expected, and the stock thus lost 8% during the week
  • NBP financial results were well below the investor’s anticipation, hence it did impact the scrip performance for a while
  • EFOODS did make a greater come back and hit the PKR106/share level (up 10% W/W)
  • Few bank including HBL, AKBL and UBL were amongst the major gainer
  • Hascol Petroleum Ltd (HPL) is scheduled to be listed on the country’s stock exchanges through an initial public offering (IPO)
  • Pakistan forwarded bills worth US$1.6bn to the US on account of Coalition Support Fund (CSF),
  • Obama seeks US$1 billion for Pakistan in 2015 budget
  • ADB has decided to allocate USD3.25bn under a new lending programmed for next FY13‐16, focusing on reforms in the energy sector and the challenges faced by the state‐owned enterprises
  • GoP formally awarded 8 more MPCAs and MPCLs to foreign and local exploration and production companies
  • China Gezhouba Group Corp/CEEG showed interest in investing USD10bn in energy and infrastructure projects in Pakistan and a meeting was held in. Company will participate in the bidding of Gaddani Coal Project and is also interested in Jamshoro Power Project 
  • Warid official indicate that the ongoing due diligence between Abu Dhabi group and Etisalat for the merger and acquisition of Warid Telecom Pakistan by PTCL have been called off since an agreement could not be reached on the desired valuation for the company


Top ten gainers of last week were: Shell Pakistan, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Habib Bank Ltd, Stand.Chart.Bank, Siemens Pak Engg., Askari Bank Ltd., TRG Pakistan Ltd, IGI Insurance, Engro Foods Ltd and EFU Life Assur Ltd.

Top ten losers of last week were: National Bank of Pak, Nestle Pakistan, Millat Tractors, Ghani Glass, TPL Trakker Ltd, Engro Corp, Shifa International Hospitals, Nishat Power Ltd, Pak Tobacco Co and Agritech.

Top ten volume leaders were: MLCF, LPCL, BOP, TRG, FCCL, BAFL, NBP, DGKC, JSCL and AICL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 1 Mar, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity was lackluster and kept index range bound. The bears finally gave way to stability. KSE - 100 index closed at 2 5,783.28 points by gaining 179.93 points or 0.70 percent. While KSE – 30 index closed at 18,755.18 by gaining 127.59 or 0.68%.

Market activity continued to remain lackluster, with average daily turnover rising by mere 7.0% WoW to 217mn shares; whereas US$ value traded fell 3.8% WoW to US$64mn. Eventful month of February is finally over with a loss of nearly 824 points or 3.1% largely back by weak financial result of major corporate along with geo-political uncertainty that came in to play. We believe prudent investors are likely to wait for the bearish tide to settle before reinvestment in the market.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Continued aerial bombings of terrorist hideouts post the suspension of peace talks with the TTP
  • China’s plans to invest US$1.66bn over the next 2-3 years to fully develop the Gawadar Port
  • TRG posted an astonishing return of 15% in the outgoing week while booking an over 40% return in the month
  • Major results including OGDC, HBL, INDU and LUCK remained largely in line with expectations
  • As the series of Oct-Dec results will soon end with the National Bank of Pakistan, MEBL and PSMC will report results next week
  • PSO financial results can be considered as a power booster for the market
  • Habib Bank Limited (HBL) posted consolidated earnings of PRs22.9bn (EPS: PRs17.15) in CY13, up by 0.8% YoY. 22% YoY higher fee income to PRs8.3bn helped offset 5% YoY decline in net mark‐up income
  • As the series of Oct‐Dec results will soon be behind us with NBP, MEBL and PSMC to report results next week
  • News related to price hike of cement generates hefty interest in cement stocks
  • Government announced the tentative date of April 2014 for auction of 3G spectrum licenses, which was unable to boost telecom stocks
  • The federal government has decided to import 125,000mn metric tons of urea fertilizer for Kharif season 2014, while the MoIP forecasted almost half a million metric tons of urea shortage for the season, revealed official documents 
  • IPO: Hascol (HPL) ready to make stock market debut 
  • Petroleum Exploration, a private sector Pakistani company has made a significant discovery of oil and gas in its Badin South IV Concession Block
  • SBP has granted permission to MEBL (Meezan Bank) to conduct due diligence of HSBC Pakistan operations for its acquisition
  • Pakistan is expected to import a total of 2.5mn bales during the FY14
  • The week saw a net FIPI inflow of a US$5.51mn taking February inflow to US$9.52mn


Top ten gainers of last week were: Pak Tobacco Co, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, TRG Pakistan Ltd, ICI Pakistan, EFU Life Assur Ltd., Lucky Cement, National Foods, Nestle Pakistan, Attock Cement Ltd and Maple Leaf Cement.

Top ten losers of last week were: Jah.Sidd. Co., Tri‐Pack Films Limited, Cherat Cement, Stand.Chart.Bank, Century Paper, Azgard Nine, JS Bank Ltd, Pak Services, Shell Pakistan and Kohinoor Energy.

Top ten volume leaders were: LPCL, TRG, MLCF, JSCL, FCCL, ENGRO, AICL, BOP, DGKC and BAFL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram