Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 22 Feb, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market was bearish because of security risk and disappointing results. This was a 4th negative week in a row at the KSE. This is only the third time in five years that the market has declined for four consecutive weeks (last seen in July 2010 and September 2013). KSE - 100 index closed at 25,603.35 points by losing -790.78 points or -3.0 percent. While KSE – 30 index closed at 18,627.59 by losing -477.22 or -2.50%. Weak market sentiment also reflected in average traded volumes which plunged by 20%WoW to 203 million shares.

Warren Buffett’s one of the most famous quotes “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” clearly differentiates the two classes of investors. The sensible investors may have started selling gradually in the light of fearful benchmark and stock levels.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Government team refuses to attend meeting with TTP spokespersons. Government pulling the plug on peace talks with the Taliban and retaliating against attacks on security forces via military strikes
  • SBP’s foreign reserves rise to US$ 3.1 billion
  • The delay in announcement of decision on OMC margins by the ECC and below expected result announcements by HUBC and KAPCO on the back of higher repair and maintenance costs depressed market sentiment
  • Disappointing results posted by HUBC (-13%) and KAPCO (-10%) on the back of major overhauls and maintenance charges spoiled the mood with both stocks cumulatively dragging the index down by 188pts. Consumers continued their downward trajectory with NESTLE (-12%) also contributing to the decline. Index heavyweights OGDC (-2%) and MCB (-3%) dragged the market further
  • Foreigners remained net buyers during the week, buying shares worth USD2.7mn on a net basis against net sell of USD5.6mn last week
  • Foreign flows and news flow over peace talks with the Taliban are expected to guide the momentum of the market next week. Earning announcements may also set the tone with results for OGDC, HBL, LUCK and NBP due next week
  • Pakistan paying US$147mn to IMF on account of 28th Stand By Arrangement installment
  • Current account (C/A) posting a deficit of US$464mn in January 2014 vs. a deficit of US$283mn recorded in December 2013
  • Large scale manufacturing (LSM) growing by 6.8% in 1HFY14
  • Cotton arrivals reaching 13.24mn till February 15, 2014, up 5%YoY
  • Finance Minister Ishaq Dar hinted on 15th Feb that revenue collection may witness a shortfall in the range of PRs 150 billion to PRs 175 billion for the current fiscal year
  • Pakistan will face 0.5mn tons urea fertiliser shortfall during kharif season CY14 due to the curtailment of natural gas supplies to the fertilizer plants
  • Pak‐China Investment Company will invest in renewable energy and infrastructure development projects in Pakistan. Decision to this effect was made during a meeting of PCICL under FM. Cao Wenjian, MD PCICL, on the occasion briefed the FM that his company has the total assets worth PKR16bn in Pakistan and has been investing in sectors like fuel and energy, ports and shipping


Top ten gainers of last week were: TRG Pakistan Ltd, Lafarge Pakistan, J.D.W.Sugar, Colgate Palmolive, Bata (Pak) Ltd., PICIC Growth, Fauji Fert Bin, Kohinoor Textile, Maple Leaf Cem. and International Steels Ltd.

Top ten losers of last week were: Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Grays Of Combridge, National Foods, IGI Insurance, Nishat Chunian, Century Paper, Mari Petroleum, Soneri Bank, Hub Power and EFU Life Assur Ltd.

Top ten volume leaders were: TRG, LPCL, JSCL, FCCL, ACL, HUBC, ENGRO, BOP, DGKC and ANL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 16 Feb, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market volatile and dropped by 1.1% during the week. This was a 3rd negative week in a row at the KSE. KSE - 100 index closed at 26,394.13 points by losing -287.65 points or -1.1 percent.

Activity fell sharply from last week’s levels, with average daily turnover falling to 255mn shares, down 10% WoW; whereas US$ value traded declined by 2.2% WoW. The week saw a net FIPI outflow of US$5.57mn. According to analysts, market is likely to witness mixed trend next week, as it needed major trigger to push it upwards.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Hungarian Oil and Gas Company, MOL the operator of Tal block is all set to add 28mmcfd gas and 7,600bopd into the system from Makhori East‐III field (Tal Block) from 10th Feb. The country will also have 300tpd of LPG from February 20. Tal Block is jointly being explored by PPL (stake: 27.65%); OGDCL (stake: 27.65%); and POL (stake: 21%)
  • Pakistan is seeking a long‐term oil credit facility of about US$10bn from major oil suppliers Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, in order to address weakening foreign currency reserves and rising circular debt in the energy chain 
  • PSO reverts to buying oil products on FOB basis after court order
  • Corporate results continued to come in this week, with MCB, ABL, DGKC, ECORP, NPL and NML reporting results
  • Quarterly results will continue next week, with PSO, HUBC, KAPCO, UBL and ICI to report results
  • Apart from result announcements, the market is lacking triggers at the moment, and foreign inflows have also reduced
  • The outcome on peace talks with the Taliban is eagerly anticipated by both local and overseas investors
  • FX reserves fell by US$ 341 million during the week, taking SBP reserves at US$ 2.8 billion
  • Pakistan received US$352mn on account of CSF
  • Pakistan paid an IMF installment of US$ 147 million
  • Pakistan says expects to complete Eurobond issue by end‐March
  • Planning Commission has accused FM of delaying financial arrangements for the import of urea from the international market, which is one the reasons for the increase in prices in the local market
  • MCB has announced that the bank has reached an agreement with majority shareholders of BBL to invest in new and existing shares of the Islamic Bank
  • MCB announced that it intends to acquire a 55 percent stake in Burj Bank, pending regulatory approvals
  • Pakistan Steel losses accumulate to PKR103bn
  • The week saw foreign portfolio investment outflows of $5.56 million


Top ten gainers of last week were: Pak Tobacco Co, Rafhan Maize Prod., Dawood Hercules Chem, Askari Bank Ltd., Adamjee Ins, EFU General Ins, Pak Services, Arif Habib Corp, Sui South Gas and Allied Bank.

Top ten losers of last week were: Netsol Technologies, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, J.D.W.Sugar, Century Paper, ICI Pakistan, Thal Limited, National Foods, Int. Ind.Ltd, IGI Insurance and DG Khan Cement.

Top ten volume leaders were: JSCL, FABL, LPCL, FCCL, ENGRO, AICL, BOP, ANL, PTC, and DGKC.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 9 Feb, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market  volatile and dropped by 0.4% during the week that ended on Feb 7th. Market volatility was primarily due to mixed sentiments during the week. KSE - 100 index closed at 26,681.78 points by losing -102.56 points or -0.38 percent with Average daily turnover came off by 5.33%WoW to 284mn shares but this remains a healthy run rate. While KSE - 30 index closed at 19,255.94 points by losing -40.81 or -0.21 percent.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Jan-14 CPI inflation clocking in at 7.9% was a positive while weakness in regional markets limited gains
  • Trading activity remained close to last week levels with KSE-100 trading an average of 170mn shares, +2% from the previous week
  • Buying by foreigners rebounded during the week as the investors bought stocks worth USD6.9mn on net basis as opposed to USD2.3mn during the previous week. In the outgoing week foreign investors invested nearly USD6.84mn in the market
  • Government and TTP committee held first peace talks
  • 10%  of OGDCL shares: sell-off likely to fetch USD850mn
  • Recommendation by the Senate Standing Committee to abolish GST on tractors
  • Announcement by the PTA Chairman that the PTA is targeting the third week of Mar’14 for the 3G/4G auction
  • In the upcoming week number of cement companies and banks are likely to disclose their financial results
  • In the upcoming week DGKC, ABL, ENGRO and MCB are likely to disclose their results where analyst are likely to disclose the earnings estimates soon
  • Thar coal project inaugurated, it's first step towards building capacity PM
  • SBP has decided to implement a uniform standard for cheque printing across the banking industry and prescribed guidelines relating to their layout
  • Experts attributed the crisis in tractor industry to imposition of sales tax, unwarranted increase in tractor prices, withdrawal of subsidies, and unavailability of bank financing
  • Pakistan’s cement exports to Afghanistan are on the decline as uncertainty looms in the neighboring country owing to expected withdrawal of Nato forces, and slow pace of new projects
  • Cement sales rising by 3%YoY in January 2014
  • Foreign exchange reserves increasing by US$23.5mn to US$8.02bn
  • PPL non‐operated well Tajjal South‐01 declared dry


Top ten gainers of last week were: Grays Of Combridge, Feroz 1888 Mills Ltd, Jah.Sidd. Co., Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Dawood Hercules Chem, Cherat Cement, TRG Pakistan Ltd, GlaxoSmithKline Pak., Kohinoor Energy and Allied Rental Mod.

Top ten losers of last week were: Nestle Pakistan, Pak Tobacco Co, Azgard Nine, Tri‐Pack Films Limited, Kohinoor Textile, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Soneri Bank, Ghani Glass, Colgate Palmolive and Attock Petroleum.

Top ten volume leaders were: JSCL, ANL, FCCL, KEL, TRG, BOP, MLCF, PACE, DGKC, and PTC.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 1 Feb, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market sentiment was bearish. KSE - 100 index closed at 26,784.34 points by losing -218.55 points or -0.81 percent with average daily turnover coming off by 3.48%WoW to 299.5mn shares. While KSE - 30 index closed at 19,296.75 points by losing -304.85 or -1.56 percent.

The result season should continue to drive market sentiment going ahead, where key results next week include PTC, EFERT and EPCL. Moreover, with expectations of soft CPI numbers for Jan’14, we expect market sentiment to remain buoyed with leveraged sectors such as Cements and Textiles expected to be in the spotlight.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Strategic dialogue between Pakistan and the US commenced while the US stated that the next tranche of US$352mn under the CSF has been approved with disbursement likely by Feb 6’14
  • Strong recovery in urea and DAP sales seen in 2013
  • Corporate results will continue to drive the market direction, with PTCL and Engro Fertilizer reporting results next week
  • The SBP governor Yaseen Anwar resigned, the third consecutive central bank governor to tender an early resignation
  • IMF announced the next review of Pakistan’s program to be held in Dubai from Feb 1’14 onwards
  • Chinese investors expressed keen interest in Pakistan’s textile space
  • China gives first installment of USD448mn for Neelum‐Jhelum project
  • SSGC has taken a major stride forward in curbing UFG levels, despite adverse conditions prevailing in its operational areas of Sindh and Balochistan
  • Pressure on emerging market equity and currency values was led by the US Fed’s plans to taper off its stimulus more sharply in the months ahead
  • The law & order situation across the country has continued to worsen with the government at a crossroads on whether to push for talks or take a hard-line approach towards terrorists
  • The country’s foreign exchange reserves continue to head down (dropped below US$8.0bn this week) amidst a seemingly infirm plan of action (option of public vs. sole offering of government stake in OGDC, ABL, HBL and UBL debated in the media) on the privatization of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs)


Top ten gainers of last week were: IGI Insurance, Feroz 1888 Mills Ltd, Nestle Pakistan, Packages Limited, Azgard Nine, B.O.Punjab, EFU General Ins, Jubilee Gen Ins, International Steels Ltd and Fauji Cement Company.

Top ten losers of last week were: Pakistan Cables, Rafhan Maize Prod., TPL Trakker Ltd, Grays Of Combridge, Lotte Chemical Pakistan Ltd, Ghani Glass, Engro Foods Ltd, Hum Network Ltd, Thal Limited and Stand.Chart.Bank.

Top ten volume leaders were: ANL, BOP, JSCL, FCCL, LPCL, KESC, MLCF, DGKC, ENGRO and PTC.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram