Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 26 Jan, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market saw some interesting trends at the KSE this week, with the KSE-100 rising by 0.3% WoW, closing at 27,002 points, whereas the KSE All Share Index rose much faster at 1.5% WoW. The stock market achieved a significant milestone this week after the benchmark KSE-100 index managed to cross the 27,000-point barrier to close at an all-time high of 27,002 at the close of trading on January 24. KSE - 100 index closed at 27,002.89 points by gaining +89.04 points or 0.33 percent, while KSE - 30 index closed at 19,601.60 points by losing -96.02 or -0.49 percent. Activity rose slightly from last week’s levels, with average daily turnover increasing to 310 mn shares, up 5% WoW, whereas US$ value traded rose by 23% WoW. The week saw net FIPI inflow of US$24mn, a significant increase from the run-rate of the last few weeks.

According to analysts, The momentum of the market in the upcoming week is likely to be dictated by the spate of results as corporate result season enters its second week. Upcoming results include FFC, FFBL, LOTCHEM and HCAR. Continued regulatory developments could also feature in the upcoming week with an expected decision on OMC margins likely.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • The IMF’s reduction of Net International Reserves (NIR) requirement for Pakistan by US$2bn and subsequent eligibility for the third tranche under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF)
  • Sharp uptick in textile exports for the month of Dec’13, increasing by 25%MoM/20%YoY
  • NEPRA’s declaration terming the Government’s plan of converting IPPs from FO to coal as illegal and refusal to issue a tariff in this regard
  • Offer by the Qatari Government to downward revise the export price for LNG to Pakistan and in this regard PSO’s plans to act as the LNG importer
  • The large‐scale manufacturing sector (LSM) posted an impressive growth of 5.23% in 5MFY14
  • According to SBP, the country's current account balance posted a US$285 million surplus in Dec‐13 as compared to US$572 million deficit in Nov‐13
  • The government raised PRs733bn from the banking system which was much higher than the target of PRs450bn set for this quarter (January‐March, 2014)
  • The country's liquid forex reserves fell by US$149mn during last week
  • Possibly escalation in cement price in the range of PKR 15‐20/share pushed the share prices upwards
  • The payout by banking sector, fertilizer along with oil sector is likely to play a major role in the market
  • The federal government has reportedly decided to wind up NFC and NFML, subsidiaries of MoI&P, due to massive corruption in the handling of imported urea, well informed MoI
  • MTL suspends production. The increase in GST from 10% to 17% since the beginning of the New Year has slowed down tractors sales and forced one of the leading manufacturers to suspend production for 2‐weeks. Meanwhile, tractor vendors are also feeling the pinch and many of them have also shut down production 
  • Sindh government is expected to get a soft loan of USD86mn from the WB for a project to boost agricultural growth in the province
  • APTMA, Punjab has claimed that energy supply to textile industry has resulted in 21% increase to USD215mn in December to December period and now APTMA is hopeful to achieve USD3bn exports out of the capacity, which was earlier closed 
  • PSM has sought release of PKR1.5bn, approved by the ECC, to disburse 45‐day salary of 16,000 employees. PSM that the mills had approached the FM through ministry of industries requesting immediate release of amount ordered by the ECC in its Jan 16 meeting 
  • In the outgoing week money markets depicted relative calm in the wake of a status‐quo being maintained by SBP in DR
  • T‐Bill auction held on Jan 22, 2014 saw PKR730bn being raised against a maturing amount of PKR674bn
  • Several blue-chip companies announced their results during the week including Pakistan Petroleum, the Attock Group companies and Engro Foods
  • Engro Fertilizers made a solid entry at the bourse, closing at its upper circuit breaker during all five trading sessions. The share price of the company rose 27.5% during the week to cap off a largely successful Initial Public Offering of the stock
  • Engro remained in limelight during the week on news of approval of concessionary gas supply. The stock traded 11 percent of total 100-share index’s traded value
  • Foreigners were again net buyers during the week and bought a net of $24 million worth of equity at the bourse, up from $7.6 million in the preceding week
  • Index was primarily dragged by heavyweights OGDC and MCB, which lost 2.6 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, excluding impact of these two stocks the index would have posted a return of 0.9 percent
  • Pakistan becoming eligible for the next International Monetary Fund tranche after time bound target of Net International Reserves was revised downward by $2 billion for end-December 2013


Top ten gainers of last week were: Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Century Paper, Nestle Pakistan, Pak.Int.Con., Feroz 1888 Mills Ltd, Hum Network Ltd, Kohat Cement, Pakistan Cables, Faysal Bank and Cherat Cement.

Top ten losers of last week were: Pace (Pak) Ltd., Pak Tobacco Co., National Foods, National Refinery, Javedan Corporation, Siemens Pak Engg., Thal Limited, Pak Services, Netsol Technologies and Millat Tractors.

Top ten volume leaders were: LPCL, FABL, FCCL, ANL, KESC, PTC, JSCL MLCF, BOP and DGKC.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 17 Jan, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market was bullish and attained another all-time high as SBP keeps DR at 10% (unchanged). KSE - 100 index closed at 26,913.85 points by gaining +425.53 points or 1.61 percent, while KSE - 30 index closed at 19,697.62 points by gaining +199.38 or 1.02 percent.

According to analysts, KSE-100 index movements will likely be guided by foreign participation and result announcements in the upcoming week. Stocks that normally announce payout with Dec-13 results would lure investor interest. The textile sector is likely to remain in the limelight over the coming week on expectations of M&A activity within the sector. Activity fell slightly from last week’s level, with average daily turnover falling to 296mn shares, down 7% WoW, whereas US$ value traded fell by 9% WoW. The week saw a net FIPI inflow of US$7.6mn.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:
  • SBP keep the DR at 10% in line with expectation. Recent SPI numbers were on the lower side hence we can expect lower inflation in the upcoming month
  • GIDC driven hike in urea prices reversed. After a 4‐hour meeting with govt officials, fertilizer producers have agreed to reduce urea prices by PRs114/bag to PRs1786 from PRs1900. Recall urea prices were raised by PRs178/bag to PRs1900/bag early this monthin response to PRs103/mmbtu and PRs50/mmbtu hike in GIDC on feed and fuel gas for fertilizers
  • As per the press release issued by ECC and notice given by Engro Corp, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) has approved 70cents gas pricing for Engro Fertilizer 
  • Remittances rise to USD7.8bn in 1HFY14, up 9.5% YoY
  • Trade deficit dipping by 24%YoY in Dec-13
  • MCB Bank (MCB) announced that it is setting up a wholly owned Islamic Banking subsidiary
  • Engro fertilizer’s (EFERT) stock commenced trading today at the bourse and closed at its upper circuit (+5%) on news that ECC has approved concessionary gas pricing for the company
  • EFERT is likely to continue with its bull run across the week following positive development on concessionary gas pricing, with a spillover positive impact on ENGRO and DAWH scrips
  • Strong December quarterly results expected from EFert, PSO, and FFBL could garner stock-specific interest
  • With a possible flow of USD380mn from CSF in the upcoming week may result in marginal uptick in SBP foreign exchange reserves
  • In the upcoming month GoP is likely to make payment of USD295mn, which is likely to exert pressure on foreign exchange reserves
  • It seems equity investors are waiting for the mouth watering privatization deals where investors are likely to make their fortune in the long term
  • SBP has given a green signal to SMBL to transform its conventional core banking operations into Shariah‐compliant Islamic banking
  • SECP has approved the issuance of the first‐ever listed Sukuk issue for an amount of PKR6bn by KESC
  • Market has performed well during last week, on support of granting Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) Plus status to Pakistan which brought in renewed investors’ interest in the textile sector
Top ten gainers of last week were: Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Jah.Sidd. Co., Feroz 1888 Mills Ltd, TPL Trakker Ltd, Grays Of Combridge, Archroma Pakistan, Netsol Technologie, EFU General Ins, Dawood Hercules Chem and TRG Pakistan Ltd

Top ten losers of last week were: Shell Pakistan, Javedan Corporation, B.O.Punjab, Lafarge Pakistan, Lucky Cement, Millat Tractors, Faysal Bank, Fatima Fert.Co., Allied Bank and Maple Leaf Cem.

Top ten volume leaders were: JSCL, KESC, ANL, TRG, LPCL, FCCL, PACE, LOTCHEM, MLCF and BOP.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 11 Jan, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market was bullish and Bullish momentum lifts index to all time high. KSE - 100 index closed at 26,488.32 points by gaining +441.61 points or +1.70 percent, while KSE - 30 index closed at 19,498.24 points by gaining +142.84 or +0.74 percent.

Activity also improved with KSE-100 trading an average of 183 million shares, +8% from the previous week, while USD value traded jumped 16%. Next week’s trial of Former President Musharraf would likely be in limelight and any political noise may alter sentiment. According to analysts, the market is likely to witness mixed trend next week due to expected correction.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Privatization board approved divestment of GoP's shares in PIA, OGDC, PPL, HBL, UBL, ABL, Heavy Electrical Complex and National Power Construction Company
  • Major stocks like OGDC +1.1%, HBL +10.9% and UBL +3.7% that were approved by privatization commission for divestment led the index rally while Consumers names (NATF +27%, NESTLE +9.5% and PAKT +22%) also contributed to index performance during the week
  • Overall optimism continued during the week on expectations of inflows after IMF’s report suggested satisfaction on implementation of reforms and expectations of no change in DR in the upcoming monetary policy
  • ECC raised concerns over recent urea price hike and concessionary gas to Engro fertilizers
  • ECC also approved Lucky Cement’s investment of USD40mn in Congo
  • Government of Pakistan has appointed new BoI chief
  • Local cement sales for Dec-13 grew by 3.8% YoY 
  • PKGP/LPL and HUBC would likely be the key beneficiaries of coal conversion
  • Lack of financial inflows push SBP reserves down
  • Tractor sales hit by hike in GST
  • Drug prices pushed up by 20 to 80pc despite govt orders
  • Dollar at Rs 106 on open market
  • POL sales increase by 11% in first half of FY14
  • LNG import deal with Yemen likely this month
  • Exporters perturbed at government's inaction to capitalize on GSP plus status
  • Bank deposits rise to Rs 7.5 trillion on MDR
  • Pakistan is yet to receive USD798mn under CSF from the United States for the period from October 2012 to March 2013
  • Following in Engro’s footsteps, FFC raised the price of a 20kg bag of urea to PKR 1,875
  • PTA is granting three months free trial of the next generation technology services to major mobile companies in Pakistan to enable them to improve their preparedness before its complete 
  • SNGPL is seeking a massive PKR69/MMBTU raise in gas tariff, arguing it would be left with no option but to brave losses worth PKR6bn/annum if the requested hike is not put in to place
  • Pakistan is all set to increase its textile exports by 3bn dollars this year since textile sector has improved its production capacities over the last few years, chairman of APTMA, Punjab. APTMA had done its homework before committing to the government to raise the textile exports, which suffered in the past because of various reasons, including power shortage, high markup and limited market access 
  • IMF lifting its FY14E GDP growth outlook for Pakistan to 2.8% (up 0.3% from initial outlook)
  • There are expectations of good dividends from Fauji Group companies such as FFC, FFBL and FCCL kept high interest in these scrips
  • Strong December quarterly results expected from Engro Fertilizer, Pakistan State Oil, Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited and banks could garner stock-specific interest


Top ten gainers of last week were: Lafarge Pakistan, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, National Foods, Pak Tobacco Co.XD, Feroz 1888 Mills Ltd, Ghani Glass, Soneri Bank, Tri‐Pack Films Limited, Shell Pakistan and Shifa International Hospitals.

Top ten losers of last week were: J.D.W.Sugar, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Kohinoor Textile, NIB Bank, Rafhan Maize Prod., Javedan Corporation, P.T.C.L.A, Netsol Technologie, Abbott Lab and Century Paper.

Top ten volume leaders were: LPCL, KESC, ANL, BOP, FCCL, JSCL, MLCF, FABL, DGKC, and NCPL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 5 Jan, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market was bullish and KSE closes at an all time high level. KSE-100 celebrates New Year topping 26,000. KSE - 100 index closed at 26,046.71 points by gaining +788.66 points or +3.12 percent, with average daily traded volumes increasing by 35.3%WoW to 272.3mn shares. KSE - 30 index closed at 19,355.40 points by gaining +510.28 or +2.71 percent.

Average daily turnover improved by 49 percent on week-on-week basis to 272 million shares against 183 million shares, whereas in the rupee terms, the value traded improved by 26 percent on week-on-week basis to Rs8.6 billion against Rs6.8 billion last week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Index performance was primarily driven by lower than expected CPI inflation for Dec-13, which was announced on 1st Jan. Dec-13 CPI inflation clocked in at 9.2% YoY as aggregate prices eased by 1.3% MoM
  • Market participants now expect status quo in the upcoming monetary policy announcement, as opposed to the previous expectations of a 50-100bps hike
  • Activity also picked up with KSE-100 trading an average of 169mn shares, +54% from the previous week, while USD value traded jumped 24%
  • Main index drivers remained the Oil & Gas +2.5% and Banking sector +2% driven by 2.5% and 4.3% gains in OGDC PA and MCB PA respectively
  • There was improvement in FX reserves due to receipt of the second IMF tranche. SBP's reserves improved by US$ 464 million to US$ 3.66 billion
  • Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif reconstituted the board of the Privatization Commission
  • GoP raised GIDS on gas supplies for fertilizer manufacturers and industrial consumers
  • NFDC announced fertilizer offtake and production numbers for Nov-13. Urea offtake increased by 69% YoY in Nov-13 while DAP sales jumped by 63% YoY
  • Pakistan is expected to receive loan disbursements for the Neelum-Jhelum project from this month
  • EU awarded GSP Plus status which boosted the performance of textile sector. In a surprise move
  • SSGCL has suspended 45 mmcfd gas supplies to FFC, owing to low pressure, so as to cope with the domestic sector demand
  • Around 4,000 applicants have fulfilled the criteria of PM Youth Business Loan Scheme, according to banking sources involved in the scrutiny of applications. NBP has finalized 4,000 applications while another 10,000 are in the pipeline. Around 15,000 applications are expected to be finalized in the first week of January which would later be sent to Islamabad 
  • NBP Bangladesh operation is feared to have sustained PKR12bn in losses, which, initial findings of bank’s BoD, is a result of “lax management”, forcing the BoD to order an inquiry as it tries to minimize the damages
  • Suzuki car prices rise by up to PKR 20,000
  • Foreign exchange reserves improving by US$ 431 million to US$ 8.52 billion
  • Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) posting a growth of 5.7%YoY during 4MFY14 compared to the same period last year
  • Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has approved the proposal to hand over the affairs of Peshawar Electric Supply Company (PESCO) to Pakistan Tehrik‐e‐Insaf (PTI)‐led coalition provincial government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 
  • The second quarter of the fiscal year 2014 results were due from the coming week and they are likely to remain good, which will draw investors attention towards buying in such stocks


Top ten gainers of last week were: J.D.W.Sugar, National Foods, Azgard Nine, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Thal Limited, TRG Pakistan Ltd, Pak Tobacco Co, Grays Of Combridge, Jah.Sidd. Co. and Packages Limited.

Top ten losers of last week were: Shifa International Hospitals, Agriautos Industries, Kohinoor Energy, Pakistan Cables, Siemens Pak Engg., Allied Rental Mod, Pak.Int.Con., IGI Insurance, Ghani Glass and Hum Network Ltd.

Top ten volume leaders were: ANL, FCCL, MLCF, JSCL, PTC, DGKC, TRG, BOP, BAFL, and NCPL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram