Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 30 Nov, 2013

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market was bullish and KSE closes at an all time high level. KSE - 100 index closed at  24,302.19 points by gaining 454.62 points or 1.91 percent while average daily traded volumes declined by 25%WoW to 133 million shares. KSE - 30 index closed at 18,246.01 points by gaining 263.36 or 1.46 percent.

We see inflation reading to guide direction early next week while foreign flows that are likely to pick up post thanksgiving holidays will remain crucial for market to sustain and consolidate above 24k. According to analysts, the market might witness a mixed trend next week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • PM Nawaz Sharif announced various tax incentives for businesses to boost investment activity in the country
  • PTA selected VPCML, a foreign consortium, as consultant for the upcoming 3G/4G license auction
  • GoP and ADB signed a US$430mn agreement to strengthen the BISP program
  • Key appointments of national importance were finalized in which the names of Lt. General Raheel Sharif (Chief of Army Staff), Lt. General Rashid Mahmood (Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee) and Justice Tassaduq Jillani (Chief Justice) were approved
  • PM ordered withdrawal of a notification which allowed an increase of up to 15% in medicine prices
  • Foreign exchange reserves dropped to US$8.8bn while SBP reserves fell to a 12-year low of US$3.4bn
  • Ground breaking of 2,200MW nuclear project occurred
  • NFDC figures for October 2013 reported urea offtake at 477k tons, up 104%YoY and down 5%MoM
  • The energy sector's circular debt has soared to PRs185bn and IPPs have once again raised concerns over non‐payment of their dues
  • Protest against Nato supplies restricted foreign investment
  • News regarding additional flow from Makori Field kept the oil sector in the limelight
  • On the back of increase in drugs’ prices, pharma stocks also performed well; however, with the prime minister’s order to cancel the notification positivity diminished
  • Telecom sector also rallied after the short listing of the adviser for the 3G licence auction
  • Investors’ interest was mainly seen in Engro Corp, FCCL, PTC, PSO, and cement stocks


Top ten gainers of last week were: Bata (Pak) Ltd., Rafhan Maize Prod., Grays Of Combridge, Pak Tobacco Co., Nestle Pakistan, Mari Petroleum, Kohinoor Textile, J.D.W.Sugar, ICI Pakistan and Packages Limited.

Top ten losers of last week were: Century Paper, B.O.Punjab, Feroz 1888 Mills Ltd, Soneri Bank, TRG Pakistan Ltd, International Steels Ltd, Adamjee Ins, Jubilee Gen Ins, TPL Trakker Ltd and Jah.Sidd. Co.

Top ten volume leaders were: FCCL, PTC, LPCL, BOP, MLCF, NCPL, ENGRO, DGKC, NCL and NBP.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 23 Nov, 2013

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market was bullish and defies discount rate hike. KSE - 100 index closed at  23,847.57 points by gaining 560.51 points or 2.41 percent with average daily traded volumes witnessing an uptick of 16% WoW to 178 million shares. While KSE - 30 index closed at  17,982.65 points by gaining 334.89. The KSE-100 index for the first time hit the 24k level on Wednesday during the intraday trading while benchmark closed at 23.8k level

Activity improved from last week levels, with average daily turnover rising to 178 million shares, up 10.6% WoW, whereas US$ value traded rose by 32% WoW. The week saw significant FIPI net inflows of US$ 10.3 million.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Pakistan and IMF concluded the first review of the EFF program for release of the second tranche of US$550mn by Dec 2013
  • State Bank of Pakistan reserves fell to a 5-year low of US$ 3.65 billion
  • The Ministry of Petroleum initiated work on a plan to explore shale gas/oil reserves in the country
  • PTA blocked 0.2mn IPs involved in grey traffic in the first month after installation of the IMEI devices while white traffic increased by 8%
  • Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) has inducted two latest, state‐of‐the‐art Boeing 737‐800 into its fleet. The fuel‐efficient aircraft of Boeing 737 NG Family will benefit PIA in terms of fuel efficiency and savings
  • Pakistan International Airlines Corporation (PIA) has penned a deal that involves it raising US$130mn through a Shariah compliant financing facility. The National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) is a major participant in this deal contributing US$60mn
  • NBP has re‐launched its Islamic Banking with tagged "Aitemaad" to extend Sharia financial service
  • Pakistan’s oil production that was 77kbopd (thousand barrels of oil per day) at the beginning of 2013 has reached 82kbopd; a seven percent increase
  • In the outgoing week PTCL breached the PKR 30/share level after a long time. PSO continued to outperform the market as the stock comfortably crossed the PKR300/level and reached a price of PKR 312/share
  • We believe over the weekend the government is likely to make an announcement of the new Army chief and JCSCS which may clear the political hustle bustle
  • The first phase of initial public offering (IPO) of Engro Fertilizer was carried out during the week, with offer of 56.25mn shares of the issue. The issue was oversubscribed by 3.9times. A strike price of PRs28.25/share (floor price: PRs20/share) was determined
  • The PML‐N led government is going to distribute 750,000 laptops among public sector university students all over the country in the next five years
  • In the wake of poor response in filing of tax returns in tax year 2013, the government has exempted the filing of wealth statement and wealth reconciliation statement for taxpayers having less than PKR1mn of income or value of assets 
  • Tractor sales continued to remain in the red while sale of buses, trucks, jeeps and pick‐ups improved in July‐October 2013 as compared to the same period last year
  • Teledensity in Pakistan including fixed, WLL and mobile phone has reached all‐time high level of 75.77% while total mobile service subscribers have reached 129.6mn across the country by the end of September 2013
  • Reduction in Current Account Deficit to US$166mn in October 2013 from US$574mn in September 2013


Top ten gainers of last week were: Pak Tobacco, Shifa International Hospitals, Adamjee Ins, Rafhan Maize Prod., Netsol Technologies, Mari Petroleum, Pak Services, Lafarge Pakistan, Siemens Pak Engg. and IGI Insurance.

Top ten losers of last week were: JS Bank Ltd, B.O.Punjab, Askari Bank Ltd., Feroz 1888 Mills Ltd, Allied Rental Mod, Agriautos Industries, Faysal Bank, NIB Bank, Kohinoor Energy and J.D.W.Sugar.

Top ten volume leaders were: PTC, FCCL, LPCL, JSCL, ENGRO, BOP, DGKC, MLCF, NCPL, and AICL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 14 Nov, 2013

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market remains flattish as 50bp DR hike is announced. KSE – 100 index closed at  23,287 points by losing -80.15 points or -0.3 percent. While KSE – 30 index closed at 17647.76 points by losing -197.34.

Activity improved from last week levels, with average daily turnover rising to 161mn shares, up 28% WoW, whereas US$ value traded rose by 12% WoW. The week saw significant FIPI net inflows continuing of US$11.3mn, although US$8.5mn was accounted for in an off-market transaction of Siemens Pakistan.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • State Bank of Pakistan continues its monetary tightening stance having announced 50bps hike in the Discount Rate (DR) to 10%.
  • In its efforts to curb grey traffic, PTA has blocked more than 200,000 IP addresses, 1,382 mobile SIMs and 3,160 phones / devices through their International Mobile Equipment Identity (IMEI) numbers during the last one month
  • Overseas Pakistani workers sent home US$5.276bn in the first four months of current fiscal year, showing a growth of 6.27% compared with US$4.964bn received in the same period of last year  
  • In the upcoming month government is scheduled to increase the gas tariff in accordance with IMF conditions (possible), which is likely to enhance the cost of production
  • Investors are anxiously waiting for the IPO of Engro Fertilizer via book building process. Majority of the analyst estimate value of the company in the range of PKR27‐35/share. We are still waiting for the ECC decision where government is likely to decide on the concessional gas rates for ENGRO 
  • Surprisingly AICL announced a windfall bonus payout of nearly 182% which is likely to enhance the capital base of the company
  • Iran's state‐owned gas company has said it is ready to revise the price of the commodity for Pakistan. NIGC MD the gas price has not yet been fixed and can be changed A few days ago Iran hinted at scraping deal with Islamabad 
  • Islamabad intends to seek from help from the US for the exploration of gas reserves, as well as credit lines for the construction of the Diamer‐Basha dam, MOP. Technical help is being sought for reliable oil and gas reserves assessment along with technology and expertise to exploit shale gas reserves 
  • KP government, as part of its industrial policy, will provide cheaper electricity to prospective investors to spur industrialization, Provincial minister for industries, commerce and labour
  • Curiosity over acquisition of Warid in the telecom sector of the country is gaining more impetus as the favorite contender, PTCL, confirmed on that it has not yet submitted a ‘binding offer’ to Warid Telecom 
  • IMC increased prices of different Toyota vehicles by PKR21,000 to PKR75,000. APMDA, the price of Toyota Corolla Xli and GLi has been raised by PKR21,000 each followed by PKR35,000 in Toyota Altis and PKR75,000 in Vigo Champ


Top ten gainers of last week were: Shifa International Hospitals, Adamjee Ins, Askari Bank Ltd., B.O.Punjab, National Bank of Pak, Siemens Pak Engg., NIB Bank, Faysal Bank, Habib Bank Ltd and Soneri Bank.

Top ten losers of last week were: Allied Rental Mod, Azgard Nine, Fauji Fertilizer Co., Hub Power, Thal Limited, Pak Services, Hum Network Ltd, Jah.Sidd. Co., ICI Pakistan and Grays Of Cambridge.

Top ten volume leaders were: JSCL, BOP, FCCL, NBP, PTC, MLCF, ENGRO, DGKC, BAFL, and LPCL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 9 Nov, 2013

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market was bullish, Market remains buoyant despite setback to peace talks. KSE – 100 index closed at 23,367.15 points by gaining 718.06 points or 3.17 percent. While KSE – 30 index closed at 17,845.10 points by gaining 606.84 or 3.52 percent. Average daily trading volumes at the local bourse also witnessed an uptick this week, rising by 9.5% WoW to 126mn shares.

Next week will be a shortened week due to Muharram holidays, and although expected IMF approval for the next tranche disbursement may provide a short-term fillip for the market, this would be a good time to reduce exposure to equities. Average daily turnover increased by 10 percent on week-on-week basis to 126 million shares against 115 million, whereas the value traded rose by 19 percent on week-on-week basis.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • The EU Committee on International Trade approving the GSP Plus status for Pakistan, which is expected to be particularly beneficial for the country’s textile exporters. The European Union (EU) has granted duty free market access to Pakistani made‐ups under the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) Plus status with effect from January 1, 2014
  • Pakistan’s textile export would likely enhance by USD500mn to USD1bn annually and the domestic textile industry would become capable to use maximum capacity utilization. However, the main items of the textile sector like bedware, readymade garments and cotton fabric 
  • Ease in tensions between Pakistan and the US after the drone attack, as the cabinet did not take any decision on blockage of Nato supply
  • The week saw significant foreign portfolio investment inflows of $8.3 million against $18 million last week.
  • There are concerns on fx reserves with the World Bank delaying approval of a US$1bn loan to Pakistan sans implementation of energy/fiscal reforms under the IMF program
  • The market also ignored possible fallout on law & order conditions post the death of the TTP leader in a drone strike
  • Killing of the Pakistani Taliban chief in a US drone attack on Saturday, which heightened concerns on Pak-US relations, the future of NATO supply route and Coalition Support Fund (CSF) flows
  • Higher-than consensus CPI inflation number (at 9.08%), which sparked concerns on an impending interest rate hike in the upcoming November Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) 
  • There were talks of a potential early verification of Fertilizer sector Gas Supply Agreements (GSAs) which would bring an end to production uncertainty for the sector
  • Reports emerged that the government is considering increasing marketing margins on white oil products (potential earnings boost for OMCs)
  • APCMA released the latest cement sales figures this week where October 2013 Pak cement offtake was reported at 2.65mn tons, down 4% YoY and 10% MoM on account of fewer working days in the week (Eid holidays)
  • Economic Co‐ordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet, which is scheduled to meet on 5th Nov, will allow transfer of investment of Engro Corporation Limited in Engro Foods Netherlands B.V. to Engro Foods Limited (Pakistan)
  • ECC of the cabinet is likely to give the go‐ahead to a plan that will allocate 130mmcfd to fertilizer plants from OGDC’s Kunnar Pasakhi Deep field in an effort to enhance production of urea in the country 
  • The State Bank of Pakistan has granted due diligence permission to MCB Bank for proposed acquisition of a Kenyan bank. MCB Bank Limited has shown interest in acquiring a bank in Kenya to expand its overseas operations and has successfully got a No Objection Certificate (NOC) from the central bank to conduct due diligence of a small bank in Kenya 
  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves increased by US$10mn to US$9.51bn during the week ended November 1 against US$9.49bn a week ago. However, the reserves held by the SBP witnessed a decline of US$75mn to US$4.22bn against US$4.30bn 
  • Thousands of illegal foreigners, mostly unskilled workers from Asia, are rushing to leave Saudi Arabia before an amnesty expires on Sunday as they risk being fined or even jailed


Top ten gainers of last week were: Jah.Sidd. Co., JS Bank Ltd, Engro Corp, Azgard Nine, Thal Limited, Allied Rental Mod, Nishat Mills Limited, IGI Insurance, Millat Tractorsa nd Hum Network Ltd

Top ten losers of last week were: Faysal Bank, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Shifa International Hospitals, Pak.Int.Con., Agritech, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Kohat Cement, Pak Tobacco Co., Lotte Chemical Pakistan Ltd and Abbott Lab.

Top ten volume leaders were: JSCL, PTC, BOP, FCCL, BAFL, ENGRO, DGKC, BOP, NBP, MLCF, and FATIMA.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 3 Nov, 2013

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market was bullish, on account of above expected corporate results. KSE – 100 index closed at 2 2,649.09 points by gaining 203.5 points or 0.91 percent. While KSE – 30 index closed at 17,238.26 points by gaining 179.96 or 1.05 percent. Average daily turnover fell by 14 percent on week-on-week basis to 115 million shares against 133 million shares, whereas the dollar value fell by nine percent on week-on-week basis.

The KSE-100 Index closed the week at 22,649 points, up by 0.91%WoW with average daily traded volumes clocking in at 115mn shares, down 13.64%WoW. The index heavyweight MCB Bank Limited and the Oil and Gas Development Company Limited remained the major supporters to the rally.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Chief of TTP killed in a drone attack & likely revenge activity by TTP 
  • Expectations of Interest rate hike in upcoming November Monetary Policy
  • Any statements from the IMF team on quarterly review on Pakistan will also be eyed
  • With the MPS expected towards the end of next week, an expected hike in the DR could possibly put the Banking Sector in the limelight while companies with significant leverage could lose out
  • The KSE‐100 rose by 4.3% in the month of Oct‐13, with the main driver of the market being the resumption in foreign portfolio investment, with US$51mn of net portfolio investment during the month
  • PSO (+83%YoY), ENGRO (+1236%YoY) and NML (+48%YoY) were among the key blue chip companies that registered strong earnings growth
  • Interestingly foreign investors bought nearly USD50mn worth of stocks out of which nearly USD41.5mn worth of buying was made in the last ten days of the month while individuals and companies were on the selling side
  • BIPL has planned to issue rights shares up to PKR750mn, as the exemption granted by the SBP for MCR expired on March 31
  • Rising inflation coupled with rupee depreciation minimized the continuous swift import of Chinese brand mobiles and accessories in the first quarter of the 1QFY14 as the overall telecom sector imports declined by 14.46 % 
  • NFDC released its monthly report on 28th Oct, indicating urea sales have jumped 91% YoY to 504k tons while DAP sales were down 19% YoY during the month of Sep‐13 
  • Foreigners aided the index’s growth and the market saw foreign buying worth $18 million during the week
  • The country's liquid foreign reserves rose by US$267mn mainly due to arrival of Collation Support Fund (CSF) inflows of US$322mn
  • Drug Regulatory Authority (DRA) will announce an increase in prices of generic pharmaceuticals next week
  • Expected submission of Pakistan’s request for the EU GSP Plus Status to the EU Parliament later this month
  • The fertiliser sector was back in the limelight as resumption of regular gas supply to fertiliser plants meant a return to normal production levels, resulting in huge gains for Engro Fertilizers and Fatima Fertilizers. Fauji Fertilizer Company, which was less affected by the gas outages, also managed to post earnings above expectations, triggering buying in its stock
  • Pakistan State Oil, Bank Alfalah Limited, National Bank of Pakistan, Nishat Chunian Limited, Nishat Chunian Power Limited, Fatima Fertilizer, Maple Leaf Cement, Engro Corporation, Pakistan Petroleum Limited and Fauji Fertilizer Company were among the blue-chips, which announced their above expectation results


Top ten gainers of last week were: Colgate Palmolive, Century Paper, Nestle Pakistan, Siemens Pak Engg., National Foods, Arif Habib Corp, Attock Cement Ltd, Allied Bank, J.D.W.Sugar and Nishat Power Ltd.

Top ten losers of last week were: JS Bank Ltd, Jah.Sidd. Co., Netsol Technologies, Tri‐Pack Films Limited, Shifa International Hospitals, Thal Limited, Azgard Nine, Cherat Cement, Kohinoor Textile and TRG Pakistan Ltd.

Top ten volume leaders were: JSCL, PTC, BOP, ENGRO, NBP, FCCL, DGKC, EFOODS, MLCF, and PSO.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram