Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 26 May, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark movement was bullish and keeps breaking records. KSE – 100 index closed at 21,283.77 points by gaining 746.74 points or 3.64 percent, while KSE-30 index has reached on 16,509.32 by gaining 588.04 or 3.69 percent. With average daily traded volume increasing by 29.4%WoW to a robust 439mn shares. According to analysts, investors interest in the KSE-100 Index next week to be driven by news flow regarding formation of the new cabinet.

So far the benchmark has registered a gain of approximately 26% on year to date basis with an average daily turnover of 219mn shares. The benchmark witnessed an exceptional bull-run from April’13 onwards primarily backed by election euphoria. The pre-election rally witnessed a gain of 10.4% or 1,873 points. It is interesting to note foreign investors invested nearly USD131.4mn in the same pre-election rally. In the post election rally benchmark added nearly 1,368 points or book nearly 6.87% return while foreign participants purchased USD148.5mn worth of stocks.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang’s assurance to support Pakistan in all sectors and hopes that the upcoming new government would resolve the circular debt issue propelled investors to take positions in stocks across-the-board
  • Strong FIPI inflows (US$117mn) were the key sentiment driver for the market this week, as KSE‐100 advanced 3.6%. Reasonable share of the inflow was due to tendering of Unilever Pakistan shares to the parent company by local investors
  • The release of PkR15bn by MoF for the purchase of FO to increase power generation in the country
  • Aid or deferred oil payment from a friendly state may also provide a breathing space to the upcoming government. In such a situation SBP would be in a position to slash the discount rate by 50bps to 100bps, which may boost the equity valuations
  • FBR has proposed 16% standard rate of sales tax on sugar in Budget FY14. FBR has estimated collection of PKR10bn through this major budgetary measure in case the proposal was accepted by the policymakers 
  • Indiana has cancelled subsidies for a planned USD1.8bn fertilizer plant in the state because of concerns that a Pakistani company involved in the project makes products used in improvised explosives
  • SNGPL‐based fertilizer plants will invest USD100mn for the development of the fields, which will ensure better gas supply to fertilizer plants to get better production from local plants instead of spending mns of dollars on costly imported urea
  • PSO efforts to setup a state‐of‐the‐art oil refinery in KPK with a capacity to process 40,000 barrels/ day, will go a long way in meeting the rising energy needs
  • Foreigners’ favourite heavyweights Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), Pakistan State Oil (PSO) and Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL) remained in the limelight while Pakistan Oilfields Ltd, Engro Corp, Fauji Fertilizer Company and cement stocks also followed suit
  • Cement industry has started using alternative fuels to run their plants and share of such fuels in the sector’s energy‐mix has crossed the 20% mark. LPCL was planning to enhance the utilization of alternative fuel to 40% in 1‐year 
  • INDUS is all set to introduce hybrid vehicles in Pakistan during the 9MFY13. The company has already completed extensive test and trial for Prius Hybrid keeping in view the local conditions


Top ten gainers of last week were: Mari Petroleum, Pak Services, Pace (Pak), PICIC Growth, Sui South Gas, TPL Trakker Ltd, Faysal Bank, K.E.S.C., Lafarge Pakistan and P.S.O.

Top ten losers of last week were: Muree Brewery Co, Askari Bank, Colgate Palmolive, NIB Bank, Pak Tobacco Co, JS Bank, Clariant Pakistan, MCB Bank, IGI Insurance, and Jubilee General Insurance.

Top ten volume leaders were: FCCL, LPCL, LOTCHEM, PTC, PACE, KESC, TRG, ENGRO, JSCL, and BOP.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

کرچی اسٹاک مارکیٹ - مئی 19 تجزیہ

کراچی اسٹاک مارکیٹ میں پچھلا ہفتیہ کافی زبردست رہا. K S E 100 انڈکس میں 620 پوائنٹس اضافہ ہوا جو کہ صرف ایک ہفتے میں 3 فی صد سے زیادہ ہے. مارکیٹ میں اضافے کی بنیادی وجہ پاکستان مسلم لیگ (ن) کے حکومت میں آنے کے بعد توانائی اور معاشی صورتحال پر ہنگامی توجہ بتایی جا رہی ہے .

مندرج ذیل نکات مارکیٹ پر زیادہ اثر انداز رہے .

١) پاکستان مسلم لیگ (ن) نے سینیٹر اسحاق ڈار کو فنانس منسٹر بنانے کا فیصلہ کر لیا.

٢) پلاننگ کمیشن نے فرٹیلائزر سیکٹر کو دی جانے والی گیس پر نظر ثانی کی تجویز دی اور کہا کا انرجی سیکٹر کی گیس سپلائی میں اضافہ کیا جاۓ .

٣) پاکستان اسٹیٹ آئل (P S O ) کے سرکلر ڈیبٹ میں کمی کی خبروں نے شیر کی کیمت میں تقریباً 5 1 % اضافہ کیا .

٤) P S O اور A P L نے مشترکہ طور پر بینظیر انٹرنیشنل ائیرپورٹ اسلام آباد میں فیول فارم اور hydrant refueling پلانٹ لگانے کی bid جیت لی .

٥) سیمنٹ سیکٹر میں بہت تیزی دیکھی گئی .

٦) پاک سوزوکی کمپنی (P S M C ) اس سال بہت اچھا نفع دکھاننے کی پوزیشن میں ہے . اس سلسلے میں سب سے زیادہ گاڑی کی کیمت میں کیا جانے والا اضافہ اہم کردار ادا کرے گا جو کے تقریباً 20000 روپے تھا .

امید کی جا رہی ہے کے مارکیٹ اس ہفتے بی اچھا پرفارم کرے گی . اس ہفتے کے بہترین شیئرز میں P S O ، D G K C شامل ہیں . مزید SHEL ، APL ، NBP ، HBL MCB ،ABL ، UBL میں بہتری دیکھی جا سکتی ہے .



Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 19 May, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark movement was bullish. the bull rally was mainly driven by anticipated priority focus on the economy and the energy deficit post PML-N’s landslide election victory. KSE – 100 index closed at 2 0,537.03 points by gaining 620.76 points or 3.12 percent, while KSE-30 index has reached on 15,921.28 by gaining 483.69 or 3.13 percent. Average daily traded volume increasing by a stellar 67.1%WoW to 339mn shares.

PML-N Saturday emerged victorious by clinching 115 NA seats out of 272 general seats with a hope to form the next government in a 342-member parliament. Results till the filing of this report, PPP secured second position with 50 seats while PT bagged 33 seats, independents got 26, JUI-F 13, MQM 1, JI 1, PML-Q 1 and others 18.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • PML-N has officialy selected the Senator Ishaq Dar as the federal finance minister
  • Planning Commission’s recommendation of reconsidering the allocation of gas to fertilizer sector, to ensure gas availability to the power sector
  • MSCI Inc. has deleted Pakistan State Oil (PSO) from MSCI Frontier Markets Index (MSCI FM) and added it to MSCI FM Small Caps Index. The removal of PSO, along with some other adjustments in weights for other stocks, has resulted in lowering of Pakistan stocks’ total weight in MSCI FM from 4.46% to 4.24% now
  • Possibility of resolution of circular debt pushed the oil giant PSO up by around 15.6%W/W
  • The joint venture of PSO and APL has won the bid for establishing a fuel farm and operation and maintenance of hydrant refueling system at the new Benazir Bhutto International Airport, Islamabad, stated a notice sent to the KSE
  • Moody’s eyeing key credit challenges for the new government
  • Forex reserves falling by US$ 262 million to US$ 11.6 billion
  • The market volumes were tilted towards the low cap stocks where FCCL, BOP, KESC, LPCL, TRG and BIPL generated hefty volumes
  • Cement stocks were in a rock & roll mood as majority of the cement stock outpaced the rest of the sectors
  • Right issue along with clean book of BOP backed by political support of PML‐N pushed the stock up by over 20%W/W
  • Anticipation of better business environment which can possibly push the credit offtake, fueled the rally in banking stocks during the outgoing week including ABL(+15.6%), MCB(+11.3%), UBL(+10.6%) and HBL (+7.8%)
  • Mansha Group’s stock performed exceptionally well in a post‐election scenario largely backed by political attachment with the incumbent ruling party
  • PSMC is expecting strong profitability in the later half of 2013 due to PKR20,000/ car increase in prices from January 2013 and incoming effect of weaker Japanese yen


Top ten gainers of last week were: B.O.Punjab, P.S.O., Allied Bank, Nishat Power, JS Bank, Lafarge Pakistan, Bank Of Khyber, Pace (Pak), MCB Bank and Sui North Gas Pipe.

Top ten losers of last week were: Shifa International Hospitals, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Agriautos Industries, Mari Petroleum, Grays Of Cambridge, Clariant Pakistan, Colgate Palmolive, Pak Tobacco Co, IGI Insurance and EFU Life Assur Ltd.

Top ten volume leaders were: FCCL, BOP, JSCL, PTC, KESC, BIPL, DGKC, LPCL, TRG and NBP.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

کراچی اسٹاک مارکیٹ - تجزیہ

کراچی اسٹاک مارکیٹ میں اس ہفتے کا آگاز بہت زبردست رہا .الیکشن میں میاں نواز شریف کی کامیابی نے اسٹاک مارکیٹ کو نئی زندگی دی اورانڈکس22250 کی سطح عبور کر گیا ، جو ایک ریکارڈ ہے . میاں نواز شریف چونکے بزنس کمیونٹی کو ترجیح دیتے ہیں ، اس لئے امید کی جا رہی ہے کے ٹیکسٹائل ، توانائی اور سیمنٹ کےسیکٹر میں مزید بہتری آے گی. اس ہفتے کے آگاز سے ہی مارکیٹ میں  تیزی دیکھی جا رہی ہے اور انڈکس سوموار کو 350 پوائنٹس سے زیادہ اوپر گیا اور یہ تیزی مسلل جاری ہے . 

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 11 May, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark movement was bullish and the pre-election rally continued to drive index forward to an all time high level. Pre election euphoria kept sentiments positive as participants discounted poor law and order situation, enabling the KSE-100 to extend its merry march. KSE – 100 index closed at 19,916.27 points by gaining 689.64 points or 3.6 percent.

Volume activity climbed 28% WoW to 203mn shares while US$ values traded also followed suit to US$75mn (+51% WoW). Similar to last week, FPI inflows (US$42.5mn) included the buy-back of Unilever Pakistan shares. According to analysts, correction is expected in the market anytime, as it performed above its fundamentals, as local retail buyers remained silent in the market.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Telecom sector drew some late attention as Sindh High Court suspended CCP’s verdict against ICH
  • Pakistan discovered a new gas reservoir with a daily production of 33mmcfd in Kirthar Block, Dadu district. The new gas discovery has been made by Eni Pakistan in joint venture with the PPL and KUFPEC
  • Tight gas production in Pakistan is expected to start in July‐August this year from Sajawal Gas field
  • Bilateral currency swap agreement between the State Bank of Pakistan and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) signed in Dec‐11 was officially implemented after issuance of necessary instructions to banks and completion of formalities during this week 
  • ADB (Asian Development Bank) and the Government of Pakistan signed an agreement for investing US$99mn in improving water supply and sanitation facilities in eight smaller cities of Sindh 
  • FBR is actively working on a budget proposal to change the highest tax brackets for salaried taxpayers in the upcoming budget FY14. FBR is analyzing a proposal to adjust top existing tax slabs of salaried class
  • Government of Pakistan has dedicated 150 mmcfd additional gas to power sector, and released PKR10bn to PSO for purchase of FO, it is learnt.
  • GoP has decided to increase electricity Tariff MDT by PKR5/unit for some categories of consumers soon after the GE’13. However, the government is charging PKR8.80/unit from consumers. The regulator raised tariff for IESCO by PKR4.80/unit because of the increase in electricity generation cost and hike in expenditures of the company in the ongoing FY 
  • Country’s oil sales surged by 11% to 1.7mn tons in April, mainly due to 34% jump in the sales of diesel and 17% increase in petrol sales, while FO sales declined by 5% during the month
  • Foreign fund buying was witnessed in energy and other blue-chip stocks, as they diverted their investment from Unilever Pakistan after its buyback from the stock exchanges in the country
  • Fauji Fertilizer, Fauji Cement, MCB Bank Limited, Pakistan State Oil, Oil and Gas Development Company Limited and Pakistan Petroleum Limited remained in the limelight after healthy result announcements
  • India’s renewed interest to join Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline


Top ten gainers of last week were: Muree Brewery Co, Mari Petroleum, Pakistan Cables, MCB Bank, Fauji Cement Company, Stand.Chart.Bank, Agriautos Industries, B.O.Punjab, Grays Of Combridge and Bank Of Khyber.

Top ten losers of last week were: Bata (Pak) Ltd., Javedan Corporation, Rafhan Maize Prod, TRG Pakistan Ltd, Kohinoor Energy, Askari Bank, Pak.Int.Con, Clariant Pakistan, Feroz 1888 Mills and Pak Suzuki Motor.

Top ten volume leaders were: FCCL, TRG, JSCL, LOTCHEM, ENGRO, PTC, NBP, DGKC, DAWH and BIPL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 5 May, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark movement was bullish and the pre‐election rally continued to drive index forward. Strong corporate earnings, IMF’s offer for $5 billion facility to Pakistan and Early resolution of CCP’s levy on fertilizer, telecom sectors saw the benchmark KSE-100 index smash past the 19,000-point barrier to close at 19,226 points during the week ended May 3. The Karachi stock market witnessed a healthy trading month in April 2013 against March 2013 as a gain of 780 points took place during the period. KSE – 100 index closed at 19,226.63 points by gaining 309 points or 1.6 percent. While KSE – 30 index closed at 14,797.72 by increment of 213.54 points or 1.46%.

Average trading volumes dropped 15.9% to 159 million shares per day and average daily value also fell 15.5% to Rs4.90 billion. The market capitalisation of the KSE rose 2.2% to Rs4.75 trillion by the end of the week. According to analysts, correction is expected and might witness selling in the midst of post-result period, in next week. With general elections just a week away, law & order situation in the country can be a trigger for index volatility. We believe successful elections to send a positive signal to the investors, leading to higher volumes, going forward.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) offer for $5 billion facility to Pakistan for balance of payment support and debt repayment
  • The law and order situation in the country deteriorated during the week as attacks on political parties continued ahead of general elections on May 11
  • Strong corporate earnings and surprisingly low inflation numbers helped to improve investor sentiment
  • Lucky Cement, the largest cement manufacturer in the country, announced a 49% growth in year-on-year income for nine months of fiscal year 2013. The company reported earnings per share of Rs21.59, which were above market expectations
  • MCB Bank, one of the largest banks in the country, announced EPS of Rs5.70 for the first quarter of 2013 and paid out a dividend of Rs3.50 per share for the period
  • The recovery of the fertiliser sector came into the limelight with Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim reporting EPS of Rs0.53 for the first quarter of 2013, after posting a loss in the same period last year. According to the National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC), sales of DAP (the company’s main product) grew 83% in the first quarter of 2013
  • Fauji Fertilizer, MCB, Lucky and PPL remained in limelight after healthy result announcements, while National Bank Pakistan and Engro Corp saw selling pressure during the week
  • PPL giving up on its plan to acquire assets of Tullow Oil
  • The stock market was also aided by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. CPI for April stood at 5.8%, allaying investor fears that the discount rate will be increased in the future due to rising inflation
  • There was bad news for the telecom sector as the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) gave a detailed ruling on the International Clearing House (ICH), in which it scrapped the controversial setup and imposed heavy penalties on the Long Distance International (LDI) operators in the country
  • Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited, Worldcall Telecom and Telecard Limited will have to pay penalty of Rs8.3 billion, Rs534 million and Rs189 million as per the ruling. All telecom stocks took a severe beating during the week
  • Analysts said foreign fund buying was witnessed in energy and other blue-chip stocks, as they diverted their investment from Unilever Pakistan after its buyback from the stock exchanges in the country
  • Renewed buying interest in Pakistan State Oil, MCB and Pakistan Petroleum Limited was also seen
  • FG has appointed Tahir Mahmood as acting chairman of SECP
  • FG will pay approximately PKR14,500 per ton subsidy on imported urea to match the domestic price, as it has already decided to supply urea at lower price to facilitate farmers
  • The overall sales volume of medicines in the country swelled to PKR192.9bn in’12 from PKR123bn in 2009, with the pharmaceutical industry growing at a cumulative annual growth rate of 16.12% during


Top ten gainers of last week were: Pak Tobacco Co, Pak.Int.Con, Rafhan Maize Prod, TPL Trakker Ltd, Hum Network, Soneri Bank, Clariant Pakistan, Netsol Technologie, Pak Suzuki Motor and National Foods.

Top ten losers of last week were: TRG Pakistan Ltd, Jah.Sidd. Co., National Bank Of Pakistan, Muree Brewery Co, Pakistan Telecommunication, B.O.Punjab, Bankislami Pakistan, K.E.S.C., Engro Corporation and Pakistan Cables.

Top ten volume leaders were: FCCL, TRG, PTC, LOTCHEM, ENGRO, SNBL, BOP, DAWH, JSCL and NBP.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram