Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 30 March, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark movement was bullish and led by buying in blue chips on support of easing political outlook and renewed foreign interest. KSE – 100 index closed at 18,043.31 points by gaining 80.19 points or 0.45 percent, while KSE – 30 index closed at 14,208.38 points by losing -49.34 points or -0.35 percent. Better expectations for March quarter also helped the index to recover its early week’s loss. Volumes also witnessed a similar trend, with average daily volumes increasing by 7.1%WoW to clock in at 186 million shares.

The market turnover went up by 103.29 percent and traded 204.39 million shares as against 100.54 million shares of the previous session. The overall market capitalization rose 0.93 percent and traded Rs 4.446 trillion as against Rs 4.405 trillion. Gainers outnumbered losers 203 to 103, while 23 stocks were unchanged.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Mir Hazar Khan Khoso, a former Chief Justice of Balochistan, was elected as the caretaker Prime Minister of Pakistan
  • Pakistan Telecom PTC +2% churning over 10mn shares while Wateen Telecom WTCL +9.4% traded near 29mn shares after company announced that its major share holder will buy back WTCL at PKR4.5/sh
  • Hubco announcing COD of 84MW Laraib Project
  • DGKC planning to take exposure in Mozambique by investing US$8.6mn in Sumaria Cement Holdings
  • Weighted average banking spreads registered at 6.18% in Feb’13, down 112bps YoY (further 3bp)
  • Supreme Court ordered CCP to complete the proceedings in the International Clearing House case within 30 days starting Apr 1, 2013
  • Fertilizer stocks came out of hibernation with Fauji Fertilizer FFC +.9% and Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA PA +4.9% as investors bet on higher March offtake. There is 162 percent rise in urea sales data for February 2013
  • Better foreign flows post Easter holidays will likely bring index names back in limelight
  • Renewed buying interest in heavyweight Oil and Gas Development Company and FFC also helped the index to gain 95 points
  • Cement stocks on low volumes kept the momentum upbeat that found support of cautious flows in singled out exploration and production and fertilizer stocks
  • Formation of new cabinet however can be looked as an interim trigger while quarter-end results to kick start from second week of April are likely to determine the future trend of the market
  • Petition filed in the Supreme Court against the appointment of CCP Chairperson Rahat Kunain and three other officials
  • Pakistan successfully paid its 11th installment (worth US$143.7mn) to the IMF without any major alarms (PKR depreciating by only 0.2%WoW)
  • Rumors related to cement cartel turned the cement stock volatile, but soon after investors realize the facts which pushed the stocks back on track
  • Govt borrowed PRs 943 billion up to Mar 15th; Sukuk auction drew PRs 43 billion


Top Gainers last week were: Nestle Pakistan, Shell Pakistan, UniLever Pakistan, Javedan Corporation, Stand.Chart.Bank, Dawood Hercules Corp, TRG Pakistan Ltd, National Refinery, Colgate Palmolive, and Muree Brewery Co.

Top Loers last week were: EFU Life Assur Ltd., Jah.Sidd. Co., EFU General Insurance, Pak.Int.Con, Bank Of Khyber, JS Growth Fund, K.E.S.C., J.D.W.Sugar, JS Bank, and United Bank.

Top ten volume leaders were: TRG, LOTPTA, FCCL, PTC, ENGRO, DGKC, JSCL, LPCL, NCPL and AICL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 23 March, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark movement was bullish and Swiftly recouping early week losses. As the general election date was announced, leading to the market gaining on a weekly basis.. KSE – 100 index closed at 1 7,963.12 points by gaining 298.29 points or 1.69 percent, while KSE – 30 index closed at 14,257.72 points by losing 85.55 points or 0.60 percent. Better expectations for March quarter also helped the index to recover its early week’s loss. Volumes also witnessed a similar trend, with average daily volumes increasing by 7.1%WoW to clock in at 186 million shares.

According to analysts, investors have to remain cautious in the near term given political ambiguity ahead of announcement of the caretaker government setup. Robust estimated cement dispatches numbers and anticipated clarity on the International Clearing House (ICH) should also drive investor sentiment next week. On the macroeconomic front, falling foreign exchange reserve levels amid a worsening BoP may continue to exert pressure on the PkR.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Election comission has decided Caretaker Prime Minister Justice (retd) Mir Hazar Khan Khoso
  • Leading political parties were unable to decide the interim prime minister while on the other hand election commission has finalized the date for the general elections
  • Over the weekend the political warfare is likely to increase with PTI gathering scheduled on March 23, 2013 whereas Ex‐President Mr. Pervaiz Musharraf is also scheduled to arrive on March 24, 2013
  • The positive movement of market was driven primarily by selective textile, fertilizer and cement stocks amid a recovery in the banking sector
  • Robust FPI inflow at US$9.3mn further assisted sentiments
  • FBR reportedly provisionally collected PRs1,199bn during Jul ‐ Mar 14th 2012‐13, reflecting an increase of 5.1% YoY
  • The KSE-100 Index shed a sizable 172 points on Monday as the banking sector plunged on SBP’s decision for banks to pay interest on savings deposits on average monthly balances
  • Fatima Fertilizer loses upto -7% WOW on future payout concerns
  • Cotton production fell 12% YOY
  • Almost all banks are losing because of reduced profitability expectations due to a likely uptick in effective interest rate (minimum profit rate of 6% per annum) on saving deposits. Banking spread is likely to shrink further backed by the recent SBP decision; hence the interest toward banking stocks seems limited
  • Latest data revealed that foreign exchange reserves dropped by US$129mn to US$12.4bn in the week ended March 15th
  • The fertilizer sector is expected to continue to be in the limelight as news flow regarding gas cost to ENGRO come through
  • OGDCL has added 35mn (mmcfd) gas per day into the system from Qadirpur Gas Field
  • Byco’s newly‐completed 120k bpd oil refinery, largest in the country, successfully completed its 72‐hour continuous performance test run at 60% of its capacity over the weekend
  • The Mansha Group stocks from cement, textile and banking sectors that kept the sentiments and gains intact, were soon followed by various main board stocks, triggering an across-the-board short covering during the week
  • Foreigners also actively participated in the market and were net buyers of $9.3 million worth of equity, up $4 million on the previous week


Top Gainers last week were: Nishat Chunian, Nishat Mills, Pak Services, TRG Pakistan Ltd, D. G. Khan Cement, Attock Cement, Hum Network, Engro Corporation, K.E.S.C., and Pace (Pak).

Top Loers last week were: Bank Al‐Falah, National Bank Of Pakistan, Clariant Pakistan, IGI Insurance, Bankislami Pakistan, Stand.Chart.Bank, Colgate Palmolive, Fatima Fert.Co., Grays Of Combridge, and United Bank.

Top ten volume leaders were: TRG, LPCL, FCCL, ENGRO, PTC, DGKC, LOTPTA, NCPL, BAFL, and JSCL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 15 March, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark movement was bearish. Political and geo-political uncertainty was rife at the local bourse this week. KSE – 100 index closed at 17,665 points by losing 299.35 points or -1.67 percent, while KSE – 30 index closed at 14,172.17 points by losing -418.57 points. Market is likely to remain volatile in the upcoming days, while clarity over interim government may improve the investment climate.

Volumes shrank by 26 percent week on week to 174 million shares against 236 million shares last week. Security unrest in the city after Karachi blast, dismal cement sales for February 2013 and economic uncertainty impacted the sentiments despite easing gas shortfall issues in fertilizer sector and ECC approval for raise in refineries deemed duty to 9.0 percent. According to analysts, next week will remain crucial on caretaker setup announcement and the peaceful power transition.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • The week opened on concerns that the Pak-Iran gas pipeline may result in US sanctions (resulting in a sharp one-day drop of -2.5%)
  • Iran and Pakistan formally inaugurated the construction of the Pak-Iran gas pipeline project
  • The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) has rejected the plan to provide gas to Engro Corporation’s new fertiliser plant at concessionary rates. Fertilizers lost ground on uncertainty regarding the pricing of gas supply to Engro and resultantly the future of domestic urea prices
  • National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) on Thursday approved increase in tariff by Rs 1.55 per unit under monthly fuel adjustment formula
  • The Pakistan Credit Rating Agency (Pacra) has upgraded the MCB Bank’s long‐term credit rating from AA+ to AAA, which defines the highest credit quality with lowest expectation of credit risk
  • The domestic gold prices have been falling after hitting a record on Feb 7, 2013, however market people and analysts said that people continued to buy yellow metal bars from the market considering it a worthy investment
  • Dissolution of assemblies is coming up with still no clarity on the shape of the upcoming interim government
  • A cloud of uncertainty hovered over the Telecom space, given the fate of ICH remains undecided
  • The auto sector posted unexciting Feb 2013 industry sales volumes (down 16%YoY and 1%MoM)
  • ICH news kept the investor away from PTC, while the impact on earnings seems negligible
  • FBR amended procedure for the legalization of non‐duty paid smuggled vehicles under the amnesty scheme
  • Aligned with its aggressive exploration programmed to optimize production and reserves replenishment of hydrocarbons, PPL won provisional grant of 11 strategically‐fit exploration blocks offered in the latest bidding round held on March 10. OGDCL and PPL are to start exploration and production activities in Sudan


Top gainers of last week were: Allied Rental Mod, Colgate Palmolive, TRG Pakistan Ltd, Meezan Bank, International Industries, EFU Life Assur Ltd., IGI Insurance, Lotte Pakistan, Attock Cement and United Bank.

Top losers of last week were: Sui South Gas, Habib Metro Bank, JS Growth Fund, Pace (Pak), Dawood Hercules Corp, Bank AL‐Habib, Indus Motor, Mari Petroleum, Pak Suzuki Motor and Azgard Nine

Top ten volume leaders were: ENGRO, PTC, JSCL, LOTPTA, FCCL, LPCL, NCPL, NIB, DGKC and TRG.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 10 March, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark movement was bearish (After seven weeks of bull-run) because of lack of triggers. KSE – 100 index closed at 17,964.18 points by losing 221.01 points or -1.22 percent, while KSE – 30 index closed at 14,590.74 points by losing -275.11 points or -1.85 percent. The weekly turnover went up by 40.91 percent and traded 235.84 million shares as against previous week’s 399.15 million shares. Investors were kept on their toes throughout the week as an uncertain law and order situation coupled with sector specific regularity issues dictated sentiment at the KSE.

According to experts, as the result season almost over, trading activity might slowdown in the near term. However, developments in Telecom (CCP ICH hearing) and Fertilizers (imposition of GIDC and approval of concessionary gas rates for ENGRO) should drive sector specific Interest. Until and unless the core political parties will announce the interim government and election date, market behaviour is likely to remain lackluster. Analysts said some activity was also witnessed in cement companies in anticipation of cement price increase.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Fall in heavyweights OGDC and MCB share prices pushed the index below 18,000 points mark
  • Reduced termination call rate from US forced investors to trim their positions in the telecom sector
  • The unrest in Karachi has kept investors in a dubious mood after attack in Abbas town which killed over 50 persons and destroyed residential properties
  • Expected increase in PTA import duty, driving sentiment and activity in the Chemicals sector, particularly LOTPTA
  • Positive news for refineries is the expectation of an increase in deemed duty on High Speed Diesel (HSD) from 7.5% to 9% 
  • Federal Communications Commission of USA ordering US Telcos to suspend payments to Pakistani LDI operators in excess of US$0.02/min
  • The government approved the Tax Laws Amendment Bill 2012 to launch the amnesty scheme to non-tax payers
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB) stated that Pakistan would need a US$6bn-US$9bn IMF bailout package before the end of the year in the face of an impending BoP crisis
  • Completion of calendar year result season along with quarterly season has already crossed the finish line
  • Investors seem perplexed whether elections would take place or not despite surety provided by Army chief and top tier politicians. Investors are also anxiously waiting for the names of interim Prime Minister which may provide a long lasting clarity
  • Stock specific news has kept fertilizer stocks including DAWH and ENGRO in the limelight
  • PTC lost considerably value after international operators challenged the new hike in tariff to USD0.08 cents
  • Government of Pakistan is learnt to have directed Nespak to begin the construction of the Iran‐Pakistan gas pipeline from Mar’11 this year
  • In order to recover tax money, the FBR has approached banks to directly deduct income tax from the account of taxpayers/defaulters
  • Pakistan’s inflation numbers gauged by CPI stood at 7.38% as against 8.03% in January. On monthly basis, the inflation declined by 0.3% as against increase of 1.7% last month, while the average inflation in the eight months of 2012‐13 stood at 8.16% versus 10.80% in the same period last year 
  • Rice exports hit US$ 1 billion mark in 7MFY13
  • With huge gas losses and increasing gas shortages, the government is embarking on a major reform programmed envisaging unbundling of the two gas utilities SNGPL and SSGC into one countrywide transmission company and a number of regional distribution companies and introduces a new tariff regime for gas consumers 
  • 3‐Companies in the fold of the Fauji Group —FF; FFC and FFBL announced that they would purchase 21.3% shares in AKBL from the public at an offer price of PKR24.32/ share. The public shareholding acquisition would be for 173.5mn shares which would amount to 21.3% of the total issued share capital of AKBL 
  • Forex reserves dipping by US$ 380 million to US$ 12.81 billion
  • T-bill cut-off yields inching up by 2-9bp
  • Cement sales surged by 5%YoY in Feb-2013, while ATRL and LOTPTA outperformed the market by 14.2% and 4.9% respectively in anticipation of positive regulatory changes
  • PTC underperformed the market by 9.8%WoW on news of US based Federal Communication Commission’s order prohibiting U.S telecom companies from paying above the Pre ICH rate (US$0.02/min) for calls to Pakistan 
  • Engro was a star performer at the close of the week as rumors abounded that the company could be getting LT gas at a much lower rate (US$1.05- 1.70/mmbtu) than earlier expected rate of US$5/mmbtu 
  • Fatima group (Fatima Fertilizer & Pak Arab Fertilizer) has successfully formulated non‐explosive fertilizers which will be tested in Jun‐Jul 2013 and marketed in the next Rabi season ie starting Oct‐2013. US military officials are now expected to test this fertilizer in their next meeting in Pakistan 


Dawood Hercules, Attock Refinery, Nishat Chun Power, Kohinoor Energy, Colgate Palmolive, Soneri Bank, Hum Network, Standard Chartered Bank, Nishat Power, Lafarge Pakistan, and Indus Motors were the major gainers while Jahangir Siddiqui & Co, JS Bank Limited, Azgard Nine, SNGP,  P.T.C.L., Bankislami Pakistan, Shell Pakistan, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Faysal Bank, and Bank of Punjab were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top ten volume leaders were: LOTPTA, PTC, FCCL, LPCL, ENGRO, JSCL, NCPL, DGKC, ANL, and PACE.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 3 March, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark movement was bullish and reached to new historical levels, on the back of continued robust corporate results for the quarter ended December 2012 and steady foreign portfolio investment inflow. KSE – 100 index closed at 18,185.19 points by gaining 110.92 points or 0.61 percent, while KSE – 30 index closed at 14,865.85 points by gaining 51.78 points or 0.35 percent, amidst higher average daily volumes, which recorded an increase of 5.08%WoW to stand at 324.43mn shares. The weekly turnover went up by 8.15 percent and traded 399.15 million shares compared to previous weeks 369.04 million shares.

Major activity was witnessed in Engro as it gained 8 percent during the week amid positive development on gas supply. National bank and Hub Power Company followed suit after announcing handsome payouts for their December results. While telecom sector witnessed heavy volumes amid uncertainty regarding future of higher LDI business. Further lower than expected CPI announcement also helped index. Going forward, announcement on caretaker setup will lead the sentiments. Caretaker setup will have an impact on the market and it is likely that the market will not sustain the current trend because it is under pressure. If elections are delayed, the market will go down, therefore, the next 15 days are crucial for the market.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • CPI for February 2013, which clocked in at 7.4%YoY (lower than expected), which has also helped the index gain
  • Telecommunication sector remained the highlight of the week as the court issued decision in the international call rate case 
  • ECC’s decision regarding allocation of gas to SNGP-based fertilizer manufacturers and approval of increase in OMC margins, have created a positive impact
  • The news of gas supply to ENGRO and DAWH continued to fuel the stock as both the stocks presented over 13% return to the investors
  • SBP made a sizable payment of US$391.8mn to the IMF and the GoP awarded the contract for Pakistan’s portion of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline
  • This week witnessed result-based activity in the market (average market volumes up by 5.08%WoW amid financial results of NBP, HUBC, TELE and ANL, among others), we note that most corporate results have already been announced
  • Investor attention is likely to turn to upcoming general elections (5yr tenure of the GoP comes to an end in mid-Mar’13) within the backdrop of external account concerns and a potential reentry in a fresh IMF program 
  • During the week exceptional flow was witnessed at the benchmark where USD10.46mn inflow was register. The foreign buying euphoria encourages investors to remain bullish in the market
  • Feb 2013 was Yet another amazing month for investors with 5.4% return recorded in this month with average daily volume of 286mn shares
  • FBR Chairman stated that the FBR will shortly issue a SRO to impose  % sales tax at each stage of the textile sector bringing this powerful sector into taxation regime
  • Ghee, cooking oil prices up, Pakistan’s food import bill plunged by 14.4% in 7MF13 to USD2.6bn from USD3.045bn in the same period last fiscal year
  • GoP has decided to increase the OMCs margin by 10 paisa (5.7%)/liter on High Speed Diesel against the demand of PKR1.22/liter as interim relief
  • Car production increased by 62% in Jan’13 to 11,409 units as compared to 6,702 units a month in Dec’12, the data of the PAMA revealed
  • Local petroleum product prices were hiked by 3-4%
  • Fertilizer offtake figures for January showed a decline of 8%YoY
  • Hub Power announced plans to hive off its Narowal plant
  • ECC of the Cabinet approved an interim 'business plan' for PIA and directed to issue fresh continuing guarantees to the tune of PKR49bn during the ongoing year to meet the critical liquidity condition of the corporation 
  • MoF has released PKR15bn to PSO, enabling it to continue importing FO by clearing L/Cs payments to international fuel suppliers
  • India is likely to cancel Pakistani cotton import orders after the commodity’s price surged significantly from the rate at which the two countries have agreed upon
  • State Bank of Pakistan released data on banking spreads (difference between weighted average lending and deposit rates) for January 2013 where spreads depicted their largest MoM drop since June‐08 (down 33bp to 6.21%)
  • Buying interest seen in Hub Power on better corporate results and cash dividend announcement while expectations of additional gas supply from March grabbed investor interest in Engro 


Dawood Hercules, Engro Corporation, National Refinery, Lafarge Pakistan Cement Ltd, Azgard Nine, Pakistan Cables, Fauji Cement Company, Engro Foods, Rafhan Maize Prod., Netsol Technologies were the major gainers while TRG Pakistan, NIB Bank, Soneri Bank, Grays Of Cambridge, Kohinoor Energy, Clariant Pak, Pace (Pak) Ltd., Nishat Chnian Power, IGI Insurance, and Jahangir Siddiqui Co. were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top ten volume leaders were: FCCL, PTC, ANL, JSCL, ENGRO, NBP, LPCL, TRG, DGKC, and EFOODS.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram