Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 23 February, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark movement was bullish and crossed the psychological  level of 18,000 points with average daily volume of 309mn shares. Volumes are largely tilted towards low cap high net worth stocks. Stock specific news from time to time hit the market, which continues to boost investor confidence and sentiment. KSE – 100 index closed at 18,074.27 points by gaining 277.05 points or 1.66 percent, while KSE – 30 index closed at 14,814.07 points by gaining 251.28 points or 1.73 percent, despite the prevailing political and law & order situation in the country.

Strong textile sector exports data, record earnings announcements, current account surplus for July to January 2013, expected hike in Karachi Electric Supply Company power tariff easing circular debt concerns in energy sector and hopes for OGDC gas sales agreement with fertilizer companies affected the sentiments of the investors during the outgoing week.

According to analysts, the current Bull Run is based on pre result season or in anticipation of general elections, and it will continue in next week also. If election schedule is announced next week, it will further boost the market. Majority of the investors are foreseeing better time ahead of elections which justify the current buying euphoria. They believe bull is likely to remain active in the upcoming days but prudency suggests investors need to remain cautious and keep valuable stocks in their baskets. Modalities are likely to be settled soon as investors in anticipation of greater production and sales volume pushed the stock upwards.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • The market was concerned about the split of Pakistan Peoples Party and Muttahida Quami Movement, and the resignation of Dr. Hafeez Sheikh from the post of Finance Minister
  • Cement sector continued to remain in the limelight as investors brought shares on hopes of strong corporate results for the quarter ending in December
  • Results announcement from National Bank of Pakistan and United Bank Limited will also play a pivotal role in market movement
  • Corporate announcements of various stocks hit the stock market with PSO leading with exceptional payout, FCCL results were in line with market estimates and OGDC was unable to beat analyst expectations. NML can be considered as a surprise package where investors continue to accumulate stock at current level. With the onset of the upcoming week, banking stocks including NBP and UBL is expected to announce its results which are likely to keep investors interested. We are expecting better earnings from UBL while lower earnings & greater payout from NBP.
  • The KSE witnessed a decent week as trading volumes also improved by 14.2% to 309 million shares and foreigners remained net buyers of US$11.6mn this week
  • Gas Sale Agreement (GSA) on the Kunnar Pasaki Deep (KPD) field between fertilizer companies and Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC)
  • Ministry recommending a hike in Oil Marketing Companies’ (OMCs) margins
  • The news related to international clearing house for LDI where SC decided the case in favor of telecom companies. As a consequence PTC followed by rest of the telecom players remained in limelight
  • Engro continues to grow backed by agreement with OGDC for supply of 79mmcfd gas to Engro
  • All the political parties are looking ahead towards the general elections which are likely to be announced shortly
  • Chief of Abu Dhabi Group of the UAE and Pakistan’s Malik Riaz has joined hands in a bid to construct the world’s tallest building in Karachi. The parties signed a deal in Abu Dhabi, which envisages a staggering investment of usd45bn in Pakistan’s real estate 
  • OGDCL starts production from Sinjhoro. OGDCL has also started first ever negotiations with the fertilizer sector in order to reach an agreement for direct gas sales to them. Earlier the gas sale agreement of fertilizer companies were with the distribution companies i.e SSGCL) and SNGPL 
  • SSGC to get 100mmcfd additional supply of gas. Through new gas fields, supply of 50 to 60mmcfd is expected by early next year. While another 50mmcfd LPG‐air mix gas through LPG plant under completion at port Qasim will further beef up the supplies
  • PIA to induct 5 aircraft in March‐April
  • SBP has granted approval to HBL for the acquisition of Citibank's (Pakistan operations) consumer business portfolio
  • Pakistan’s exports of textile and clothing witnessed more than 8% growth during 7MFY13 over the same months last year
  • KESC to invest US$ 500 million in power sector in Karachi
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB) planned a firm lending program totaling US$2.47bn focusing on energy sector, rehabilitation of aging irrigation infrastructure, poor water management and urban services. This lending would be part of the country partnership strategy, spread over a period of two years 
  • In latest T‐bill auction, cut‐off yields climbed up 18/20/14bp to 9.27%/9.36%/9.39% for 3M/6M/12M, in line with the increase in secondary market yields. Majority (91%) of the participation was skewed towards 3‐month T‐bill, which suggested market expectations of near‐term interest rate hike 
  • Foreign exchange reserves fell by US$337mn to US$13.058bn during the week ended Feb 15th partly due to the re‐payment of US$145.5mn to the IMF which was due on Feb 11th 


Murree Brewery, Engro Corporation, Packages Limited, Dawood Hercules, Nishat Chun Power, P.T.C.L.A, DGK Cement, MCB, Nishat Mills Ltd., and Nishat Chunian were the major gainers while Millat Tractors, Sui Southern Gas, National Foods, Pakistan Tobacco Company, Agriauto Ind Sui Northern Gas Ltd, NIB Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Pak.Int.Con and TPL Tracker were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top ten volume leaders were: PTC, JSCL, FCCL, PACE, NIB, ENGRO, DGKC, TRG, SNGP and NBP

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 16 February, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark movement was bullish and continued its push towards 18,000 points this week, driven mainly by incoming results. Sentiments in the market were mixed, driven by results, while intraday volatility remained high. KSE – 100 index closed at 17,797.22 points by gaining 319.28 points or 1.83 percent, while KSE – 30 index has reached on 14,562.79 by gaining of 311.64 points or 2.19 percent.

Volumes improved compared to the previous week as the average daily volumes clocked in at 270mn shares, an increase of 3.15%WoW, with volumes once again led by the Telecom sector. Investor focus was skewed towards the Telecom (+9%WoW), Auto (+6.1%WoW) and Oil & Gas (+4.7%WoW) sectors. Because of anticipation of robust Dec-12 results from telecom giant PTC, on which the company delivered, sharp 52%MoM recovery in domestic auto sales in Jan 2013 and rumors of an increase in marketing margins for OMCs as well as higher international oil prices.

According to analysts, foreign interest and result announcements are likely to continue supporting the bull-run. Results from telecom, banking, and exploration and production sectors are still pouring in. However, he said, when elections will come closer the market may take breathing space. Any news on political front can upset sentiments of investors. Oil companies saw interest levels picking up owing to proposed hike in marketing margins on certain products.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • A slew of positive earnings announcements as Oct-Dec 2012 result season unfolded where DGKC, HBL, KESC, SNGP, PTC and ABL announced their results. And continued foreign interest at the local bourse, have moved KSE index into positive direction 
  • The hearing and subsequent dismissal of the petition by Dr. Tahir-Ul-Qadri by the SC challenging the composition of the ECP
  • The Swiss government declined to re-open cases against President Zardari
  • Negotiations between the Government, OGRA, OMCs and petroleum dealers regarding increase in margins of OMCs and dealers
  • BoP concerns with the IMF repayment of US$145mn at the start of the week causing PkR/US$ parity to weaken further
  • Foreign buyers bought $10.8 million of stocks last week
  • Concerns on Pak Rupee exchange rate (Pakistan made a US$146mn repayment to the IMF this week) and high DPS (Rs2.0) announcement by its subsidiary Nishat Chunian Power Ltd, put Nishat Chunian Ltd in a sweet spot
  • SBP over the weekend decided to keep the discount rate unchanged
  • SBP overnight reporate has been increased from 6.50% to 7.00%pa. This will serve as the 'floor' for the interest rate corridor. Floor and ceiling levels for the interest rate corridor will be 7.00% and 9.50% p.a. respectively, with a difference of 250bps as compared to 300bps previously 
  • Fauji Foundation along with Fauji Fertilizer (FFC) and Fauji Bin Qasim (FFBL) formed a consortium to acquire 51% strategic stake of Askari Bank from AWT at a price of PRs24.32/sh
  • OGDCL has converted third party workers on daily wages
  • Urea consignment of some 27,500tons, imported by TCP from SABIC under the credit facility, has reached Gwadar Port
  • PSO is likely to get PKR10bn from GoP to avert crisis of oil supplies operations on temporary basis. GoP instructed SBP to disburse an amount to PSO however the amount did not transfer to the accounts
  • Heavy buying was seen in OGDC that closed above Rs200 levels for the first time
  • Extraordinary corporate results of PTCL on realization of international call revenue invited interest in the scrip and other telecom sector stocks
  • Engro Corp and DGKC result remained below expectations


National Foods, NetSol Technologies, Nishat (Chunian) Limited, Pak Services, Nishat Power Ltd., IGI Insurance, Packages Limited, Nishat Chunian Power, Indus Motors and P.T.C.L.A were the major gainers while K.E.S.C., Sui Southern Gas, Bankislami Pakistan, Azgard Nine, ICI Pakistan, EFU General Insurance, Allied Bank, JS Bank, TPL Tracker and Bank Al-Habib were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top ten volume leaders were: PTC, FCCL, JSCL, SNGP, NIB, TRG, LOTPTA, DGKC, PACE and ENGRO.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 10 February, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark witnessed yet another bullish week to march towards new historic levels led by telecom, exploration and production and food sector. While State Bank of Pakistan kept discount rate at 9.50 percent, in line with market expectations. Trading picked up this week, driven by better results and payouts, with average daily volumes clocking in at 262mn shares (+21%WoW). KSE – 100 index closed at 17,477.94 points by gaining 211.71 points or 1.23 percent, while KSE – 30 index has reached on 14,251.15 by gaining of 144.49 points or 1.02 percent. The weekly turnover rose 89.18 percent and traded 269.36 million shares as compared to previous week’s 142.38 million shares.

According to analysts, The market will continue to be driven by results next week. In this regard, major results next week include DGKC, HBL, PTC and ABL. The telecom sector is expected to remain under the limelight next week. With the result season in full swing, political noise will likely remain in the background although BoP concerns could also come into play as Pakistan is due to repay US$530mn to IMF this month. Some telecom-related shares like TeleCard and WorldCall were in the limelight, while Pakistan Telecommunication Company Ltd with decent volume saw profit-taking after rallying for a couple of sessions.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) also released the Monetary policy Statement (MPS), maintaining the discount rate at 9.5%, while the interest rate corridor was reduced by 50bps to 250 bps
  • SBP has also decided to grant a microfinance license to U Microfinance Bank Ltd. (owned by PTC)
  • Key results this week included PPL, MCB and EPCL
  • Next week is laden result announcement of blue chip stocks including HBL, ABL, DGKC, ENGRO, PTC and NCPL
  • Off-take figures for cement with Jan’13 sales rising by 10%YoY
  • Moody’s has stated on Pakistan, that it has maintained the country’s rating at Caa1 while have highlighted event risk (politics and BoP concerns) as the key risk going forward
  • The Federal Board of Revenue has sent a summary of new taxation measures to the Ministry of Finance for approval which aims to raise revenue from Rs50 billion to Rs60 billion in the next few months
  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves declined by $75 million to $13.474 billion during the week ended February 1, according to the central bank on Thursday
  • Retail participation in telecom and cement plays also boosted investor participation as daily volumes averaged 292mn shares (35%) during the week
  • FBR has missed revenue collection targets of sales tax, federal excise duty and direct taxes during 2011‐12, as achievement of assigned targets remained 95 percent (sales tax), 87.1% (FED) and 98.2% (direct taxes)
  • OGRA has increased gas tariff for the consumers of SSGC by PKR9.66/mmbtu, while it reduced gas tariff by PKR7.91/mmbtu for consumers of SNGPL
  • Gas supply to textile mills in Punjab resumed on for two days in the region of Lahore I & II, followed by supply to the mills in Faisalabad and Multan region on coming Monday and Tuesday
  • Askari Bank remained in the limelight after Fauji Group announced that they would take over the bank at a substantial premium to the market price


TRG Pakistan Ltd, Pace (Pak) Ltd., Engro Foods Ltd, Jah.Sidd. Co., Stand.Chart.Bank, Sui North Gas Pipe., P.T.C.L.A, JS Bank Ltd, Azgard Nine and Bata (Pak) Ltd. were the major gainers while Pak Tobacco Co., Pakistan Cables, Pak.Int.Con, ICI Pakistan, Nestle Pakistan, International Steels Ltd, Netsol Technologies, Grays Of Combridge, Fauji Cement Company and Millat Tractors were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top ten volume leaders were: TRG, PTC, JSCL, LOTPTA, PACE, FCCL, KESC, AKBL, ENGRO, and SNGP.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Board Meetings Feb, 2013

PPL(Pakistan Petroleum)            Mon, Feb 04 2013
AABS(Al-Abbas Sugar)            Wed, Feb 06 2013
MSCL(Metropolitan Steel Corporation)    Wed, Feb 06 2013
MCB(Muslim Commercial Bank)    Thu, Feb 07 2013
WTL(Worldcall Telecom)            Thu, Feb 07 2013
DBCI(Dadabhoy Cement Industries)             Thu, Feb 07 2013
WCTL(Worldcall Telecom)                  Thu, Feb 07 2013
DASA(Dadabhoy Sacks)                  Thu, Feb 07 2013
DCTL(Dadabhoy Construction Tec)    Thu, Feb 07 2013
AGSML(Abdullah Shah Ghazi Sugar Mills)  Thu, Feb 07 2013
ENGRO(Engro Chemical)            Fri, Feb 08 2013
FEROZ(Ferozsons Laboratories Limited)    Fri, Feb 08 2013
TSML(Tandliawala Sugar Mills Limited)    Fri, Feb 08 2013
AKDCL(AKD Capital Limited)            Fri, Feb 08 2013
NETSOL(Netsol Technologies Limited)    Mon, Feb 11 2013
NICL(Nimir Industrial Chemical Limited)    Mon, Feb 11 2013
PTC(Pakistan Telecommunication Company) Wed, Feb 13 2013
MEBL(Meezan Bank)                   Tue, Feb 19 2013
FCCL(Fauji Cement)                   Tue, Feb 19 2013
DYNO(Dynea Pakistan Limited)           Wed, Feb 20 2013
BATA Pakistan                   Thu, Feb 21 2013
UPFL(Unilever Pakistan Foods)           Thu, Feb 21 2013
ULEVER                   Tue, Feb 26 2013
SHEL PAkistan                   Thu, Feb 28 2013

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 3 February, 2013


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark was bullish and reached the historical highest levels. With the result season in full swing, trading activity picked up pace with average daily volumes rising by 9.82%WoW to 215.82mn shares. KSE – 100 index closed at 17,266.23 points by gaining 209.87 points or 1.23 percent, while KSE – 30 index has reached on 14,106.66 by gaining of 175 points or 1.26 percent.

We expect the telecom sector to remain under the spotlight on expectation of bumper earnings following more than 7x increase in international call termination rates, while banks are also ripe for the year-end result season rally.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Political noise over nomination of caretaker Prime Minister and NAB Chairman’s letter controversy did not create a significant hurdle for the market
  • The investor community is hoping that current regime would announce the name of interim Prime Minister and chief ministers
  • The result season has kicked off on a positive note where LUCK, Attock group companies announced their financial results which were more or less in line with street estimates. Investors are waiting for the banking sector results to kickoff with MCB in the upcoming week. Payout expectation has kept the banking sector in the limelight with ample investor interest 
  • Key results during the week included the Attock Group companies (POL, ATRL and APL), cement sector companies (LUCK, MLCF and KOHC) and FATIMA
  • MCB and PPL are due to announce their scorecards next week
  • SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) is scheduled to announce its interim monetary policy in the upcoming week where we are not expecting any change in the discount rate
  • Inflation numbers for the Jan’13 was revealed today where CPI inflation on YTD basis reduces marginally by 4bps to 8.28% whereas core inflation and NFNE inflation remain sticky at 9.9%
  • Foreigners remained buyers of US$5.6mn this week


Pakistan Tobacco Co, Pace (Pak) Ltd, Hum Network Limited, NetSol Technologies, Engro Foods Limited, Nestle Pakistan, Standard Chartered Bank, J.D.W. Sugar, Millat Tractors, and Bank Al-Falah were the major gainers while Siemens Engineering, IGI Insurance, Azgard Nine, JS Growth Fund, Attock Petroleum Ltd., TPL Tracker, Cherat Cement, Pakistan Cables, Sui South Gas, and Security Paper Ltd. were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top ten volume leaders were: FCCL, JSCL, PTC, LOTPTA, NIB, ENGRO, KESC, TRG, DGKC and PACE.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram