Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 30 December, 2012


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movement was bullish, amid arrival of more than $600 million under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) from the United States along with investment in the blue-chip stocks. KSE – 100 index closed at 16,943.19 points by gaining 77.85 points or 0.46 percent, while KSE – 30 index has reached 13,795.56 points by increment of 112.34 points or 0.82 percent. Average daily turnover improved slightly to 141.07 million shares up 1.97%WoW with trading dominated in the 2nd and 3rd tier stocks. Foreign investors chose to book profits at current levels and were net sellers of US$ 5.6 million.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Pakistan today received US$ 688 million in CSF (Coalition Support Fund) dues, which should improve the BoP position and reduce pressure on the PkR (down 3.2%FYTD against the US$).
  • The week saw increase in political activity as various parties heightened their election campaigns
  • SBP rejected all bids for the fortnightly T-Bill auction, where bids were skewed towards the 3-month tenor
  • According to analysts, fertilizers may come into the limelight on expectation of strong payouts as well as robust 4QCY12 results on strong fertilizer sales
  • OGDCL announced another successful drilling in the high profile Zin Block
  • ADB (Asian Development Bank) has approved US$ 245 million to improve power distribution system
  • Third tier stocks stole the limelight as PIA with turnaround story and BYCO in anticipation of extension in tax holiday to 20 years drew investor’s interest
  • Byco Petroleum has achieved yet another historic milestone by bringing the first‐ever oil tanker of 70,000 metric tonnes to its newly established deep sea SPM facility constructed by Byco Terminal Pakistan Ltd
  • Heavily leveraged cement sector continues to draw eyeball in anticipation of buoyant offtake and prevalent low interest rate scenario
  • The weighted average banking sector spreads have clocked in at 6.67% in November (lowest level since last 43 months), down 86 bps on yearly basis and 10 bps on monthly basis
  • The FFC plan of acquisition AKBL is almost final as FFC, in its board of directors’ meeting scheduled to be, will discuss and approve the business plan for 2013 including AKBL acquisition


Ghani Glass, TPL Trakker Ltd, Engro Foods Limited, Askari Bank Ltd, Unilever Pakistan Ltd, Soneri Bank, Fauji Cement Company, Pak Oilfields, Sui Northern Gas Pipe, and National Foods were the major gainers while Pak. Int. Cont. Ter. Ltd., IGI Insurance, J.D.W Sugar, K.E.S.C., Murree Brewery, Bata Pak, Faysal Bank, Arif Habib Corp, Adamjee Insurance, and Dawood Hercules Chem. were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top ten volume leaders were: TRG, KESC, FCCL, JSCL, EFOODS, LOTPTA, NCL, BOP, AKBL, and ENGRO.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 22 December, 2012


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movement was very cautious and range bound same as per last week. KSE – 100 index closed at 16,865.34 points by gaining 20.25 points or 0.1 percent. Average volumes increasing by 2%WoW to 136 million shares, indicating that interest was still tilted towards speculative stocks.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Directorate of National Savings is reviewing a cut in profit rate on NSS instruments by 50‐100bp. This follows recent 50bp cut in discount rate by SBP
  • Forex reserves declined to US$ 13.21 billion
  • Telecommunication and Textile stocks were under the limelight on account of 3G auction process and International Clearing House (ICH) case and also for the textile numbers being released during the week
  • Cement stocks are also performing better backed by change in dynamics of the industry due the better selling prices and lower coal prices
  • Foreign flows more or less offset each other with a nominal net outflow of US$ 0.14 million
  • Ministry of Petroleum was considering to impose PRs15/mmbtu District Development Surcharge (DDS) across all gas consumer categories
  • Byco Oil Pakistan Limited announced the completion of Pakistan largest oil refinery with designed capacity of 120kbpd at District Lasbella, Balochistan. The cumulative capacity of the refinery will now increase to 155kpbd and can be further enhanced to 180kbpd
  • PSO started importing petroleum products through PNSC. PSO expected annual saving of US$ 25 million on freight for FO and additional US$ 10 million on Motor gasoline, where the company would start importing Motor gasoline through PNSC from Mar‐2013
  • LSM growth is recorded at a mere 1.9% between 13 says the PBS. Textiles, the mainstay of the economy, have recorded a fall of 0.3% as against a rise of 1.2% in the corresponding period of 4MFY13
  • The used car dealers have increased prices of 5‐year old imported used cars by up to 14% and are fleecing customers


TRG Pakistan, NIB Bank, Rafhan Maize, Nestle Pakistan Limited, Colgate Palmolive, Siemens Pak Engg, Indus Motors, Shel Pakistan, Pak Oilfields, and Fauji Fert BinXD were the major gainers while Soneri Bank, Grays Of Cambridge, Murree Brewery, J.D.W Sugar, Pak. Int. Cont. Ter. Ltd., Bata Pakistan, Sui South Gas, Bank of Khyber, Sui North Gas Pipe, and Arif Habib Corp. were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top average daily turnover for the week are: TRG, BYCO, MLCF, JSCL and DCL

Top ten volume leaders were: TRG, JSCL, HUBC, FCCL, DGKC, KESC, FFC, NIB, NCL and PTC.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 15 December, 2012


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movement was very cautious because of monetary policy. KSE – 100 index closed at 16,845.09 points by gaining 37.18 points or 0.2 percent. Average volumes plunging by 43%WoW to 136mn shares. On a net basis foreigners remained net sellers of US$ 3.8 million this week. The market moved in a range of 200‐odd points and on a WoW basis was up 0.2%. In-line with expectations, SBP cut policy rate by 50bps after market close on Friday.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) opted to cut the discount rate (DR) by 50bps on Friday to 9.5%. This is the first time since July 2007 that the DR has come down to single digits, largely due to soft YTD CPI inflation
  • The fertilizer factories operating in the SNGPL system have been facing severe gas outages and received less than 50% gas supplies in the 11MCY12 against last year. A sub‐committee of ECC has turned down a plan to spend USD400mn from GIDC on gas supply to the struggling fertilizer firms and has instead come up with a revised plan
  • LSM (Large Scale Manufacturing) growth coming in at 1.95% in 4MFY13 
  • Trade deficit decreasing by 20%YoY in November 2012
  • Local auto sales dipping by 3%MoM in November 2012
  • Overseas Pakistanis remitted US$ 5.98 billion in 5MFY13
  • Investors remained bullish in cement stocks on expectations for healthy earnings for the quarter while Pakistan Telecommunications Company Ltd and Lotte Pakistan PTA were also on the investors’ radar on development on the telecom front
  • The Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet’s approval of new pricing for Qadirpur gas field brought some fresh buying in Oil and Gas Development Company as well
  • Amid financial crunch due to circular debt, PPL has decided to buy out assets of Ireland‐based private group Tullow Oil located in Pakistan and Bangladesh. ECC in principle approved Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL)’s bid for the Tullow Pakistan Development Limited and Tullow Bangladesh Limited, subject to the approval by the State Bank of Pakistan
  • Chinese demand for Pakistani cotton has increased and will benefit the Pakistani textile sector in near future
  • MoF has decided that SSGC LPG Company, PSO, OGDC and PPL will inject equity of USD15mn each into the LNG project
  • Locally‐manufactured car sales, including LCVs, vans and jeeps during registered a decline of 31% to 49,092 units during 5MFY13 has compared to 70,727 units
  • MoC notified the reduction in age limit of old and used cars imported under special schemes by the overseas Pakistanis from 5 years to 3 years


Pak. Int. Cont. Terminal Ltd., Hum Network Limited, Nishat (Chunian) Limited, PICIC Growth Fund, Glaxo, Nishat Chunian Power, Grays of Cambridge, Colgate Palmolive, Nishat Power, and E.F.U. Life Assurance were the major gainers while Feroz 1888 Mills Ltd., Pak Services, Azgard Nine, Bata Pakistan, Sui Northern Gas Ltd, Lotte Pakistan PTA, Pakistan Cables, Thal Ltd., Netsol Technologies, and Sui South Gas were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

50bps cut was largely expected, however banks could face near-term headwinds owing to anxiety over spread compression which could be exacerbated by the SBP omitting mention of minimum deposit rate in the MPS statement. Leveraged plays (textiles, cements, fertilizers) meanwhile could see some excitement.

Top ten volume leaders were: LOTPTA, JSCL, FCCL, SNGP, KESC, PTC, DGKC, NCL, ENGRO and ANL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 9 December, 2012


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movement was bullish, Ignoring FPI outflow (US$2.2mn), the market strode past technical hurdles and registered an all-time high closing on Thursday. The second- and third-tier stocks remained in the limelight. Sentiment at the local bourse remained positive during the outgoing week, where the second and the third tier stocks remained in the limelight. KSE – 100 index closed at 16,807.91 points by gaining 234.05 points or 1.41 percent. While KSE – 30 index has reached on 13,621.21 points by increment of 199 points or 1.49 percent. Average daily volumes dropped to 238.79 million shares, down 18.17%WoW. The weekly turnover rose 0.37 percent and traded 313.42 million shares as compared to previous week’s 312.25 million shares.

According to analysts, stock market would also perform well next week. Investors will likely eye the upcoming Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). In this regard, given recent CPI numbers, we expect a further cut in the discount rate by 50-100 bps. With squeezed interest margins for the Banking sector, the floor rate on PLS savings accounts for conventional banks is also widely expected to be reduced in the upcoming MPS. Should the floor rate be reduced, expect a strong performance from the Banking sector. Moreover, leveraged sectors such as Cements and Power are also likely to enter the fray. Higher global commodities and cement sales data, rising urea and DAP offtake for November and improved textile sector valuations on the export relaxation by the European Union played a catalyst role in the bullish sentiment.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • State Bank of Pakistan likely to face difficulties in taking MPS decision, On the one hand, the Government of Pakistan is eager to lower inflation and bring down the interest rate to a single‐digit to gain sympathies of the people in the next general elections
  • Encouraging cement offtake numbers for Nov’12. And a commitment by the US to provide US$ 200 million to finance the Diamer Bhasha Dam (positive for the Cement sector)
  • Consumption of Pakistani cement in India is thinning out with total cement exports to the latter from the former standing at 183,387tonnes in the 5MFY13, down 38.5% compared with 298,214tonnes in the corresponding period last year
  • A statement by Dr. Hafeez Sheikh that the US will soon disburse US$ 500 million to US$ 600 million in lieu of CSF payment due to Pakistan
  • OGRA had given a proposal to the govt. to approve PRs31.12/mmbtu increase in gas prices effective 1st January 2013 to meet the revenue requirement for gas utilities. The proposed hike implied 9.87% hike in gas prices for all domestic and industrial consumers for Jan‐Jul 2013
  • Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources would be putting forward a plan to the ECC for the gradual phase out of the CNG industry
  • PTA withdrew its Sep 25th directive for establishing an International Clearing House (ICH) in the wake of Lahore High Court order where a petition was filed. Under ICH, all incoming international traffic had to be handled through a centralized gateway, which was to be operated and maintained by PTCL, which would be a negative news for telecom sector 
  • The government was considering to approve gas supply plan dedicated for four fertilizer plants on SNGPL network including EnVen, Dawood Hercules, Pak Arab and Agritech
  • APTMA raised concerns against possible increase in duty on Polysester Synthetic Fiber (PSF) imports. Local PSF manufacturers increasing their product prices in anticipation of imposition of 10.5% duty on imports
  • On macro front, forex reserves fell to US$13.5bn and CPI for November clocked in at 6.9%YoY
  • Government of Pakistan appears to have decided to gradually do away with the CNG industry. Under the plan, which has been hammered out by top mandarins, vehicles of more than 800cc will be barred from using CNG as fuel


Grays of Cambridge., Lotte Pakistan PTA, PICIC Growth Fund, Bank of Khyber, Sui South Gas, Faisal Bank, Netsol, MCB, Pak.Int.Con  and Colgate Palmolive were the major gainers while Shifa Int Hospitals Ltd, Feroze1888, Bankislami Pakistan, National Foods and Agriauto Ind were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top ten volume leaders were: LOTPTA, JSCL, FCCL, ANL, PTC, SNGP, KESC, ENGRO, DGKc and NBP.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Companies Results (Dec 6 Update)

Mehran Sugar(MRNS)
Profit/Loss (million): 51.98
EPS: 13.03
Bonus/Div: 7.5%, 10%B

Huffaz Seamless Pipe (HSPI)
Profit/Loss (million): (22.636)
EPS: (4.370)
Bonus/Div: NIL

Byco Petroleum Pakistan (BYCO)
Profit/Loss (million): (371.925)
EPS: (0.33)
Bonus/Div: NIL

Exide Pakistan (EXIDE)
Profit/Loss (million): 83.163
EPS: 37.94
Bonus/Div: NIL

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR)
Profit/Loss (million): 150.123
EPS: (0.50)
Bonus/Div: NIL

Karachi Electric (KESC)
Profit/Loss (million): 2308.214
EPS: 0.11
Bonus/Div: NIL

Kohinoor Energy(KOHE)
Profit/Loss (million): 46.421
EPS: 0.36
Bonus/Div: NIL

Engro Chemical (ENGRO)
Profit/Loss (million): 509.251
EPS: 1.94
Bonus/Div: NIL

Pakistan Cables (PACL)
Profit/Loss (million): 53.0
EPS: 1.13
Bonus/Div: NIL

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 1 December, 2012


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index has continued its upward momentum and tested fresh highs as FPIs offer  tailwinds. KSE – 100 index closed at 16,573.86 points by gaining 336 points or 2.07 percent. While KSE – 30 index has reached on 13,421.81 points by increment of 250 points or 1.90 percent. According to analysts, stock market would also perform well next week as banking, cement and oil companies are already performing well, while it is likely that the fertilizer sector also come in the limelight. In anticipation of lower inflation for the month of November and further monetary easing, the market maintained the bull-run.

Average daily volumes showed a significant rise this week clocking in at 291.8 million shares (+15.5%WoW) while net FIPI inflow stood at US$ 6.7 million, up by 17%WoW from previous week’s net inflow of US$ 5.7million. Pakistan-US ties also eased, which provided support to the KSE-100 index which surged to an all-time high of 16,574 points. The rally was also enjoyed by foreign investors, which injected $6.7 million in the exchange, while volumes improved further by 16 percent on a week-on-week basis. Investors remained bullish in cement stocks, while textile sector also joined the bandwagon, as investors were hoping better earnings of the sectors amid better margins.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Pakistan banking spreads has reached at their lowest point since June 2005. Banking spreads a key determinant for Pakistan banks’ core earnings stood at average 7.11%, down 54bps versus 7.65% during the same period last year
  • PSMC likely to be allowed to import Euro-II compliant parts from India which would allow the company to resume manufacturing of Alto
  • T-bill auction where cut-off yields were largely flat (+1bps to +5bps) with participation skewed towards the 6M tenor leading market to firm expectations of at least 50bps cut in Discount Rate (+ve for leveraged sectors, cements and textiles in particular)
  • Unilever Overseas holding, the parent company of ULEVER deciding to voluntary delist from KSE
  • Lahore High Court ordering the GoP to start construction on the Kalabagh dam (+ve for cements)
  • FBR has finalized a 3‐Year Strategic Plan with lucrative incentives like ample reduction in sales tax rate from 16 to 10%; corporate income tax 35 to 30% while tax rate for AOPs and individuals would be brought down to a lower level 
  • With the objective of providing subsidy to fertilizer industry, it was proposed to the ECC of Cabinet to reduce sales tax rate on fertilizer from existing 16 to 11.3% and reduce GDS by PKR68/mmbtu


Grays Of Cambridge., Bata (Pakistan), K.E.S.C., Engro Foods Limited, Nishat Power Limited, JSCL, Netsol, Cherat Cement, Packages Ltd. and Pak. Int.Cont. Ter. Ltd. were the major gainers while Pak Cables, Pace (Pak) Ltd, Kohinoor Energy, Allied Rental Modaraba, Indus Motors, IGI Insurance, Faysal Bank, Nishat Chunian, Clariant Pakistan and Pak Suzuki Motors were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram