Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 25 November, 2012


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market stays in consolidation mode as the deteriorating law and order situation in the country kept investors jittery. KSE – 100 index closed at 16,238 points by gaining 40 points or 0.2 percent. Average volumes too improved by 48 percent to 253 million shares, while foreigners bought shares worth $5.7 million on a net basis.

Investor interest was mainly skewed towards second and third tier stocks while strong fundaments of the cement and the textile sector also attracted attention.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • With the implementation of EU trade package`, Record exports in textile sector
  • Economic Coordination Committee of the Federal Cabinet has announced to impose ban on import of used cars more than 3 years old
  • On the macro front, Pakistan reported a current account surplus of $258 million in 4MFY13 versus a deficit of $1.7 billion in 4M FY12
  • Oil sales figures were released this week with 4M FY13 consumption down 4 percent YoY
  • Hike in wheat support price by 14 percent, or Rs 150 per 40 kg to Rs 1,200 per 40 kg from Rs 1,050 per 40 kg, this week
  • Along with cement stocks and Engro Corp, Islamic banks also came in limelight
  • Investors interest remained in mid cap cement stocks amid hope of better earnings
  • Gas restoration and dedicated gas fields expected announcement to fertilizer plants kept interest alive in the sector especially in Engro Corp
  • Although FY13 wheat sowing season has already commenced, nonetheless the decision could help kick-start the seasonal uptake in the demand for DAP in December
  • Central bank announced to lifting minimum deposit rate requirement to Islamic bank brought interest in Meezan Bank and Bank Islami while BAFL also rose as it has aprox 20 percent of Islamic deposits in its deposit base
  • After Asian PTA producers proposed to link the PTA price with Paraxylene to improve their margins LOTPTA also gained momentum on the local bourse
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) confirmed that the payment of the seventh installment of the standby arrangement, worth $394.3 million, was successfully made to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
  • D‐8 agrees to boost trade to US$ 500 billion


Grays Of Cambridge., Pace (Pak) Ltd, Nishat Chunian Limited, Adamjee Insurance, Indus Motors, Agriautos Industries, Bata Pakistan, Bank Islami Pakistan, ANL and Faysal Bank were the major gainers while IGI Insurance, Jahangir Siddiqui & Co, Kohinoor Energy, Murree Brewery, Allied Rental Mod, Colgate Palmolive, National Foods, Attock Refinery, Siemens Pak Engg., and Attock Cement were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 18 November, 2012


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market has faced the technical correction and moved to a consolidated mode as FPIs lose winning streak. KSE – 100 index closed at 16,197.74 points by losing 45.53 points or 0.28 percent, while KSE – 30 index closed at 13,184.09 points by losing 147.32 points or 1.10 percent. This decline reflects the conservative stance taken by investors due to the volatile law and order situation in Karachi, as well as some profit taking.

Average daily volumes improved to 170 million shares, up 0.3%WoW. Foreign interest also declined this week, as foreigners were net sellers of US$ 0.6 million in the market. On the macro front, remittances in October stood at a record US$ 1.37 billion.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • According to analysts, the factors that contributed to the weekly decline were foreign selling in blue chips, economic worries despite record remittances last month and security unrest in the city
  • various court cases especially dual office case and the hearing against extension of Chief of Army Staff would remain in limelight in the coming weeks
  • The textile sector remained in the limelight this week, due to EU Trade Package going into effect from November 15. Textile stocks would attract extended buying after spinning mills continued to export significant amount of yarn to China
  • Cement sector stocks were also amongst the top volume leaders due to varying news pertaining to reduction and then recovery in retail cement prices. Besides, decline in coal prices in the international markets would keep the profits of cement manufactures on the higher side
  • Auto sales figures released during the week for October recorded a decline of 38%YoY and 3%MoM
  • The Fertilizer sector may come in the limelight next week with weak sales leading to speculation of a potential urea price cut
  • Pakistan paid back installments of two loans worth a cumulative US$ 173.2 million (US$ 146.9 million under SBA and US$ 26.3 million on account of previous loans to the IMF)
  • According to SBP data, workers’ remittances touched record high in Oct‐12, increasing by 20% MoM/34% YoY to US$ 1.36 billion
  • The demand from one of the coalition partners to impose emergency in Karachi on poor law and order shattered investor confidence during the earlier part of the week
  • Newsflow on gas supply for SNGPL‐based fertilizer firms remained negative, with Dawood Hercules announcing disconnection of gas supply on early winter load‐shedding and no concrete progress on short term gas supply plan (DAWH ‐6.4%, ENGRO ‐5.4%)
  • Government of Pakistan has released PKR 15 billion to PSO on account of liabilities against power sector including clearing LC. The cash strapped company owes PKR 31.9 billion to local and PKR 87.27 billion to KPC
  • Citibank officially announced that it had entered into an agreement with HBL to sell its Credit Card and Consumer Lending portfolio in Pakistan


Pak. Int. Cont. Ter. Ltd., Kohinoor Energy, Azgard Nine, Jahangir Siddiqui & Co, IGI Insurance, Tri-Pak Films Ltd., Grays of Cambridge, J.D.W. Sugar, Soneri Bank and Shifa Int Hospitals Ltd were the major gainers while Attock Cement, TPL Trakker Ltd, Dawood Hercules, Engro Corporation, Ghani Glass, FFBL, Allied Rental Mod, Packages Ltd., SNGP, and K.E.S.C. were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 10 November, 2012


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market continued with its positive momentum and the KSE – 100 index has closed the week at an all time high level. KSE – 100 index closed at 16,243.27 points by gaining 141.72 points or 0.9 percent. The benchmark has already gained 43% on year to date basis and likely to move further upwards in the upcoming days.

Average daily volumes declining to 146 million shares, down 3%WoW. However, foreign interest remained mixed, with net buying worth US$ 14.9 million during the week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • FPI’s remained positive despite fears of Rupee weakening ahead of repayments to IMF (~US$ 600 million)
  • 6.8 million bales of cotton crop reached ginning factories across Pakistan by Nov 1st showing a 2.2% increase from last year
  • Implementation of a preferential trade package for import of 75 items from Pakistan was been delayed due to nonissuance of a waiver‐notification by the World Trade Organization (WTO)
  • FFC Energy (100% owned subsidiary of Fauji Fertilizer Co), announced completion of its 50MW wind power project in Thatta, Sindh on 7th Nov 2012
  • EFoods was a star performer (up 9.7% WoW) of the week, on rumors of strategic sale by the parent to raise cash
  • For telecoms, verdict of International Clearing House is likely to be announced on 14th Nov which could cast a make or break spell
  • Cement sales figures released for October showed decline of 5.9%YoY to 2.8mn tons led by weak exports
  • Government plans regarding gas allocation to fertilizer plants
  • Atlas Honda plans to expand production capacity to 1m units, which is estimated to cost around an additional US$ 50 million 
  • Government of Pakistan likely to shelve 0.3 million tons of urea import plan for Rabi season
  • KESC has planned to invest PKR 40 billion to enhance capacity
  • The FIM has stepped up its efforts to lobby with other ministries to reduce the age limit for import of used cars from five‐year to three years in a bid to provide protection to local manufacturers


Thal limited, Engro Foods Limited, JS Growth Fund, IGI Insurance, JS Bank, Soneri Bank, JSCL, Bank al Falah, Attock Cement, and Dawood Hercules were the major gainers while National Foods, Murree Brewery, Pace (Pak) Ltd, Pak Cables, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Cherat cement, Rafhan Maize Prod., EFU General Insurance, UNILEVER Pakistan and Fauji Cement were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 4 November, 2012


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market has managed to break the elusive 16,000 points mark for the first time after several futile attempts. KSE – 100 index closed at 16,101.55 points by gaining 288.83 points or 1.83 percent. While the KSE 30-share index has reached on 13,209.25 points by gaining 282.06 points or 2.18 percent. Average volumes too surged by 13%WoW to 150 million shares while net buying from foreigners this week amounted to US$12.6 million.

Investors remained confident throughout the week, because of expectations that October 2012 Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure will slide further. Market expectations were realized on Friday with October 2012 CPI clocking in at 7.66% versus 8.79% last month, thus raising hopes of another rate cut in the next monetary policy (due in December).

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Investors are expecting further rate cut in next monetary policy by State Bank of Pakistan, which is due in month of December
  • Urea sales went down 50% YoY and 18% MoM in September due to lower off‐take post rains. However DAP sales picked up 68% YoY in anticipation of price hike in the coming month with the beginning of DAP application for wheat sowing season
  • Lucky Cement has posted 34% earnings growth for 1QFY13
  • For textile manufacturers another positive came into effect with the official commencement of the EU duty waiver (valid till Dec ‐ 2013)
  • Investor interest was concentrated in the Cement and the Textile sectors with LUCK and NML outperforming the market by 1.1% and 3.6% respectively
  • Besides, the sale of cement in the local market remained on the higher side and cement exports to Afghanistan is also likely to gear up.
  • Investors remained confident throughout the week, because of xpectations that October 2012 Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure will slide further. Market expectations were realized on Friday with October 2012 CPI clocking in at 7.66% versus 8.79% last month, thus raising hopes of another rate cut in the next monetary policy (due in December)
  • Better-than-expected earnings of Pakistan Petroleum Ltd and Hubco triggered across-the-board buying
  • Net buying by foreigners this week amounted to $12.6 million


Attock Cement, IGI Insurance, POL, NML, UBL, Pak Services, TRG Pakistan and Bank of Khyber were the major gainers while Netsol Technologies, Kohinoor Energy, Agriauto Ind, SNGP, ENGRO, Pak Cables and Pak Suzuki Motors were major losers in the benchmark KSE - 100 this week.

According to experts, the index would stand around 17,000-points level by the end of December with the expected improvement in business fundamentals of fertilizer manufacturers and telecom companies and also hopes of another rate cut in the next monetary policy.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram