Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 27 October, 2012


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market has witnessed a consolidation before the long weekend and reached new highs by maintaining upward momentum. The week was mostly dominated by corporate results, which influenced stock specific movements. KSE – 100 index closed at 15,812.72 points by gaining 19.97 points or 0.13 percent. While the KSE 30-share index has reached on 12,927.19 points by losing 20.14 points or -0.16 percent.

Average daily volumes improving to 133 million shares, up 31% WoW. Foreigners showed interest in the market, with net buying worth US$ 5.5 million during the week. A slew of major blue chip companies announced corporate results for the Jul-Sep 2012 period during the week, with cement and textile sector dominating on improved YoY earnings.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • The fertilizer sector remained in the limelight due to the government’s plans regarding gas allocation and urea import, during the last week
  • ECC in principal agreed to lay down 1000km pipeline for 4 fertilizer plants. Government has rejected short term gas supply plan for fertilizer plants
  • US opposition over the ICH mechanism, as well as Suspension of International Clearing House (ICH) mechanism by the Lahore High Court on the last day of the week put telecom major PTC under pressure, which slid down 9.2% WoW
  • Result sentiments mostly dominated with leading names (FFC, Lucky, DGKC, NBP, NML,INDU & PSMC) unveiling their quarterly score‐cards, however payouts were thin
  • LOTPTA posted weaker than expected 3Q12 earnings. LOTPTA also plans to invest US$ 20 million to modernize PTA plant to save conversion cost
  • Lucky Cement along with the group companies made a tender offer to the public for acquisition of 12.09% stake or 11.169 million shares of ICI Pakistan at an offer price of PRs 186.42
  • Pakistan’s export of textile and clothing rebounded in Sep’12 after witnessing a slump for at least one year, mainly owing to a slight surge in demand from recession‐hit key markets of Europe and United States. More importantly yarn exports rose by 40.8%YoY/28.3%MoM
  • The management of Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) would request the federal government to release another PKR 5 billion so that consistency in production could be maintained
  • Supreme Court (SC) questioned the formula under which OGRA linked the price of domestic CNG with imported petrol on a weekly basis. Issuing notices to MD of SNGPL and SSGCL in oil pricing case, a two‐judge bench sought from Chairman OGRA a report on the formula used for gas pricing. And SC has ordered to reduce the CNG prices in country.
  • Russia and China appear to be losing the race for the US$ 1.5 billion IP gas pipeline project as Islamabad and Tehran have agreed to sign a US$ 250 million loan agreement next month for laying Pakistan’s portion of the pipeline
  • ATRL and Hyundai Engineering Company, Korea agreed to enter into a contract on engineering, procurement for up‐gradation project. The agreement includes the establishment of a preflight unit for ATRL refinery, which will help to enhance refining capacity by 10,400 bpd of oil, a naphtha isomerisation unit to increase production of premium motor gasoline by 20,000 tons/ month


Kohinoor Energy, Clariant Pak, Nishat Chunian Ltd, J.D.W Sugar, Pakistan Tobacco Company, Bata Pakistan Ltd., Fatima Fertilizer, EFU General Insu, Faysal Bank and K.E.S.C. were the major gainers while Allied Rental Modaraba, Tri-Pack Films, P.T.C.L., Lafarge Pakistan Cement Ltd, NIB Bank, Nishat Power Ltd., Pak Suzuki Motors, Packages Limited, Unilever Pakistan and International Steel Limited were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top ten volume leaders were: DGKC, JSCL, PKGS, KESC, PACE, PTC, ANL, EFOODS, FATIMA and NML.

Result season would continue into the next week where key announcements would include UBL, HBL, ENGRO and PPL. On the macroeconomic front, market will keep a close eye on the CPI reading for Oct’12, which could come in below 8%YoY, further strengthening street expectations of a rate cut.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

KSE Results Oct 24 Update

Searle Pakistan (SEARL)
Profit/Loss (million): 88.067
EPS: 1.87
Div/Bonus: NIL

Dost Steel Limited (DSL)
Profit/Loss (million): (1.689)
EPS: (0.03)
Div/Bonus: NIL

Shezan International (SHEZ)
Profit/Loss (million): 75.725
EPS: 11.47
Div/Bonus: NIL

PACE Pakistan (PACE)
Profit/Loss (million): (163.732)
EPS: (0.59)
Div/Bonus: NIL

National Bank of Pakistan (NBP)
Profit/Loss (million): 3608.214
EPS: 6.38
Div/Bonus: NIL

Millat Tractors Limited (MTL)
Profit/Loss (millio): 354.471
EPS: 9.68
Div/Bonus: NIL

D.G. Khan Cement (DGKC)
Profit/Loss (million): 1438.898
EPS: 3.28
Div/Bonus: NIL

Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL)
Profit/Loss (million): 767.128
EPS: 21.92
Div/Bonus: NIL

Oil & Gas Development Coroporation (OGDC)
Profit/Loss (million): 25665.705
EPS: 5.67
Div/Bonus: NIL

National Refinery Limited (NRL)
Profit/Loss (million): 802.392
EPS: 10.03
Div/Bonus: NIL

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL)
Profit/Loss (million): 1486.621
EPS: 2.28
Div/Bonus: 22.50%

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 20 October, 2012


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market has witnessed a mixed movement in this week. KSE – 100 index closed at 15,792.75 points by gaining 98.54 points or 0.63 percent. While the KSE 30-share index has reached on 12,947.33 points by gaining 45 points or 0.34 percent. Average daily turnover was recorded at 120 million shares, up 3%WoW.

KSE has also modified the rules of the game by introducing free float based index. Now it would be difficult for punters and market heavy weights to manipulate the index returns. The index weights of high capitalized stocks with lower trading volumes were reduced substantially, hence changing the dynamics of the game. If you look at Nestle, OGDC and Colgate Palmolive you will realize the reduction in index weights. It is interesting to see from now on it would be difficult to maneuver the index with OGDC as the index weight was reduced by 40%. Hopefully the free float index would revive the investor confidence towards the index.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Foreign interest was also evident at the KSE with FIPI at US$ 6.4 million this week
  • As per the weekly oil price review mechanism, the government reduced petrol and CNG price by PRs2.09/litre and PRs1.92/kg respectively, while prices of diesel and kerosene were up by PRs3.16/litre and PRs1.92/liter effective October 15th
  • Pakistan will begin utilizing EU trade concessions awarded under Autonomous Trade Preferences (ATP) from Nov 1, 2012
  • AKBL among Banks gained 4.9%WoW on expectations of a tender offer post Fauji Foundation’s acquisition of AKBL
  • PTCL results dampen the market sentiment after declaration of hefty loss, but soon after investors realize the loss was largely on account of one time VSS cost
  • POL and MCB results were also lower in contrast with market expectation
  • FFBL results were fairly close to analyst estimates whereas exceptional dividend payout boosts the investor confidence towards the stock
  • During the outgoing week cement sector came back strongly largely on the back of result expectation. Results of Cherat Cement and Attock cement seems fairly encouraging which push other top tier cement stocks in action
  • FDI fell by 67% during the 1QFY13 mainly due to lack of foreign investors' interest owing to adverse law and order situation and deepening energy crisis
  • NCCPL has imposed PKR3/PKR100,000 as service charges on CGT calculation on share trading
  • Government of Pakistan is unable to arrange PKR57.018bn funding for import of 1000 MW electricity from Iran with the purpose to lessen the ongoing power crisis
  • NEPRA slashed KESC power tariff by 7 to 37 paisa/unit for 2MFY13 under the monthly fuel adjustment formula
  • Ministry has suggested long‐ and short‐ term solutions to resolve the issues faced by the fertilizer industry by proposing a detailed summary to the ECC
  • Pakistan has requested the ADB to act as lead financier for US$ 4.792 billion loan for the construction of Bhasha Dam project designed to generate 4500MW electricity and live water storage capacity of 6.4maf
  • ADB has hold back financing of US$ 1.14 billion for over 1,000MW coal‐based power plants if GoP continues to insist that these plants will run on Thar coal instead of imported coal 
  • The automobile sector offered 431 cars an average every day in FY12, showing an increase of 11% over the previous year, but business is expected to slow down during the current FY13


Result season continues next week and corporate earnings are likely to continue dominating investor sentiment. In this regard, mainboard companies that will announce results next week include FFC, KAPCO, LOTPTA, OGDC, BAFL, NBP, DGKC, LUCK, NML and PSO, among others. With Eid-ul-Azha around the corner, next week could potentially end on Thursday which may impact weekly volumes and potentially induce profit taking ahead of the long weekend. According to analysts, market is likely to remain active on the back of result season.

National Foods, Bata (Pakistan), Azgard Nine, Attock Refinery, DGKC, LUCKY Cement and Cherat Cement were the major gainers while Thal limited, TPL Trakker Ltd, Nishat (Chunian) Limited, Shifa Int Hospitals Ltd, Colgate Palmolive, BankIslami Pakistan, International Steels Ltd., SHEL, ENGRO, POL, PSO, HCAR and Hum Network Limited were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top ten volume leaders were: PTC, FCCL, DGKC, JSCL, ANL, NML, AKBL, PGF, EFOODS and FFBL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 13 October, 2012


The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was volatile in this week. KSE – 100 index was coming close to 16,000 points mark but eventually closed at 15,694 points by losing 60.18 points or -0.38 percent. While the KSE 30-share index has reached on 12,903.38 points by losing 310.48 points or -2.35 percent. Average daily volumes in the outgoing week were recorded at 117mn shares, down 13%WoW.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Following the recent 50bp cut in discount rate, the govt. has reduced profit rates on NSS (National Savings Scheme) instruments by ~46-80bps with effect from October 12th
  • Foreigners showed interest in the market, with net buying worth US$9.4mn in the week
  • On the political front, finally the draft letter was approved by Supreme Court despite inclusion of text related to immunity
  • 50 Oil and Gas Exploration and Production blocks on offer under bidding route by government
  • ADB has enhanced Pakistan's growth forecast for the year 2012 to 3.7% from 3.6% projected earlier
  • In September 2012, cement sales were up 14%YoY and 14% MoM, whereas auto sales were down 31%YoY and 6% MoM
  • OGDCL is conducting evaluation of different overseas exploration blocks and making efforts to acquire exploration blocks in Commonwealth of Independent States, Africa and China
  • IMF forecast in its latest health check on the world economy that global output in 2012 would grow just 3.3%, down from a July estimate of 3.5%
  • MCB, MEBL, BIPL amongst Banks, Cements (ACPL, MLCF, KOHC), Fertilizers (FFBL) and Telecoms (PTC) announcing their results in the coming week
  • Lucky Cement would form a SPV called Lucky Holdings to eventually acquire 75.8% stake in ICI Pakistan
  • US waived restrictions to allow US$ 2 billion aid to Pakistan


Colgate Palmolive, Packages Limited, Jubilee General Ins. Co Ltd, IGI Insurance, Nishat (Chunian) Limited, Allied Bank Limited, Askari Bank Limited, I.C.I Pakistan, Lucky Cement, Sui Northern Gas Ltd., NBP, MCB, DGKC and United Bank Limited were the major gainers while Pace (Pak) Ltd, Engro Corporation, Dawood Hercules Corp., KAPCO, Attock Refinery, Attock Petroleum, National Refinery, Pak Oilfields, Indus Motors and Hub Power Company were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

KSE News (October 8th Week)

KSE 100-index is expected to move down stairs due to large expected selling next week because State Bank of Pakistan slashed the interest rate by 50 basis points to 10 percent against the market expectations of 100 basis points. This will obviously be a profit-selling.

“The KSE is likely to invite profit-selling to get consolidated next week,” said Mohammed Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities, adding that the benchmark index may decline by 100-150 points in the week. In the week ended on Friday, the KSE-100 Index increased by 309.57 points, or two percent, to 15,754.39 points. The index hit an all-time high of 15,789 points on Thursday. The previous historic high of 15,676 points was recorded in April 2008. Sohail said that the selling would be triggered due to lower-than-expected interest rate cut by the central bank in its monetary policy announcement on Friday after the market closure. “The SBP slashed the rate by 50 basis points to 10 percent against 100 basis points market expectations.” He said that those companies, which had invited significant buying in the previous sessions over the expectations of higher rate cut, would be subject to profit-selling. “Cement and textile stocks might lead the downward rally.”

Faisal Rajab Ali, a member of the KSE, endorsed Sohail and added that the market would be subject to significant profit-selling next week. “The KSE-100 Index may plunge by 500 points in the immediate reaction to the lower-than-expected rate cut.” He argued that the market hit an all-time high on the rate cut hype. And now it is all set to find its way in downward direction as there seemed to be no immediate buying trigger in the market. The corporate results for the quarter ended September 30 have the potential to take the market to a new high in the near future, he said.

 An analyst at KASB Securities also foresaw a brief corrective phase at the KSE next week. “With the index hovering near the psychological level of 16,000 points, it would be interesting to see how the choppy waters are navigated.”

So brothers, be careful at this stage especially in buying.Please read the below article for further analysis.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 6 October, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was bullish. KSE – 100 index has reached 15,754.39 points by gaining 310 points or +2.00 percent. While the KSE 30-share index has reached on 13,213.86 points by gaining 184.42 points or 1.42 percent. In the process, the KSE-100 index also breached its all-time high of 15,676 points, achieved in April, 2008.

There was pickup in trading activity with average daily volumes of 134 million compared with 95 million last week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) has announced a discount rate cut of 50bps in its MPS for October 2012. The rate cut came in at the lower end of the expectation range (50bps-100bps), where according to analysts the market will react negatively to the less than expected rate cut next week
  • The effectiveness of SBP's current monetary policy stance continues to weigh upon improvement in the fiscal position, better availability of energy, and an increase in foreign financial inflows
  • The KSE management announced that the benchmark KSE‐100 index would move to free float from the current market cap method effective Oct 15th 2012
  • Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has recently revealed the inflation numbers for the month of September’12 where CPI clocked at 8.79%YoY whilst taking the 1QFY13 inflation to 9.14%
  • The textile sector was in vogue during the week, amid a string of announcements, where textile companies generally surprised with above line payouts
  • Cement sector scrips also witnessed brisk activity as expectations of rate cut as well as soft coal price outlook generated interest in the sector
  • Fertilizer stocks were back in action after FFBL bounced back from lower level on provisional offtake numbers were swirled amongst market participants
  • The oil sector was riding on the back of news related to discovery
  • Amid ongoing talks with IMF and power sector receivables touching a record PKR 487 billion, the government has released about PKR 82 billion to the power sector in the first quarter against an annual target of PKR 120 billion set for FY13, suggesting a slippage in achieving a 4.7% fiscal deficit limit
  • FBR has provisionally collected approximately PKR 403 billion during July - September FY13 against the quarterly target of PKR 43 billion, reflecting a massive shortfall of PKR 34 billion
  • PSMC raised the prices of its locally assembled cars and light commercial vehicles effective from October 1, dealers said. The new prices for Mehran VXR E2 are PKR632,000 up by PKR25,000. The total increase in the current year is PKR70,000 for this car
  • ADB has enhanced Pakistan's growth forecast for the year 2012 to 3.7 from 3.6% projected earlier
  • A declining interest rate environment should shift commercial banks' focus from investment in government securities and redirect their attention towards core banking activities
  • Government of Pakistan has released 5 billion rupees to cash strapped PSO which had requested PKR 17 billion to avert a default, a senior official of PSO said. National fuel supplying company was facing serious financial problems as its liabilities had once gain soared to PKR 150
  • ECC approves LNG import, sugar export. ECC of Cabinet has allowed immediate import of 200,000 tons of urea for Rabi season on a summary submitted by MoI
  • Pakistan likely to miss cotton target by 1.5 million bales because of a decrease in sowing area as well as flash floods in major crop production areas of Sindh and Punjab

Attock Refinery, Murree Brewery, Nestle Pakistan Limited, Packages Limited, NCL, SHEL, FFBL, and Sui Northern Gas Ltd were the major gainers while K.E.S.C., Silkbank Limited, Pak Services, NIB Bank, MEBL, UBL, HMB, BAFL, MCB and Rafhan Maize were major losers in the benchmark KSE‐100 this week.

NML was the volume leader this week (41.4 million shares) followed by LPCL (36.3 million shares) and PTC (28.1 million shares)

Top ten volume leaders were: NML, PTC, DGKC, JSCL, PACE, FCCL, KESC, FFBL, LOTPTA, and ENGRO.

The Cement and Textile sectors which could come in for some profit taking. However, according to analysts banks are ripe for a relief rally as margin compression concerns abate.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Companies Results, Oct 2012

Dewan Cement Limited (DCL)
Profit/Loss (million): 235.868
EPS: 1.07
Dividend/Bonus: NIL

Din Textile Mills Limited (DINT)
Profit/Loss (million): 0.204
EPS: (32.85)
Dividend/Bonus: NIL

Tariq Glass Ind (TGL)
Profit/Loss (million): 78.309
EPS: 4.22
Dividend/Bonus: NIL

Thal Limited (THALL)
Profit/Loss (million): 651.181
EPS: 22.49
Dividend/Bonus: 115%, 10%B

Murree Brewer (MUREB)
Profit/Loss (million): 238.150
EPS: 27.56
Dividend/Bonus: 50%, 10%B

Fecto Cement (FECTC)
Profit/Loss (million): 163.522
EPS: 6.91
Dividend/Bonus: 10%

Pakistan Services Limited (PSEL)
Profit/Loss (million): 183.413
EPS: 24.10
Dividend/Bonus: NIL

Shezan International (SHEZ)
Profit/Loss (million): 87.720
EPS: 34.56
Dividend/Bonus: 90%, 10%B

MARI Gas Company (MARI)
Profit/Loss (million): (624.206)
EPS: 12.14
Dividend/Bonus: NIL