Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 29 September, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was lackluster. KSE – 100 index has reached 15,444 points by losing 6 points or -0.05 percent. While the KSE 30-share index has reached on 13,029.44 points by gaining 5 points or 0.04 percent.

The weekly turnover went up by 90.40 percent and traded 113.94 million shares as compared to previous week’s 59.84 million shares.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Investors opted for a cautious stance ahead of the monetary policy statement due on October 5
  • Foreign interest was intact as foreigners were net buyers of $4.9 million
  • Increase in cement dispatches and healthy results announcement from mid-cap cement stocks kept the sector in the limelight
  • The market seemingly looks to be awaiting triggers with the result season having completed coupled with social uncertainty
  • Countrywide protests as well as potential political uncertainty following rising tensions between the judiciary and the Government following objections raised by the Supreme Court on the draft letter to Swiss Courts
  • Government may provide US$400mn for transmission network for fertilizer. Petroleum ministry has proposed allocation of 202mmcfd of gas from Kunar Pasaki Deep, Bahi, Reiti Maru, Mari and Makori East to fertilizer units currently on SNGPL network
  • Owing to influx of used cars, the continuous slow‐down in sale of locally‐made cars is hampering production plans of auto makers
  • MoF has approved an increase in petrol price by PKR1.73/ltr, while price‐cuts have beenannounced in other petroleum products from under the weekly revision in POL prices
  • PSO has saved PKR 50 million in foreign exchange by giving haulage contract of 71,500 tons furnace oil to PNSC. The tanker MT Lahore is presently unloading 71,500 tons of FO
  • APTMA has said that Textile industry has incurred over PKR3bn production loss besides rendering mns of workers jobless due to sudden cut in gas supply Tuesday night
  • SNGPL gas supply from Qadirpur Gas Field has started and he hoped that gas supply to the power sector will be restored on Thursday night and industry will get on Friday

Abbot Laboratories, Media Times Limited, Indus Dyeing, Attock Petroleum Limited, NETSOL,MDTL, IGIIL, PCAL, ULEVER, GRAYS, UPFL, DAWH, PKGS and Shifa Int Hospitals Ltd were the major gainers while Siemens Engineering, Ibrahim Fibers, Mari Gas, COLG, GHGL, AGL, ABL, FFBL, TRG, BAFL, UBL, Dawood Hercules and Philip Morris Pak Ltd were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources has reportedly assured OMCs that it will shore up their marketing margins on petrol and diesel by Rs 1 to Rs 1.5 per litre due to rupee depreciation and inflationary pressures on OMCs profitability. Analysts estimate this would boost OMCs earnings by 14-25 percent if it materialises. Key OMCs - PSO, APL and Shell - witnessed a weekly return of 0.2 percent, 6.9 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 22 September, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was volatile. KSE – 100 index has reached 15,453 points almost unchanged from previous week. While the KSE 30-share index has reached on 13,024.57 points by losing of 49 points or 0.37 percent.

Profit taking at the higher levels kept the upside capped and the index closed flat while avg. volumes declined to 129mn shares/day. Foreign investors injected US$ 3.9 million during the week.

According to experts, the Karachi Stock Exchange’s (KSE) 100-index touched the all-time high of 15,676 points next week, brushing aside the changes of a fall in the index due to rollover pressure. A significant decline in the interest rates regime, particularly in the Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) and Treasury Bills in recent times, would keep invest tracking-in at the KSE next week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Political noise has tapered off slightly but could come to the fore on 25 Sep, 2012. Supreme Court hearing to review progress on Swiss cases issue
  • In the light of recent inflation numbers and sighting expected inflation to remain in single digit may influence SBP to further cut the discount rate in upcoming MPS by 50bps to 75bps which may fuel the bull with utmost energy to reach new levels
  • Hefty cash payouts by Attock group companies kept excitement levels high sporadically
  • Signing of MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) between DAWH and Pakarab Fertilizer with the former signaling its intention to divest its entire shareholding in DH Fertilizer Limited to Pakarab. As per the notification issued by Dawood Corporation (DAWH), the group intends to sell its entire holding of Dawood Fertilizer (DFL) of 100 million shares
  • ENI’s discovery in Badhra B North-1 exploratory well where OGDC has a 20% stake
  • PkR10/bag-PkR15/bag reduction in cement prices in the North
  • Expectations over pending results for NML and NCL may lead to volumes in these scrips while release of Fertilizer offtake numbers may generate some activity in Fertilizer sector scrips
  • Banks have underperformed the KSE-100 Index by 6% since Aug 10’12 when the Discount Rate was cut by 150bps to 10.5%
  • The government increased the prices of petrol by PRs6.82/litre to PRs106.7 and of CNG by PRs6.32/kg to PRs97.7 in its latest weekly price revision effective September 17. And it is expected to increase the petrol prices further in next week
  • Urea producers also underwent a test of pricing power as FFC reduced urea and DAP prices by PRs10/bag and PRs100/bag respectively to partially pass on the impact of reduction in cess on fuel gas and to expedite the clearance of inventories
  • US announced a multi‐year Pakistan Private Investment Initiative worth US$ 80 million in financial support to promote economic activities in the country
  • Floods caused by hill torrents this month swept across 300,000 cotton acres in DG Khan, Rajanpur and Rojhan areas
  • GoP officials showed that crops sown nearly 2mn acres had been destroyed or damaged. According to Agriculture experts, floods have caused damages worth PRS 250 billion
  • FBR has levied 0.5% capital gains tax on transfer of all plots sold by individuals or estate agents during the last two years
  • 9th generation Civic was introduced with enhanced aerodynamics, elegant simplicity of exterior design and enriched ergonomically designed sophisticated interior. It brings with it an armory of innovative features
  • Al‐Qarnain Group of Saudi Arabia is planning to invest US$ 1 billion in the areas of energy, construction, hospitality and automobiles in Pakistan over the medium term

IGI Insurance, Packages Limited, Dawood Corp, Pak Cables, PSMC, FATIMA, AGTL, EFOODS, Mari Gas, Pak Reinsurance, SILKBANK, NIB Bank, and NIB Bank were the major gainers while Grays Of Cambridge, Media Times Limited, K.E.S.C., Abbot Laboratories, LUCK, ABL, DGKC, NML, INDU, Millat Tractors, Fauji Cement, P.I.A.C.(A), and Pace (Pak) Ltd were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top ten volume leaders were: NCPL, PACE, KAPCO, FCCL, FATIMA, JDWS, EFOODS, ENGRO, FFBL, DAWH.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Companies Results 19 Sep

Pakistan Paper Products (PPP)
Profit/Loss (million): 56.51
EPS: 5.16
Bonus/Dividend: 20%B

Shifa International Hospital (SHFA)
Profit/Loss (million): 56.071
EPS: 5.16
Bonus/Dividend: 15%

Fauji Cement (FCCL)
Profit/Loss (million): 400.148
EPS: 0.40
Bonus/Dividend: NIL

Attock Petroleum Limited (APL)
Profit/Loss (million): 973.210
EPS: 59.61
Bonus/Dividend: 325%

Pakistan Oil Fields (POL)
Profit/Loss (million): 2523.94
EPS: 50.11
Bonus/Dividend: 350%

Sitara Chemicals (SITC)
Profit/Loss (million): 226.933
EPS: 32.13
Bonus/Dividend: 80%

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 15 September, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market has witnessed a bullish trend. KSE – 100 index has reached 15,450 points by gaining 196 points or 1.3 percent. While the KSE 30-share index has reached on 13,073.12 points by increment of 39 points or 0.30 percent. Please note that KSE – 100 index has reached highest level since last 53 months after April, 2008.

KSE – 100 index has gained with average daily volumes of 164 million shares. Foreign interest was intact as foreigners were net buyers of US$ 2.7 million. Trading activity was yet again dominated by the Telecom sector on the back of ICH-related euphoria.

The Karachi Stock Exchange’s (KSE) benchmark 100-index is expected go well above the 15,500 points level successfully next week as foreign investors are likely to invest more funds at the bourse after the US Federal Reserve announced a stimulus package for its economy.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) has cut 150 bps in export finance scheme rates to provide some relief to export oriented sectors. This bodes well for the textile sector, where we hiked FY13 EPS for NCL by 12% and NML by 3%. NML and NCL this week outperformed the market by 6.0% and 3.7%, respectively
  • EU will import (approval by EU parliament of the Autonomous Trade Preferences - ATP package) more duty free products from Pakistan. It would be applicable on 75 types of goods and largely comprising of textile products
  • Fed’s decision to launch a third aggressive stimulus program to rescue the US economy. And the announcement of QE3 by the US Fed yesterday cheered global equity markets with positive momentum likely to continue in the next week 
  • Pakistan’s trade deficit declined by 0.44 percent on year-on-year in two months of ongoing fiscal year 2013
  • With ICH (International Clearing House) agreement signed, which is going to be implementing the International Incoming calls for long distance, fixed‐line local loops, and wireless local loops in October, 2012. PTC seems to be having a substantial improvement in earnings outlook. The one way move of PTC was finally stopped after the company announced its financial results with no cash payout
  • Government of Pakistan has finally approved the issuance of PPTFCs of PKR 82 billion by PHPL. OGDC has subscribed to the above TFCs to settle its overdue receivables from oil refineries and gas companies
  • OGDC has gained Rs. 8.34 per share or 4.8 percent. Which has added approximately 181 points on index
  • BOD meeting of POL, APL and NML is expected on 15 September. And nice results, earnings are expected
  • EFOODS and HUBCO performance can be attributed to profit booking by investors
  • Banking sector seems to be impacted by cut in discount rate in the recent past and raise in minimum deposit return
  • Moody’s Investor Service maintained negative outlook on Pakistan’s banking system mainly due to heavy placement in GoP owned securities. Resultantly, the banking sector underperformed the market by 2.0%WoW 
  • Finally FBR issued an SRO in relation with CGT where NCCPL will debit the respective investors for their due share of CGT by September 18, 2012. Investors are likely to feel the pinch of CGT for the first time after the announcement of automated CGT regime
  • According to SNGPL, Punjab will face the brunt of gas shortage during this winter season as the demand for gas demand will rise to an unprecedented level
  • SECP (Securities Exchange Commission of Pakistan) has proposed the merger of ISE and LSE
  • E&P sector is also likely to be in the limelight in the coming week on higher oil prices
  • Government of Pakistan has increased the price of HSD by PKR3.39/litre, kerosene oil by PKR1.85/litre, HOBC by PKR3.27/litre and LSD by 87 paisa/ litre as well as it reduced the prices of petrol by PKR4.65/litre and CNG in the range of PKR3.89‐4.27/kg
  • Government of Pakistan determined to steer Pakistan Steel Mills to profitability and expansion with a concrete technical and financial plan. So that the proposal can be taken up during the forthcoming visit of Vladimir Putin
  • Pakistan and Russia are expected to sign agreements on currency swap and opening of bank branches during the Putin's visit to Pakistan
  • If there is a breakthrough, Pakistan and Russia could sign a deal to award IP gas pipeline project to Russian energy giant Gazprom during the upcoming visit of Russia President
  • Chinese Premier reiterated the stance of his government of supporting the sovereignty and integrity of Pakistan when he met Prime Minister Ashraf here on the sidelines of World Economic Forum's
  • Russia has also been requested to invest in a 500MW power project (on coal) at Jamshoro at an estimated cost of US$ 700 million
  • ADB (Asian Development Bank) will provide loan of US$ 433 millions to Pakistan for Guddu, Jamshoro thermal plants to be run on coal
  • Japan has agreed to provide machinery and equipment worth US$ 4 billion for the Diamer Bhasha Dam. Japan had agreed to cooperate in extending the power generation capacity of the Mangla dam
  • Sales of locally produced cars fell by 28.2% to 18,325 units in 2MFY13 as compared to 25,553 units in the same period of last fiscal year. The huge influx of used cars is not only hurting the local automobile industry but also causing substantial losses to the national exchequer
  • Cement exports have been increased by 18.23% as about 545,125 metric tonnes cement worth US$ 46.197 million exported during the month of July, 2012

P.I.A.C. (A), Pak Cables, K.E.S.C., NetSol Technologies, Media Times Limited, Siemens Pak, PACE Pak, NIB Bank, Nishat Mills, Nishat (Chunian) Ltd., OGDC, Lafarge Pakistan Cement Ltd., Maple Leaf Cement, Indus Motor Company Ltd., Allied Bank Ltd., Sui Southern Gas, PSO, Kot Addu Power and Thal Ltd. were the major gainers.

While Ghani Glass, PICIC Growth Fund, Shell Pakistan, P.T.C.L., Engro Polymer, Al-Ghazi Tractors, Engro Foods, International Steels, Bestway Cement, and HUBCO were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this Week.

Top ten volume leaders were: PACE, KAPCO, PKGS, DAWH, NPL, JDWS, ENGRO, HUBCO, SSGC and EFOODS.

Next week also plays host to resumption in the government judiciary tussle as the NRO hearing is scheduled for 18th Sep and ongoing discussions for finalizing caretaker setup will keep the noise factor elevated.

The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) issued the much‐awaited CGT Rules on Securities’ Trading on 12th Sep, incorporating all amendments proposed by the SECP aimed at facilitating the investors. The SECP had recommended certain changes in the CGT rules for documentary trail of undocumented income, correction of anomaly where exempted gains in past were not documented, improving depth in trading volumes, higher possibility for privatization and attraction of foreign portfolio investment. After approval of rules, the CGT regime has reportedly become effective.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Companies Results Sep 12 Update

Kohat Cement (KOHC)
Profit/Loss(in million): 661.811
EPS: 12.90
Bonus/Div: 30%

Dynea Pakistan Ltd (DYNO)
Profit/Loss(in million): 22.458
EPS: 5.45
Bonus/Div: 30%

Pakistan Telecommunication Company (PTC)
Profit/Loss(in million): 2958
EPS: 1.41
Bonus/Div: NIL

D.G.Khan Cement (DGKC)
Profit/Loss(in million): 2032.86
EPS: 9.38
Bonus/Div: 15%

Ittehad Chemical (ICL)
Profit/Loss(in million): 128.160
EPS: 3.57
Bonus/Div: 15%

Sheild Corporation Limited (SCL)
Profit/Loss(in million): 5.187
EPS: 9.60
Bonus/Div: NIL

National Food Limited (NATF)
Profit/Loss(in million): 147.123
EPS: 14.07
Bonus/Div: 60% 

Ferozons Labortories Limited (FEROZ)
Profit/Loss(in million): 144.153
EPS: 14.20
Bonus/Div: 45%, 5%B

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 8 September, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market has witnessed a bullish trend. KSE – 100 index has reached 15,254 points by losing 137 points or 0.9 percent. While the KSE 30-share index has reached on 13,034.11 points by declining 195.82 points or 1.48 percent. The expected correction in the last week has restricted the index for further upward movement. Currently the investors are cheerful and a little fearful as well, because of rampant bullish movement. Overall market remained under pressure as investors opted to book profits in blue chips after healthy gains of the prior week.

KSE index marked was geared up by the oil and gas sector initially, later it was the cement sector, and now it’s the telecom sector fueling the bullish energy.

“The KSE 100-share index will consolidate around 15,000 points level next week,” said Naeem Rafi, chief executive officer of Rafi Securities, adding that with the end of the corporate results season, the next week may invite some technical selling if the market would not get a fresh buying trigger.

Average daily traded volumes were also lower by 21.9% WoW at 195.4mn shares. There was a marked slowdown in foreign inflows with cumulative FIPI of US$ 0.25 million compared with last week’s net inflow of US$ 7.7 million.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • PTA’s approval for formation of ICH and ECC notifying de‐regulation of HSD prices were some of the important developments this week
  • Other major highlights during the week included, finalisation of the fiscal deficit figure by the Ministry of Finance, decline in Treasury bills yields and release of cement sales numbers by the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) 
  • Political atmosphere would get charged again once the NRO case resumes on September 18 
  • The banking sector lagged behind the rest of the market largely due to reduction in banking spread and the inflation numbers
  • Pakistan-IMF meetings are scheduled towards the end of the month on post-programme monitoring, whereby the fund will conduct its internal assessment on the Pakistan’s repayment capacity 
  • Analysts are expected 50 bps cut in basic interest rate once again, as reflected in the last T-bill auction
  • ENGRO and SHEL Pakistan have came back after kissing the much lowest levels
  • SHEL Pakistan has increased +14.7% during the week on increase in margins on HSD post deregulation of HSD import parity pricing
  • Establishment of ICH continued to boost investor confidence in telecom stocks including PTC, TELE and WTL
  • DGKC is scheduled to announce its financial results on 10 September, 2012. Nice earnings, EPS and dividend is expected because of better prevailing retention prices, reduction in financial cost, decline in long term debt and attrition in fuel & energy cost. In additional domestic demand in the northern part of the country improved by 8.4%YoY benefited the company due to it presence in the region
  • Dera Ghazi Khan Cement (DGKC) and Lucky Cement underperformed the market by 3.5 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively on the back of weak cement sales figures in August (down 18.6 percent on monthly basis) 
  • PTC and POL are also schedule to announce results in next week and after these announcements, results season would virtually get over. These results may drive the market in positive direction
  • Government has reduced the age limit of used cars import from 5 to 4 years. Which has boosted the local auto sector scrips e.g. HCAR and INDU
  • Government of Pakistan has decided to seek financing from China for the mega US$ 13 billion Bhasha Dam with power production capacity of 4,500 MW and also take loans from domestic banks by offering guarantees
  • National Assembly was informed that work on Iran‐Pakistan gas pipeline project is expected to start by December this year, while gas flow would be available by the end of December 2014
  • OGDCL has discovered a new hydrocarbon‐bearing horizon from its appraisal well Nashpa‐III, located in District Karak. Reportedly, the company found two new producing formations with combined production of 3,165bpd of oil and 15mmcfd of gas. Nashpa III would have PRs0.53/sh and PRs0.81/sh impact on OGDC (56% stake) and PPL (26% stake) respectively
  • The closure of 5‐fertilizer plants in the country owing to gas curtailment has resulted in a huge shortfall of 0.654mn tones urea and the shortage is going to be fulfilled through imports
  • FFC has completed the country’s first Wind Energy Farm at Jhimpir, district Thatta. FFC has assured its complete and withstanding commitment to the uplift and wellbeing of underprivileged communities around the project. 50 MW wind energy farm has been completed in a record time 

Grays Of Cambridge, NetSol Technologies, Shifa Int Hospitals Ltd, Shell Pakistan, Indus Motors, Unilever Pakistan, International Steels, Pak Tobacco, Media Times and P.T.C.L. were the major gainers while Atlas Honda, P.I.A.C. (A), National Refinery, Philip Morris Pak Ltd (LAKST), Packages Ltd., Abbot Labortories, Pakistan Cables, Allied Bank, FFBL, Agritech Ltd., and NIB Bank were major losers in the benchmark KSE-100 this week.

Top ten volume leaders were: ABOT, AICL, AGL, AGTL, ABL, AHCL, AKBL, ATLH, ACPL, APL.

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Companies Result Sep 04, 2012

Bolan Casting (BCL)
Profit/loss(million): 57.075
EPS: 4.40
Div/Bonus: 20%

Netsol Technologies Ltd (NETSOL)
Profit/loss(million): 596.012
EPS: 11.83
Div/Bonus: NIL

Pak Elecktron Ltd (PEL)
Profit/loss(million): 106.024
EPS: (2.22)
Div/Bonus: NIL

Bankislami Pakistan Ltd (BIPL)
Profit/loss(million): 137.598
EPS: 0.43
Div/Bonus: NIL

Jahanger Siddique Ltd (JSCL)
Profit/loss(million): 32.622
EPS: 0.55
Div/Bonus: NIL

General Tyre and Rubber Co (GTYR)
Profit/loss(million): 172.140
EPS: 3.39
Div/Bonus: 20%

Singer Pakistan (SING)
Profit/loss(million): 18.178
EPS: 0.54
Div/Bonus: 40% R

Adamjee Insurance (AICL)
Profit/loss(million): 127.414
EPS: 3.40
Div/Bonus: 15%