Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 25 March, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was range bound and market has witnessed a slight decline. KSE – 100 index has reached 13,273 points by losing of 24 points or 0.18 percent. With average daily volumes dropping 38%.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • WB (World Bank) has approved funds of US$1.02 billion for energy and irrigation system
  • FPI inflow of US$3mn did not alter market dynamics significantly where we believe that sentiments are now centred on the upcoming CGT relief package
  • Re‐opening of NATO supply routes was recently debated and we expect to see a firm decision in this regard soon
  • The verdict on the PM-related issue continued to be held during the week, which kept investors on the sideline
  • Cotton production has increased by 25% to 14.55mn bales
  • Weekly FPI adds USD5.2mn in Pakistan stock market
  • Govt is likely to raise profit rates on various products of NSS
  • Power tariffs of 21% raised by NEPRA as fuel adjustments account
  • SNGPL has cut off gas supply of ENGRO for a brief period
  • SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) allows Banks, DFIs to provide financing to dairy sector
  • SBP has released second quarterly report in which better performance by agriculture and services sectors (particularly Banks) as well as a relatively controlled FY12F inflation at 11%-12% were highlighted
  • National Savings Scheme may increase profit rates
  • Government raised PRs57.3bn in T‐bill auction
  • Auto sales for the month of Feb-12 exhibited an increase of 13.5% YoY while sequentially there was a marginal increase of 1%

Ibrahim Fibers, Engro Polymer, TRG Pakistan, Javedan Corporation, E.F.U. General Insurance, MEBL, EFOODS, and DGKC were the major gainers while NBP, AKBL, ABL, BAFL, Pakistan Tobacco Company, Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim, Packages Limited, Faysal Bank and Pak Cables were major losers last week.

In the upcoming week Fertilizers are likely to remain under pressure as 1QCY12 result outlook remains subdued owing to low off take while Cements are likely to continue with their strong performance owing to improved margins and possible M&A noise. Moreover, the Oil sector has remained a laggard in the current rally but is due for some outperformance as global rise in oil prices boosts profitability.

According to experts top picks for the coming week are: DGKC, LUCKY, PTC, FCCL, FFC, FFBL, ENGRO, OGDC, APL, PSO, HUBCO, NCPL, POL, and PPL.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 18 March, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was range bound with corrective spells in last week. KSE – 100 index has reached 13,297 points by losing of 56 points or 0.4 percent. Investors’ confidence remained intact as daily average volume stood at 400mn shares compared to 355 mn shares last week, increasing by 12.7% WoW.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:
  • With the net selling by foreigners during last two days of the week, FIPI witnessed an inflow of USD 1.6mn during the week as compare to inflow of USD 7.5mn in the previous week
  • Higher oil prices and better foreign remittances figures fuelled. Oil sector circular debt stands ~PKR397bn
  • Tax collection increases by 28% YoY in 8MFY12 – FBR
  • ECC approved increase in imported urea prices
  • LSM growth rises to 1.26% in Jul‐Jan12
  • Remittances: Immunity should be restricted to family members
  • Government conducted PIB auction during the week in which PKR 25bn were raised against maturity of PKR 28bn, with upward shift in yield curve
  • There were also few positives vibes for banking sector related to increased penetration from branchless banking (growing 15%YoY during 2QFY11) and recovery of overall NPLs of banks and DFI
  • Budgetary borrowing from banks reached PKR 914bn
  • Trade deficit surges USD14.6bn in 8MFY12, 41.2% up YoY
  • Rabi crops to face 50% water shortage this year
  • Fertilizer sector remained under pressure due to reports of urea offtake witnessing a decline in February

SSGC, SNGP, PSMC, K.E.S.C., Jahangir Siddiqui & Co, Grays Of Cambridge, Soneri Bank and P.I.A.C. (A) were the major gainers while AICL, NBP, Media Times Limited, E.F.U. Life Assurance, IGI Insurance, Engro Polymer and East West Insurance were major losers at KSE last week. JSCL, NIB, TRG, LPCL and FCCL were the volume leaders last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Companies Results (March 17 Update)

ICI Pakistan
Profit/Loss (million): 392.81
EPS: 13.95
Bonus/Dividend: 55%

EFU Life Assurance
Profit/Loss (million): 131.73
EPS: 6.81
Bonus/Dividend: 50%

EFU General Ins.
Profit/Loss (million): 251.24
EPS: 6.81
Bonus/Dividend: 27.50%

Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd
Profit/Loss (million): 2440
EPS: 2.06
Bonus/Dividend: 15%

Glaxosmithkline
Profit/Loss (million): 162.7
EPS: 4.77
Bonus/Dividend: 40%, 10%B

ATLAS INSURANCE LTD.(FORMERLY MUSLIM INSURANCE)
Profit/Loss (million): 95.20
EPS: 6.80
Bonus/Dividend: 40%, 20%B

Shell Pakistan
Profit/Loss (million): (215.73)
EPS: 13.23
Bonus/Dividend: 25%B

Bank of Khyber
Profit/Loss (million): (354.27)
EPS: 1.06
Bonus/Dividend: NIL

National Bank of Pakistan(NBP)
Profit/Loss (million): 6155.48
EPS: 10.47
Bonus/Dividend: 75%, 10%B

Standard Charted Bank
Profit/Loss (million): 1703.5
EPS: 1.41
Bonus/Dividend: 10%

Pakistan Gum & Chemical
Profit/Loss (million): 69.28
EPS: 30.12
Bonus/Dividend: 80%

Bank Alfalah Limited
Profit/Loss (million): 499.188
EPS: 2.60
Bonus/Dividend: 17.50%

Dawood Lawrencepure Ltd
Profit/Loss (million): (28.24)
EPS: 0.32
Bonus/Dividend: 10%

Azgard Nine Limited
Profit/Loss (million): (1081.18)
EPS: (5.02)
Bonus/Dividend: NIL

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
Profit/Loss (million): 3605.66
EPS: 11.53
Bonus/Dividend: 35%

Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL)
Profit/Loss (million): 10226.77
EPS: 15.03
Bonus/Dividend: 50%

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR)
Profit/Loss (million): (115.63)
EPS: (1.00)
Bonus/Dividend: NIL

Engro Foods Limited
Profit/Loss (million): 478.72
EPS: 1.20
Bonus/Dividend: NIL

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 12 March, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was bullish in last week and positivity remained continuous and KSE – 100. KSE – 100 index has reached 13,353 points by gaining of 262 points or 2.0 per cent. The KSE-30 Index rose to 12,117.94 points. Please note that it is the highest level achieved since last 46 months. It has generated six-year high volumes of above 550 million shares on Friday, ahead of implementation of reformed CGT.

The session volumes at 552.79 million shares were 54 percent higher than 358.17 million shares traded in the previous session. Volumes in the futures market also improved to 15.10 million shares from 12.95 million shares traded a day earlier.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Investors’ expectation for reformed CGT regime implementation from April 1, higher global commodities and stocks, and easing circular debt concerns in the power sector after expectations of increase in DISCOs electricity tariff kept activities at the KSE on the higher side
  • The major activity was seen in low-priced stocks such as NIB Bank, TRG Pakistan, Fauji Cement, Lafarge Pakistan and Fatima Fertilizer. And these low priced stocks have fetched 40 percent total volume
  • Other notable stocks which had drive market to positive direction are MCB Bank Limited, United Bank Limited, National Bank, Bank Alfalah, Silkbank, Oil and Gas Development Company, Fatima Fertilizer and Jahangir Siddiqui and Company
  • The market capitalisation improved by Rs24 billion to Rs3,472 billion. Out of the total 367 companies’ stocks traded, 205 advanced, 108 declined and 54 closed unchanged
  • SNGPL restores gas supply to Engro and Pak Arab Fertilizer
  • India bans cotton exports
  • PTA postpones 3G license auction
  • S&P in its recently released report kept Pakistan’s rating unchanged at ‘B-’ with a stable outlook
  • Much awaited result of NBP was announced this week. The bank reported an EPS of Rs10.47 in 2011 versus Rs10.44 recorded last year. Also, the bank announced a final dividend of Rs7.5 per share and a bonus issue of 10% which was above the consensus estimates. Consequently, the stock outperformed the market by 3.9%
  • Furthermore, the cement sector outperformed the market on strong earnings outlook

NIB Bank, Jahangir Siddiqui & Co, TRG Pakistan, Pace (Pak) Ltd and Bestway Cement were the major gainers while E.F.U. General Insurance, Pak Services, Pakistan Petroleum, E.F.U. Life Assurance and Ghani Glass were major losers at KSE last week. TRG Pakistan was the second volume leader with a turnover of 44.89 million shares as it closed at Rs3.62 with a loss of three paisas followed by Fauji Cement with a turnover of 34.70 million shares as it closed at Rs5.52 with a gain of three paisas.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 5 March, 2012

In the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market bulls were seen dominating last week. KSE – 100 index has crossed the psychological level of 13,000 points. KSE – 100 index has reached 13,089 points by gaining of 382.45 points or 3.01 per cent, which is the highest level achieved since June 2008. Please note that after this increment, the index has increased by 1,741.31 points, or 15.34 percent, to date since the beginning of calendar year 2012.

Although avg. daily turnover was down 11%WoW to 213mn, activity was still relatively healthy with volumes being topped by JSCL, FCCL and DGKC.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Investor’s confidence have skyrocketed because of healthy corporate results and on development of CGT (Capital Gain Tax) related issues
  • Amid IMF repayment of $399 million and rising oil prices in the international market have also played important role in the movement of market
  • TRCG forms Implementation Group
  • SBP warns rating downgrade risk on stopping cash injection
  • Fiscal deficit rises to PRs532bn for 1HFY12
  • Gas supply to ENGRO will be restored from 4th March, 2012 and there are expectations of possible urea price cut in the upcoming week. These news also have dragged FFC
  • Chairman FBR (Federal Board of Revenue) says there will be no new tax in FY13 budget.
  • FBR to reduce corporate tax rate gradually from 35% to 30%
  • Top performing stocks continued to be dominated by the banking & cement sector scrips and in this regard UBL (+12.5%), MEBL (+10.1%) and DGKC (+9.5%) continued to gain on good result announcements and a healthy outlook.
  • Key economic announcement during the week included the CPI for Feb’12 which came in at 1.05%YoY/0.3%MoM
  • In next week result season will come to an end, two key results are expected in next week i.e. FATIMA & NBP
  • Iran has further shown interests in bilateral trade relationships with Pakistan and offered oil on concessionary terms with barter arrangements.
  • US has showed its reservations regarding Pakistan – Iran gas pipeline project
  • According to NCCPL, foreign portfolio investors have injected US$ 5.6 million in this week
  • Cement export prices up US$12/ton to US$50/ton for Afghans
  • Construction and materials sector outperformed the broader market by 21 percent on weekly basis, supported by strong earnings outlook of the cement companies due to improved margins
  • Power Tariff increased by 39% to Rs3.03/unit
  • The government has also increased the prices of petroleum products (up to Rs 8.67 per litre), compressed natural gas (up Rs 1.77 per kilograms) during the week
  • Pak rupee also plunged to its all-time low level of Rs 91 against the dollar

Nestle Pakistan, E.F.U. General Insurance, Bestway Cement, Pak. Int. Cont. Ter. Ltd., Indus Dyeing and Feroze1888 were the major gainers while Unilever foods, Bata Pakistan, Soneri Bank, Jahangir Siddiqui & Co, P.I.A.C. (A) and Faysal Bank were major losers at KSE last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram