Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 26 February, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was bullish in last week and positivity remained continuous and KSE – 100 index has crossed the psychological level of 12,700 points which is the highest level achieved since last 10 months. KSE – 100 index has reached 12,707 points by gaining of 257 points or 1.69 per cent. According to experts KSE – 100 index will reach 13,000 points level soon.

Volumes were also better and reached up to 322 million shares which is the highest level achieved since last 22 months. Average traded volumes during the week stood at 240mn shares (up 37% WoW), while average traded value went up by 45% to USD72mn.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • KSE market has witnessed positive activities because of strong result season
  • Rising of oil and fertilizer prices have also played important role in the movement of KSE index. International oil prices (Arab Light) crossed US$120 per barrel again
  • NDFC (National Fertilizer Development Centre) released urea offtake figures for Jan-12, which showed a massive growth in urea of 55% YoY, while DAP offtake was lower by 51%YoY
  • Engro has reduced DAP prices by PRs310/bag to PRs3750/bag
  • Government of Pakistan has finalized the loan – swap deal of 150 billion for energy sector
  • Pakistani Rupee stayed firm against US$ regardless of IMF (International Monetary Fund) repayment of US$417 million
  • Agri credit by banks up 20%YoY to Rs149.7bn in 7MFY12
  • Investors have serious concerns over swelling country’s current account deficit and ever rising government borrowings
  • Government decides to borrow US$600mn from IDB
  • Foreign investors also placed funds worth USD1.6mn during the week as compared to a net outflow of USD 0.84mn recorded in the previous week
  • POL prices likely to go up by Rs2-7/litre
  • Current account deficit surges to USD2.63bn YoY during 7MFY12
  • Govt slashed public sector development projects worth Rs199bn
  • PTA likely to delay auction of 3G licences
  • Government has also proposed Radio tax on mobile usage and cars

TRG Pakistan, Pace (Pak) Ltd, K.E.S.C., Soneri Bank and Engro Polymer, MTL and BAFL were the major gainers while Pak Telephone, Nishat Power Ltd., P.T.C.L., Grays of Cambridge and Lotte Pakistan PTA, and MCB were major losers at KSE last week. Volume leaders this week included JSCL, ANL, DGKC, BAFL and BOP.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 19 February, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was bullish in last week. KSE – 100 index has reached 12,450 points by gaining of 264 points or 2.2 per cent with average daily volumes edging higher by 3.21% WoW to 175.05 million shares. While the KSE 30 Index gained 99.61 points, or 0.86 percent, to end at 11,671.63 points. Shares of 340 companies were traded, out of which 138 advanced, 121 declined and 81 remained unchanged.

Shrugging off a status quo on monetary policy and a nominal FPI outflow, a buying spree was the tale of the bourse which was supplemented by healthy payouts from Kapco and Engro Corp. Higher global commodities, easing political outlook and expectations for official announcements on resolution of capital gains tax (CGT) issue at KSE also played a catalyst role in the prevailing of bullish sentiments

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Investors cheer on passage of the 20th Amendment Bill 2012 and strong corporate results (especially of ENGRO, ABL, AKBL and DGKC), these results have increased the confidence of local investors and of foreign investors as well
  • US proposes US$2.4bn aid to Pakistan
  • The WTO (World Trade Organization) General Council’s approved for the much awaited “Additional Autonomous Trade Preferences” package to Pakistan
  • Positivity came out after FBR officials visited stock market and CDC to review the CGT collection mechanism
  • Investors took it as a step towards realization of Finance Minister promises for equity market reforms
  • Meanwhile, discussions with India on MFN status and trilateral talks between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan also supported market activity as leading sectors landed in green.
  • Iran has agreed to extend trade with Pakistan to USD10bn and showed its interest to provide oil to Pakistan on deferred payments
  • Remittances up 38%MoM in Jan-12 to US$1.11 Billion
  • FDI down 41% to USD594mn in 7MFY12
  • Trade deficit mounts to USD 13.17bn in 7MFY12, up 38%YoY
  • LOTPTA USD 500mn expansion plan in jeopardy
  • Pakistan has been added to blacklist of money laundering
  • NFML raised urea prices to PRs1,600/bag
  • Car sales have been increased in Pakistan by 17% YoY
  • During the outgoing week, foreign investors were net sellers worth $800,000

E.F.U. General Insurance, Jahangir Siddiqui & Co, NetSol Technologies, Feroze1888 and Pakistan Reinsurance were the major gainers while Abbot Laboratories, Pak. Int. Cont. Ter. Ltd., Indus Dyeing, PICIC Growth Fund and Philip Morris Pak Ltd were major losers at KSE last week.

Highest volumes were witnessed in JSCL with a turnover of 30.603 million shares as it gained 24 paisas to end at Rs9.41 followed by DGKC with a turnover of 27.203 million shares as it lost 51 paisas to close at Rs25.16. Azgard Nine with a turnover of 23.660 million shares gained 59 paisas to finish at Rs6.72. The market capitalisation increased to Rs3.257 trillion from Rs3.23 trillion in the last trading session. The top five advancers were Nestle Pakistan, Colgate Palmolive, Millat Tractors, Fazal Textile and Pakistan Oilfields.

The top five decliners were Unilever Pakistan, Island Textile, Atlas Honda, Shahtaj Sugar and Pakistan International Container.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 12 February, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was bullish in last week, the benchmark KSE100 crossed the psychological level of 12,000pts and maintained (closed at 12,232pts, up 2.08% WoW). The week began with massive buying amid results season in full swing. KSE – 100 index has reached 12,231.60 points by gaining of 248.98 points or 2.07 per cent. While KSE – 30 index has reached 11,415.20 points by gaining of 157.12 points or 1.39 per cent. According to experts, the result season, unchanged discount rate, likely robust full-year financial results of banks, and foreign buying may take the market up by another 100-150 points in next week.

In its assessment report on Pakistan, IMF was critical of State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) accommodative monetary policy stance and insisted on more exchange rate flexibility. Moreover, IMF highlighted the fiscal vulnerabilities and believes that the government’s fiscal deficit target of 4.7 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) is highly optimistic and projects the deficit to reach 7 percent of GDP. Additionally, the fund expects the economy to grow at 3.4 percent and consumer price index inflation to average at 12 percent in the current fiscal year.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) has announced Monetary policy and maintained the discount rate unchanged at 12 per cent
  • Foreign investors have shown interest in various chips supported by improved Pak-US relations and expectations of early resolution of the circular debt issue
  • According to stats by NCCPL (National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited), foreign portfolio investors have poured another $5.96 million last week
  • Investors had already booked profit at the KSE after the SBP increased rate of interest of treasury bills last week and inflation bounced back in the doubt-digit in January
  • If Indictment of Prime Minister of Pakistan Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani in Supreme Court on 13 February, 2012 will lead for a big change in political setup, the KSE market could react negatively
  • An analyst at KASB Securities said he looked forward to finalisation of the Rs138-144 billion debt swap deal to settle a part of the circular debt in the power sector next week. “This should improve the fortunes of the energy chain.”
  • The average daily volumes improved by 85 percent to 170 million shares last week. Also, the market capitalisation surged by Rs69 billion to Rs3,185 billion
  • The two main results announced this week were Hubco and PSO. Hubco’s earnings were above street estimates as the company posted an earning per share (EPS) of Rs 2.59 in 1HFY12, up 5 percent on yearly basis. Along with the result, the company announced an interim cash dividend of Rs 3 per share. Conversely, PSO’s 1HFY12 result was below expectations, reporting an EPS of Rs 26.72, down 36 percent on yearly basis. Also, the company did not announce any cash payout
  • “Bullish sentiments reigned at the KSE amid speculations over upcoming corporate earnings announcements in blue chips - bank, fertilizer and oil scrips,” said Arif Habib Investments Ltd Director Ahsan Mehanti. staff report
  • Government considering 20% increase in PSDP
  • Qatar agrees to supply 3.5mn tons of LNG
  • Cement sales up 2% YoY in Jan‐12
  • Auto sales up 38% MoM in Jan-12 to 13k units
  • Government urea prices dropped by Rs400/bag in the local market

EFOODS, NBP, AKBL, UBL, SNGP, Bestway Cement, Pak. Int. Cont. Ter. Ltd., Silkbank Limited, Pak Telephone and Nishat Power Ltd. were the major gainers while PSO, AICL, NML, LOTPTA, EFCL, Grays Of Cambridge, Indus Dyeing, Attock Refinery, Engro Polymer and International Industries were major losers at KSE last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 4 February, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was sluggish and dull in last week. KSE – 100 index has reached 11,982 points by gaining of 22 points or 0.19 per cent. Despite strong corporate results, market index has moved meagrely. Average volumes however diminished to 92mn shares, down 37% WoW, while average traded value decreased by 30% to $52 million.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Supreme court has moved to initiate contempt proceedings against Prime Minister over non implementation of the NRO verdict. Which can increase the heat and friction in political fronts
  • Leading blue chips has announced exciting set of corporate results
  • WTO (World Trade Organization) has approved the trades packages for Pakistan, which can allow Pakistan tariff free exports of 75 products to European Union. It can boost the textile exports of Pakistan
  • Individuals allowed to act as financier in MTS
  • Decision to issue Rs160bn worth of TFCs to clear circular debt
  • Kuwait extends USD40mn for Neelum-Jehlum power project
  • CPI inflation jumps to double digit, clocks at 10.10% in Jan-12
  • Urea production falters by 5% YoY in CY11
  • Domestic debt crosses Rs7trn mark, up 28%YoY
  • FFC announced above expected earnings and stock dividend
  • Government has increased oil and gas prices up to new high levels
  • Faulty Compressors wreck Qadirpur field project
  • In upcoming week result announcements especially PSO, HUBCO etc. will trigger market in positive direction

Pak Telephone, Jahangir Siddiqui & Co, J.D.W Sugar, Indus Dyeing and Bestway Cement were the major gainers while International Industries, Silkbank Limited, IGI Insurance, P.I.A.C. (A) and K.E.S.C. were major losers at KSE last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram