Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 29 January, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was bullish in last week. KSE – 100 index has reached 11,960.22 points by gaining of 185.54 points or 2.83 per cent. KSE – 100 index has went beyond 12,000 points mark multiple times during the week. KSE market will likely to maintain its momentum because few nice results from blue chips e.g. banks and fertilisers are expected.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Issuance of SRO on relaxing rules for CGT (Capital Gain Tax) is awaited vehemently. SECP proposals accepted by Finance Ministry for capital market
  • Freeze of CGT’s rate at current levels and abolition of withholding tax on brokers’ income would be additional incentives to re-attract the gone investors
  • According to experts, hearings in supreme court e.g. Memo gate scandal, NRO etc. will not affect the movement of market in next week, unless the court announces a radical decision
  • The market will have an eye out for the CPI number for January as it will help shape market expectations on path of discount rate
  • During last week, average daily volumes jumped up by 67 percent to 145 million shares. The market capitalisation improved by Rs49 billion to Rs3,105 billion
  • Foreign portfolio investors again appear as net buyers of shares worth $7.38 million shares last week, according to National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited
  • US$1000 per NATO container fee on the cards
  • POL prices (Rs. 5 per litre) are expected to be increased
  • Investments in National Saving Scheme rise to Rs. 92 billion
  • LSM growth slows to 1.5% in July‐Nov
  • Around 133 E&P licenses granted for energy
  • 50% cut in taxes on diesel under consideration
  • Fiscal deficit likely to stay at 7% of GDP

Silkbank Limited, Agritech Limited, Engro Corporation, D.G. Khan Cement and Pak. Int. Cont. Ter. Ltd. were the major gainers while Pak Telephone, Lotte Pakistan PTA, Siemens Engineering, Philip Morris Pak Ltd and Dawood Hercules were major losers at KSE last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 22 January, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was bullish with record high trades in last week. KSE – 100 index has reached 11,774.68 points by gaining of 760.22 points or 6.9 per cent. The KSE 30-share index rose by 731.21 points, or 7.18 percent, to 10,907.45. Please note that it is highest weekly increment since last 146 weeks (since April 3, 2009). According to analyst KSE index will breach psychological level of 12,000 points in next week.

Hopes of good news regarding CGT issues supported the market while positive revision in Pakistan economic growth estimate to 4 percent, recovery in global stocks, foreign interest in blue chips and statement issued by White House on US, Pakistan to work together to reset ties played a catalyst role in the bullish sentiment at KSE.

Average daily volumes increased by 209 percent to 87 million shares last week from 28 million shares traded in the week earlier. The market capitalisation surged by Rs190 billion to Rs3,056 billion. The daily turnover increased 456.69 percent to close at 178.42 million shares as against 32.05 million shares of the previous week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • SECP (Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan) has sent a proposal to Ministry of Finance pertaining CGT (Capital Gain Tax), WHT (withholding tax) and disclosure of source of income, has increased the confidence of investors
  • Global economic crisis and political uncertainty has also failed to dampen investors confidence
  • The news about KSE regarding the visit of Finance Minister (Hafeez Sheikh) on last trading day of week, has also made a positive impact in KSE market’s movement
  • Foreign Portfolio Investors have offloaded shares of worth $3.7 million, according to NCCPL (National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited)
  • The Government of Pakistan has decided to settle circular debt of Rs. 150 billion by issuance of TFCs (Term Finance Certificates)
  • The raid by Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) at All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) office has made cement stocks under pressure
  • Banks and electricity sectors has underperformed the market by 2.8 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively
  • Political noise will shift down the gear and corporate results around the corner. Fundamental earnings would dictate movement of stock index next week

I.C.I Pakistan Ltd., Oil & Gas Dev.Co, Lafarge Pakistan Cement Ltd, Engro Corporation Limited, Engro Foods Ltd., Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim, Pakistan Telecommunication, Nishat Mills Ltd., National Refinery Ltd., Attock Refinery Ltd., Nishat (Chunian) Limited. were major gainers at KSE last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 15 January, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was bearish and faced a hefty fall during the week. KSE – 100 index has reached 11,014.46 points by losing of 110.89 points or 0.99 per cent. The average daily volumes fell by 33.4 percent to 28.1 million shares last week from 42 million traded in the week earlier. The market capitalisation fell by Rs27 billion to Rs2,866 billion.

Supreme court has already warns government of disqualifying Prime Minister and President. The movement of KSE in next week will depend on Supreme court hearing in NRO (National Reconciliation Ordinance) and memo commission will also resume its hearing. Electoral politics will also affect market in next week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Political noise over the memogate issue in supreme court and the Prime Minister’s statement on unconstitutional and illegal actions by the government functionaries have really hurt the sentiments of investors
  • Prime minister has also dismissed the defence secretary, which has created further friction between government and army
  • Pak Rupee is continuously depreciating
  • Gas shortfall in industries is also creating serious problems
  • On the macro front, swelling of trade deficit also dampened investor sentiment
  • Prime Minister has inaugurated Kunnar-Pasakhi Gas pipeline project, which has excited the investors up to some extent
  • Both FFC and FFBL raised urea prices this week, consequently outperforming the market by 5 percent and 4 percent, respectively
  • Corporate results season can also affect market and lead it to positive direction
  • The market may react positively if Federal Board of Revenue accepts the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan’s proposal of changing rules for capital gains tax regime as per stock brokers and investors’ wish
  • Cement sales up 4% during 1HFY12
  • Analysts have also recommended buying LUCKY cement and DGKC
  • Remittances increase 19% YoY in 1HFY12
  • Trade deficit widens 38% in 1HFY12
  • 100mmcfd gas added to system, gas crisis could end in 2013

Shifa Int Hospitals Ltd, TRG Pakistan, K.E.S.C., Colgate Palmolive and Jahangir Siddiqui & Co were the major gainers while Pak Telephone, Nestle Pakistan Limited, International Steel Limited, Dawood Hercules and Al‐Ghazi Tractors were major losers at KSE last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 1 January, 2012

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market has managed to close in green zone, because of easing political concerns and expectations of early resolution of CGT (Capital Gain Tax) issue. KSE – 100 index has reached 11,347.09 points by gaining of 47 points or 0.4 per cent. The daily turnover increased 104.31 percent to 62.56 million shares as compared to 30.62 million shares of the previous week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Institutions have supported market in oil sector, because of hike of oil prices in International market
  • Gas crisis are increasing in country, and government is considering for a month long closure of CNG stations and increasing CNG prices
  • Government of Pakistan has finalized rate hike of gas by 14 to 207 percent from January 2012
  • Foreign Portfolio Investors were mostly remain inactive because of Christmas and new year holidays
  • Memogate controversy and shortage of gas supply to manufacturing sector especially for Fertilizer sector, have really hurt the sentiments of investors
  • All fertilizer sales in November were down 11 percent, whereas both urea and DAP offtake dropped by 12 percent and 22 percent, respectively.
  • SECP (Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan) has amended rules of MTS (Margin Trading System) last week. And now SECP is going to meet FBR (Federal Board of Revenue) regarding relaxing rules of CGT
  • Majority of investors attributed the decline in KSE in 2011 to massive foreign selling. According to the National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited, foreigners sold net shares worth $127.21 million in the year 2011 against $526.37 million net buying in the previous calendar year 2010
  • World Bank plans up to $5.5 billion lending
  • Pak‐India talks on Confidence Building Measures
  • LSM growth up 2.07% YoY in 4MFY12
  • T‐bill Auction – Low participation drives rates higher
  • A landmark currency swap agreement between Pakistan and China
  • Urea and DAP sales down by 5% and 19%YoY respectively

AGTL, PTC, AICL, Media Times Limited, Nestle Pakistan Limited, Silkbank Limited, Siemens Engineering and International Industries were the major gainers while ENGRO, Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim, Shifa Int Hospitals Ltd, Arif Habib Corporation and Pak Suzuki Motors were major losers at KSE last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram