Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 25 December, 2011

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity was bullish. KSE – 100 index has reached 11,301.09 points by gaining of 272.95 points or 2.47 per cent. While KSE – 30 index has increased by 164.27 points or 1.61 percent and reached to 10,318.41 points. The increase was attributed mainly to strong rumours about relaxation of rules for Capital Gains Tax (CGT) at KSE.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Domestic politics have been eased after the arrival of Asif Ali Zardari
  • According to experts, KSE (Karachi Stock Exchange) will remain under pressure in upcoming week, because of the tensions created in political front by the memo case in supreme court
  • Investors are attracted because of strong annual results (particularly by fertilizer and banking sector) expectations
  • Net sale by foreigners stood at $8.9 million last week, showed official data
  • The average daily turnover increased by 1.4 percent to 45 million shares from 44 million in the previous week. The market capitalisation surged by Rs68 billion to Rs2,930 billion
  • Fatima Fertilizer and Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim outperformed the market by six percent and two percent, respectively, while both Fauji Fertilizer Company and Engro Corporation unperformed by one percent
  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) expects the economy to grow in the range of 3-4 percent in FY12. The reason highlighted by SBP for the expected underperformance is its bleak outlook on the agriculture sector
  • Mix reaction in fertilizer stocks was witnessed amid the uncertainty on gas related issues. Fatima and FFBL outperformed the market by 6 percent and 2 percent respectively, while both FFC and Engro unperformed by 1 percent
  • Gas supply has been cut off again, and urea prices are getting increased

Nestle Pakistan Limited, International Industries, Siemens Engineering, Dawood Hercules Corp. and E.F.U. Life Assurance were the major gainers while Jahangir Siddiqui & Co, Shifa Int Hospitals Ltd, Al‐Ghazi Tractors, Jubilee General Ins. Co Ltd and Ibrahim Fibers were major losers at KSE last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 18 December, 2011

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity was bearish. KSE – 100 index has reached the lowest value since last 16 weeks, 11,028.14 points by losing of 436.39 points or 3.80 per cent. And KSE – 30 index has reached 10,154.14 points by gaining of 500.34 points or 4.69 per cent. According to experts, KSE Stock market will remain under pressure of foreign selling but consolidate around 11,000 points next week. Uncertain Pak-US relations, rising political uncertainty and foreign selling at local bourse have played a catalyst role in negative sentiment at KSE.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Ayub said that Chief of the Army Staff General Kiyani’s statement on memo issue, terming it a reality and the absence of President Zardari from the country for medical reasons added misery to the gloomy politics and weak sentiments at the KSE
  • Value of Rupee against dollar is continuously declining, and inflation at around 12 percent causing the foreign portfolio investors to exit
  • According to the National Clearing Company of Pakistan, foreigners sold net shares worth $11.24 million at the local bourses last week
  • Foreign Portfolio investors have offloaded shares of Engro Corporation and MCB Bank, and they have bough Oil and Gas Development Company shares last week
  • Khurram Schezad, head of research at InvestCap, said that the Christmas holidays in the West might have provoked foreigners to quit from the Karachi bourse, as they did not want to carry heavy-risk during the holidays on memo issue and Pakistan-US relationship
  • The market capitalisation declined by Rs120 billion last week and stood at Rs2,862 billion. The average daily volume slightly enhanced to 44.3 million shares from 44.1 million shares last week
  • Furqan Ayub, an analyst at JS Research, reported that Pakistan Petroleum Limited and Pakistan Oilfields outperformed the market by three percent and one percent, respectively, on the expectations of production enhancements
  • Uncertainty on gas-related issues resulted in Engro Corporation and Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim to underperform the market by 10 percent and 11 percent, respectively
  • Auto sales up 19.6%YoY in 5MFY12
  • For auto-manufacturers, the week was a fore-bearer of increased regulatory risk ahead as the government imposed a ban on the import of CNG kits and cylinders
  • Trade deficit up 27% MoM to US$2.2bn in Nov‐11
  • US House‐Senate panel proposes conditions on US$700mn Pakistan aid
  • Remittances decline by 9% MoM in Nov‐11 at US$925mn
  • Forex reserves rise nominally to US$16.69bn
  • Refinery sales rise 10%MoM in Nov-11
  • Cement dispatches down 6.47%YoY in Nov-11

Feroze1888 Mills, Al‐Ghazi Tractors, Shifa Int Hospitals Ltd, Colgate Palmolive and Pak Cables were the major gainers while Pace (Pak) Ltd, TRG Pakistan, Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim, Engro Corporation and Silkbank Limited were major losers in the benchmark KSE‐100 last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 11 December, 2011

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity is increasing its momentum and succeeded to close in green zone. KSE – 100 index has reached 11,392.57 points by gaining of 92.40 points or 0.81 per cent. And KSE – 30 index has reached 10,650.48 points by gaining of 59.66 points or 0.56 per cent. According to experts, KSE Stock market will keep range bound next week, with stock specific activities in Fertilizer, energy and banking sector, but foreigners might continue to exit from the market. History of KSE (Karachi Stock Exchange) is showing that Karachi Stock Market use to perform well during the month of December. The average daily turnover improved by 18 percent to 44 million shares from 37 million traded in the previous week. The market capitalisation increased by Rs21 billion to Rs2,982 billion.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Political uncertainty was witnessed by the Asif Ali Zardari’s sudden trip to dubai
  • Investors have concerns about the issue of gas curtailment to fertilizer sector. If gas remains suspended the urea prices will definitely increased
  • FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investors) are continuously offloading their investments from Karachi Stock Market, which is adversely affected the performance of the Karachi Stock Exchange
  • According to the National Clearing Company of Pakistan, net sale by foreign portfolio investors stood at $4.84 million at local bourses last week. During the week, they bought shares worth $5.65 million and sold shares worth $10.49 million
  • CGT (Capital Gain Tax) collection rules and issues of minimum paid up capital requirement for brokerage houses have made investors nervous
  • US Dollar has reached its highest price and is trading on Rs. 89.10
  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves have been declined to $16.68 billion
  • Cotton production rise 15.5% YoY till date
  • Refineries plan USD9.9bn investment in near future
  • Domestic debt rises to Rs6.234tr till Oct-11
Packages Limited, NIB Bank, Pace (Pak) Ltd, Al‐Ghazi Tractors and Shifa Int Hospitals Ltd were the major gainers while Engro Corporation, Jahangir Siddiqui & Co, Silkbank Limited, Tri‐Pack Films and Dawood Hercules were major losers in the benchmark KSE‐100 last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 4 December, 2011

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity was bearish. KSE – 100 index has reached 11,372.21 points by losing of 275.93 points or 2.36 per cent. Please note that KSE – 100 index has lost 650 points during last three weeks. And KSE – 30 index has reached 10,594.82 points by losing of 337.18 points or 3.08 per cent. Whereas average volumes improved slightly to 37.1mn shares (+7.9% WoW).

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Local and Foreign investors have serious concerns over NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) air strikes. But Pak – US relations will improve eventually and will help in recovery of KSE
  • Political turmoil and noise was also witnessed as supreme court commenced hearing on controversial Memo-gate scandal
  • US senate voted to tie strings on future aid of Pakistan. But Finance Minister Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh clarified at a press conference on Saturday that US has not blocked any kind of financial aid to Pakistan, including military assistance
  • Law and Order situation in country during holidays (on the occasion of Ashura) will also play an important role for market direction
  • SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) has maintained its status quo on policy rate in November – 2011 MPS review. It will make banking stocks stable in next weeks
  • During month of October – 2011, Increase in Urea sales were recorded by 21% YoY, while DAP sales were down 47% YoY
  • Petroleum prices e.g. diesel and gasoline have been increased in range of 1-5%
  • Refineries seek withdrawal of turnover tax
  • Gas Development Levy of Rs. 197/mmbtu have bee proposed for fertilizer
  • The rupee has lost about 2.4 percent in last one month. It touched a record low of 89.01 to a dollar on Friday. Rupee depriciated 1.39% during the week
  • Foreign Portfolio Investors have offloaded shares of worth $2.3 million
  • Federal Bureau of Statistics released the consumer price index figures for Nov 2011, which rose by 10.19 percent from a year earlier
  • DGKC outperformed the market by 4.4 percent on the back of sustained high cement prices. Engro too outperformed the market by 1.3 percent (on a dividend adjusted basis) on restoration of gas supply to the company while FFC underperformed the benchmark index by 5.5 percent owing to cut in urea prices
  • Tax collection improved by 29%YoY in 1QFY12

Colgate Palmolive, Tandlianwala Sugar, Javedan Cement, Indus Dyeing and Agritech Limited were the major gainers while National Refinery, Nestle Pakistan Limited, Siemens Engineering, Shifa Int Hospitals Ltd and Soneri Bank were major losers last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram