Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 30 October, 2011

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity range bound but succeeded to close in green zone. Past week comprises of three consecutive bearish sessions and one extraordinary bullish session which manages to close the index where it began. KSE – 100 index has reached 11,561.57 points by gaining of 36.42 points or 0.31 per cent. The KSE 30-share index fell by 6.90 points, or 0.06 percent, to 10,895.09.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) is expected to make some gains during the next week owing to the availability of shares at attractive price, traders said on Saturday
  • European leaders and banks have reached a deal to tackle euro zone debt crisis and institutional accumulation in commodity stocks, which creates a bullish trend in global markets
  • Political uncertainty kept investors cautious and strained US-Pak relations coupled with the hawkish attitude of the opposition parties had initially overshadowed the healthy corporate results and positive sector news flow as investors booked profits throughout the week,” said JS Sec analyst Furqan Ayub
  • According to National Clearing Company of Pakistan, Foreigners offloaded shares worth $7.9 million
  • Cement sales have increased as compared to last year, up by 8.2% in 1QFY12
  • State Bank also issued a circular relaxing the forced sale provision criteria for banks which is expected to have a positive impact on the sector’s earnings
  • Bullish activity was witnessed in an oversold market led by oil and fertilizer stocks on strong valuations and record earning announcements this week, said Arif Habib Investment Ltd Director Ahsan Mehanti
  • Major earning announcements next week played a catalyst role in the positive sentiment at KSE despite concerns over rising political uncertainty and US call for unequivocal actions against militants
  • With blue chips such as Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC), Engro Corporation and Pakistan State Oil (PSO) to announce their results next week
  • The average weekly turnover fell by 14.3 percent to 75.3 million shares. The overall market capitalisation increased by three billion rupees to Rs3,021 billion
  • Both PPL and OGDC posted strong earning growth of 27 percent and 31 percent, respectively, in July-September 2011 quarter with OGDC surprising the market with 10 percent above-consensus earning per share
  • SECP approves 43 securities for short selling
  • ADB provides USD36mn for wind power
  • Foods export surge 38% in 3M
  • Petrol prices likely to fall by 5%

Standard Chartered Bank, Soneri Bank, Oil & Gas Development Co., Fatima Fertilizer Co Ltd and Indus Motors were the major gainers while Pace (Pak) Ltd, Ghani Glass, Colgate Palmolive, Shifa Int Hospitals Ltd and National Refinery were major losers at KSE this week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 16 October, 2011

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity was bullish consecutively for the fifth week. KSE – 100 index has reached 11,988.09 points by gaining of 134.25 points or 1.13 per cent. According to analysts KSE market is likely to cross the psychological level of 12,000 points in next week, if nothing big unexpected happen on the economic and political fronts.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Nice results are expected especially from Banking, Energy and Telecom sectors. Which will definitely drive the KSE market in positive direction
  • After the major cut down of discount rates, market is already entered in green zone. It caused the average volumes to improve by 66 percent to 125 million shares during the week
  • Important results from blue chips e.g. Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL), Attock Petroleum Limited (APL), Attock Refinery Limited, Habib Bank Limited (HBL) and Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTCL) etc. are scheduled in next week
  • According to JS Research forecasts, HBL may report an increase of 28 percent in its profits to Rs12.67 per share for January-September period
  • APL profits are likely to rise by 27 percent on yearly basis to Rs16.1 per share in the July-September quarter
  • A local brokerage house said the market would be watchful of movements in the foreign portfolio investment numbers. Foreign investment has been withdrawn over the past few weeks. Progress on Pak-US relations will be important for the market, it said
  • Increase in fertiliser prices caused a rally in Fatima Fertilizer, Fauji Fertilizer Company and Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim. These three outperformed the market by 14.8 percent, 8.8 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively
  • APL also outperformed the market by 11.6 percent as investors expected strong financial results of Attock group companies
  • High cement prices also prompted Lucky Cement to outperform the market by 7.1 percent
  • Banking stocks such as United Bank and National Bank underperformed the market by six percent and 8.3 percent, respectively, due to a decline in banking spreads after the cut in the discount rate

Arif Habib Corporation, Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd, Attock Petroleum Limited, Nishat Mills and Fauji Fertilizer were the major gainers while National Bank of Pakistan, TRG Pakistan, NIB Bank, Agritech Limited and Pak Services were major losers at KSE this week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 9 October, 2011

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity was bullish consecutively for the fourth week. KSE – 100 index has reached 11,853.84 points by gaining of 91.87 points or 0.78 per cent. According to analysts KSE market is likely to cross the psychological level of 12,000 points in next week, if nothing big unexpected happen on the economic and political fronts.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) has announced cut of 150 basis points in the discount rate to 12 per cent
  • Government’s patch up with the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and PML-Q
  • Improvement in the rupee’s value
  • Government has increased Oil prices
  • Listed companies in Cement, Fertilizer, Textile and Energy sector which were built, extending and or operating on bank’s loan will fuel the rally. Engro Fertilizer, DG khan cement, are two notable companies among those leverage companies
  • Inflation dropping to 10.46% in September provided the early impetus the market needed during the start of the week
  • Fertilizer manufacturers raised ex-factory urea prices by Rs 174 per bag owing to Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Ltd’s gas suspension to fertilizer producers due to reduced supply from Qadirpur
  • Cement manufacturers in the southern region have also increased prices by Rs15 to Rs400 per 50kg bag
  • Car prices are increased by auto makers (Indus Motors and Pakistan Suzuki)
  • The average volumes of the outgoing week dipped by 9.3 percent to 75.5 million shares. On the contrary, the overall market capitalisation improved by Rs23 billion during the week to Rs3,126 billion
  • Foreign investors, however, sold stocks worth $2.7 million this week against an outflow of $7.3 million last week
  • Fertiliser stocks were the star performers with Fauji Fertiliser Company increased by 5.27 percent on weekly basis, Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim was up by 2.86 percent and Fatima Fertiliser rose by 4.14 percent on week-on-week basis following Engro’s decision to hike urea price
  • DG Khan Cement rose by 9.8 percent on weekly basis and remained in the limelight due to excitement regarding the monetary policy and Bhasha Dam
  • The government reportedly decided to convert outstanding financing and accrued interest of public sector power companies and commodity financing into Pakistan Investment Bonds. Actually Government to convert PRs 400 billion loans into PIBs and T‐bills

Tandlianwala Sugar, Thal limited, D.G. Khan Cement, Feroze1888 and Askari Bank were the major gainers while Grays Of Cambridge, Indus Dyeing, Ghani Glass, Pace (Pak) Ltd and Media Times Limited were major losers at KSE this week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 2 October, 2011

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market activity was bullish. KSE – 100 index has reached 11,761.97 points by gaining of 151.11 points or 1.33 per cent. The reasons for investors to remain active were hopes of improvement in ties with the US, recovery in global commodities, highs in refineries margins, urea offtake hitting a record-high level and expectations of decline in the State Bank of Pakistan’s interest rate to be announced next week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • High geo‐political tensions revolving around Pak‐US relations were on display early in the week however the situation gradually improved, which combined with hopes of monetary easing allowed a return of investor participation and risk appetite
  • According to experts, The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) is likely to continue to rise in the coming week on expectations of discount rate cut, which will improve the dividend yield of many stocks and benefit leveraged listed firms. SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) is schedule to announce the monetary policy for next two months on 8 October, 2011
  • Aug‐11 Fertilizer Sales: urea up 84%, DAP up 53% YoY. Fatima Fertilizer, Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL), Fauji Fertilizer Company and Engro Corporation remained in the limelight as it was reported that urea production rose 11 percent in August
  • According to analysts, Attock Group companies could see a jump in value in the next few sessions as investors start trading shares ahead of dividends delivery. And Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) and Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) closely followed the fluctuation in international crude oil price. Any spike is sure to push up these stocks
  • Some of the listed companies are also expected to start announcing their July-September 2011 quarterly results from mid of October, raising hopes of another results-led rally
  • Senior KSE officials have maintained that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is due to review the capital gains tax (CGT) issue sometime in October
  • IMF (International Monetary Fund) team to arrive on Oct 10th for Article IV Consultation
  • PSO (Pakistan State Oil) seeks Rs50 billion urgent payment
  • Govt cut NSS rate by 80-96bps
  • Petrol, CNG prices likely to rise by Rs4/liter in Oct-11
  • FAO says 70% Sindh crops damaged due to floods
  • INDUS motor increases car prices by Rs30,000-50,000
Agritech Limited, Siemens Engineering, Dawood Hercules, Gharibwal Cement and Lafarge Pakistan Cement Ltd were the major gainers while PICIC Growth Fund, Grays Of Cambridge, P.I.A.C. (A), Indus Motors and Pace (Pak) Ltd were major losers at KSE this week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram