Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 29 August, 2010

As was expected, Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) performance was lacklustre and the trading trend was bearish during the week because of flood crisis, damage in exports and broader inflationary concerns. Market has recovered a little bit by the end of week, The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share index closed at 9,598.71 points by losing of 261.66 points or 2.9 percent. The meeting of IMF (International Monetary Fund) executives with Pakistan’s economic managers in Washington next week would be very important.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movement:
  • Local investors were very careful and cautious because of widespread flood crisis throughout the country.
  • Investors are uncertain about the meeting of IMF (International Monetary Fund) and Pakistan officials regarding power tariffs and GST (General Sales Tax)
  • The meeting has been cancelled, with KSE chairman to resolve the issues of Margin Trading System (MTS), and further delaying the product’s introduction
  • The corporate results announced last week of some blue chips i.e. PTCL, NBP, BAFL and FABL have really disappointed the sentiments of investors
  • As International oil prices are falling continuously, it has adversely affected PSO and POL
  • Exploration firms has cut down 50 percent drilling because of flood and Gas import plan has also threatened due the sanctions of Iran
  • Political turmoil and instability especially after the statements of MQM(Muttahida Qaumi Movement) leaders for calling army support against corrupt politicians
There is some positive news also which can affect Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) in upcoming weeks:
  • IMF is reconsidering its imposed conditionals and easing the terms of its $11 billion program. International Community is committing more aid on UN’s appeal for flood victims which has increased $800 million
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank (WB) are assisting Pakistan for reconstruction after the flood
  • As funds are continuously arriving from International donors, the value of Rupee has becoming strong as compare to dollar
  • Moody’s and S&P stated that the credit rating for Pakistan will not be affected immediately
  • The corporate results of ICI and Lotte Pakistan was very positive
  • Foreign Portfolio Investors are continuously showing interest especially in Banking and Oil & Gas sectors. They have invested $6.07 million during the week while it was $6.09 million in last week
POL, ENGRO, PSO, MCB, OGDC, Lotte Pakistan, Silk Bank, AHSL, DGKC were on top at KSE last week. Gharibwal Cement, Unilever Pakistan Foods, Sui South Gas, Bestway Cement and Jevedan Cement were major gainers while Adamjee Insurance, Pakistan Refinery, Indus Motor, EFU General Insurance, Shifa Int. Hospitals were major Losers at KSE last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 22 August, 2010

Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) performance was under limelight during the week. Market has recovered by the end of week, The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share index closed at 9,860.37 points by increment of 37 points or 0.4 percent. And it is expected that market will remain under pressure in upcoming week because of flood crisis, damage in exports and broader inflationary concerns.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movement:
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved loan of $2 Billion and world bank has redirected the loan of $900 million for the flood relief in Pakistan
  • Institutional support and foreign interest in Oil & Gas and Banking Sector has affected the movement of market positively.
  • Local investors were very careful and cautious because of widespread flood crisis throughout the country.
  • As funds are continuously arriving from International donors, the value of Rupee has becoming strong as compare to dollar
  • Some blue chips from banking, auto and telecom sectors are scheduled to announce their results in upcoming week.
  • Pakistan Investment Bond (PIB) auction came under limelight as the market was expecting a hike in yields, but the finance ministry scraped the entire auction instead.
MCB, OGDC, ENGRO, POL, NBP and ABL were on top at KSE last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 15 August, 2010

Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) has shown a lacklustre performance during the week. Bears were seen dominating market, The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share index closed at 9,823.37 points sheds 492 points or 4.8 percent.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movement:
  • Devastation caused by the floods in the country
  • The chairman of the Karachi Stock Exchange, Zubyr Soomro, expressed his dissatisfaction with the proposed margin financing product in a letter of dissent made public.
  • Disappointing results from some blue chips last week
  • Inflationary pressures are expected in near future because flood has totally destroyed crops and other valuable resources of country
  • World Bank to provide US$900bn for flood relief
  • Faysal bank to make tender offer for 0.63% shares of RBS
OGDC, ENGRO, MCB, POL, PPL, AHSL, HUBCO, JSCL, Lotte Pakistan were on top, Gharibwal Cement, Hub Power Company, Shifa Int. Hospital, Pakistan Tobacco and Habib Metropolitan Bank were major gainers while PIA, Netsol Technologies, Arif Habib Securities, Royal Bank and Azgard Nine were major losers at KSE this week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 8 August, 2010

Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) has shown dull and lacklustre performance and bearish trend was witnessed throughout the week. The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share index closed at 10,315.20 points by shedding of 203.82 points or 1.93 percent. While Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 30-share index closed at 10,244.91 points by shedding of 238.45 points or 2.27 percent.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movement:
  • As the corporate result season has arrived, with the implementation of margin trading system will recover the market
  • Some nice results are also expected in upcoming week e.g. OGDC, HUBCO, Lucky Cement, and ABL
  • Rise in International Crude Oil Prices and reaches $81 per barrel
  • Because of flood and weather conditions, and crisis in Lucky Cement Factory cement production and demands are affected. But because of flood reconstruction of affected areas is required, approval of Bhasha Dam, Export demands etc. cement demands will increase in country
  • Foreign Portfolio Investors have bought shares of worth $15 million during last week
Beside these positive news, there are some reasons for which we recommend investors to be careful
  • Increase in rate to 13 percent in Monetary Policy of SBP, have really hurt the sentiments of investors
  • Below then expected results have been announced e.g. PSO, HBL, MCB etc.
  • Target killing, Political disturbance, law and order situation and Flood in different parts of country has adversely affected the economy of country
  • Production from certain fields of Oil and Gas has been suspended due to flood
OGDC, ENGRO, POL, MCB, and PPL were on top, Rafhan Maize, Pakistan Telephone, Pakistan Services, International Industries and Engro Polymer were major gainers while Gharibwal Cement, Jahangir Siddiqui & Co., Bestway Cement, KASB Bank and WorldCall Telecom were major losers at KSE last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 1 August, 2010

Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) has performed very well last week and witnessed a bullish trend last week and crossed the psychological level of 10,500 points. The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share index closed at 10,519 points by increment of 223 points or 2.2 percent. But the upcoming week especially Monday is expected to be under pressure, because State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has announced its Monetary Policy and increased 50 basis point in discount rate and led it to 13 percent.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movement:
  • As the corporate result season has arrived, with the implementation of margin trading system will recover the market
  • Decent results have been announced last week e.g. HBL, FFC, FFBL, ENGRO
  • Fertilizer sector have announced nice results, because urea and DAP prices were increased, which led them to better then expected earnings
  • Lapse of 15 percent regulatory duty on export of yarn have created an interest of investors in textile sector
  • There is rumour that PSO will receive Rs. 15 Billion from ministry of Finance, and better results of PSO are also expected. That’s why investors are showing interest in PSO also
  • Foreign investors have also invested $12.68 million
  • Foreign minister have assured the dispatch of $3 billion from Friends of Democratic Pakistan
  • Acquisition of RBS by FABL is finalized
  • Manzalai field oil production increase to 4,800 bpd
Beside these positive news, there are some reasons for which we recommend investors to be careful
  • Increase in rate to 13 percent in Monetary Policy of SBP, have really hurt the sentiments of investors, and local investors/institutions will expect to be very careful in next week
  • Uncertainty in Global Stock Markets
  • Fall in International Crude Oil Prices and reaches $77 per barrel
  • Target killing, law and order situation and Flood in different parts of country
  • Lucky cement has temporarily stopped production, because of serious clashes between to labour groups
  • Power tariffs have raised by Rs. 0.64 per unit
LOTPTA, BAFL, OGDC, PTC, BAFL, ENGRO, FFC, FFBL, Fatima Fertilizer, PSO, MCB, PPL were on top at KSE last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram