Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 28 Feb, 2010

Resignation of Finance Minister (Shaukat Tarin), imposition of CGT (Capital Gain Tax), significant rise in T-Bill yields, and continuous selling from Foreign Portfolio investors have kept index of Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) in red zone and bear-run continued throughout the week. KSE – 100 index was closed 9657.79 points while KSE – 30 index was closed at 10061.00 points. These are the lowest figures during last two months.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movement:

  • Finance Minister, Shaukat Tarin has resigned from his post
  • Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is imposing 10 per cent CGT (Capital Gain Tax), from 1st July, 2010. And also not withdrawing withholding tax on securities transitions
  • Terrorist activities, political turmoil, law and order situation throughout the country
  • Significant rise in T-Bill yields (20-27 bps) and rising trend in International commodity prices
  • Selling pressure was witnessed from Foreign along with local investors
  • Rising circular debt in the oil and gas sector and fall in international oil prices
  • Instability in exchange rates
  • Investors have opted profit taking in this result announcement session, especially for the blue chips, who announced their results last week e.g. OGDCL, MCB, HBL, HUBCO etc.
  • Dealers/investors are also worried about next finance minister
  • Qadirpur wellhead prices up by 7%
  • DAP offtake up by 10%
  • Cabinet approves future trading bill

Jahangir Siddiqui & Co, WorldCall Telecom, NBP, Arif Habib Securities, Lotte Pakistan PTA were the volume leaders and NBP, Millat tractors, Bannu woollen, HUBCO, Nestle Pakistan were major gainers last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepency in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram




Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 21 Feb, 2010

During this result season Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) has started in negative note, because of disputed decision of government regarding judges’ appointment. But when Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani has taken U-turn in the issue of appointing short-lived judges, resolved the disputing issue between government and judiciary.

Then market takes upward drive during the whole week, and crossed the psychological level of 9,900 points. The KSE 100 share index has closed on 9,902.62 by the increment of 96.75 points or one per cent, while KSE 30 index has closed on 10,295.24 points by the increment of 120.32 points or 1.18 per cent.

Following important news have played vital role during Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movements:

  • The disputed decision of short-lived judges appointment has been resolved, now issues between judiciary and government are settled

  • IMF (in a press release on Wednesday) expressed satisfaction in Pakistan’s macro performance

  • International oil prices (crude oil) have increased (up to $78 per barrel)

  • Foreign portfolio investors have invested huge amounts( around $7 million) in Oil & Gas, Banks and other sectors, during the week

  • In next week number of companies (Gas distribution, Banks, Insurance, Autos and Cement) are scheduled to announce corporate results for December 2009 quarter. Including some blue chips e.g. OGDC, MCB and HUBCO

  • NML, DGKC, PSO and HBL, MARI, ICI, BATA, KAPCO, ABL, IGIIL etc. has announced their results in last week

The result season and above news are very positive, analysts have expected KSE 100 index could achieve 10,000 points psychological target in upcoming days, if positive activities will remain continues. Beside all these positive activities, there are also some threats exists, e.g.

  • Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is imposing 10 per cent CGT (Capital Gain Tax), from 1st July, 2010. And also not withdrawing withholding tax on securities transitions
  • Domestic Politics (elections) and two major religious sects are scheduled to observe religious events. This may cause security concerns and can effect investor’s activities

Arif Habib Securities, LOTTE Pakistan, TRG, Bank of Pujab, Jahangir Siddiqui, were on top last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepency in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram


Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 13 Feb, 2010

Although Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) has closed on positive note last week, but index performance was very lacklustre and volatile. The KSE 100 share index has closed on 9,805.87 by the increment of 36.14 points or 0.37 per cent, while KSE 30 index has closed on 10,174.92 points. The result season is very positive, analysts have expected KSE 100 index could achieve 10,000 points psychological target in upcoming weeks, if positive activities will remain continues. Analysts also recommend buying strategies now, for the upcoming better rates and index movement in March, 2010.

Following important news have played vital role during Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movements:

  • The news about imposition of CGT (Capital Gain Tax) on share traders earnings, have really hurt the sentiments of traders
  • Mutual funds have been sold massively, but foreign portfolio investors have invested majorly in equities
  • During the week local investors have opted selling (profit taking) in Fertilizers, Oil & Gas and Banking sector
  • There were very positive reports witnessed by some blue chips e.g. Attock Petroleum, National Refinery and Pak Petroleum
  • In next week some more positive results are expected e.g. PSO, ICI Pakistan, Nishat Mills, Habib Bank and KAPCO
  • International Oil prices have fallen below $73 per barrel
  • Prices of DAP have increased up to record level

Pakistan Services, FFBL, LPCL, Bestway Cement, Colgate Palmolive, KESC, and Attock Cement were on top last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepency in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram


Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 6 Feb, 2010

Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) was very volatile last week. Last week trading was limited for four days of week. KSE – 100 index has closed on 9,769.73 points by the increment of 156 points or 1.60 per cent. While KSE – 30 index has closed on 10,176.92 points by increasing 121 points or 1.20 per cent.

Following news played vital role in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index movement:

  • OGDCL has announced, Increase in Qadirpur wellhead gas prices
  • OGDC discovered gas of 3.5 mmcfd in Guddu block
  • Resolution of deadlock between PPP and MQM negotiation on political conflicts
  • Strong buying was witnessed by Foreign Portfolio Investors in Oil, Fertilizer, Telecom and Bank Sector
  • Terrorist activities, security concerns, bomb blasts (in karachi), law and order situation throughout the country.
  • Investor’s sentiments were also hurt by, Monetary policy of SBP. State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has announced no change in its lending rates (12.5 pc), in monetary policy for next two months.
  • International oil prices and value of Pakistani Ruppee against US$ (Dolloar) is continuously decreasing.
  • Government of Pakistan has increased petroleum prices(Petrol prices increased by Rs6.10 per liter, diesel by Rs2.97 per liter)
  • 50 per cent cut has been proposed in Public Sector Development Program (PSDP)
  • Demand for the local cement mainly for UAE has been reduced, because china has expanded and increased imports
  • Nice results/reports are expected in upcoming weeks, e.g. PTCL has also scheduled to announce half yearly corporate results on Wednesday. And Attock Group Companies including POL, APL, NRL are also announcing their first half of fiscal year 2010 results.
  • DAP prices have reached up to record high levels.

PTCL , OGDCL, Paksitan Oilfields, MCB, National Bank, Lotte Paksitan, Lafarge Pakistan, TRG were on top last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepency in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram