Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis Jan 31, 2010

Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) continues to decline last week. KSE – 100 index sheds 163.40 points ( 1.67 per cent ) and closed at 9,614.19 points. While KSE – 30 index closed at 10,056.18 points after decrementing 228.08 points (2.21 per cent).
Following news played vital role in movement of Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE):

  • After Supreme court decision about NRO (National Reconciliation Ordinance), News about Asif Zardari cases and resignation, Rehman Malik’s cases opened in NAB, etc. have increased political uncertainity and confusion.
  • Foreign Portfolio Investors have quit and local investors have adopted on profit selling because of the selling pressure.
  • Few blue chip companies have announced better results e.g.
FFC (Fauji Fertilzer Company) announce increase of 35% YoY with a PAT of PKR 8.8 Billion and EPS: PKR 13.00. It has also announced dividend of PKR 3.25 per share taking full year payout to PKR 13.15 per share.
LUCK (Lucky Cement Company) has announced profit of PKR 1,908 Million and EPS of PKR 5.90.
ENGRO has reported at PAT of PKR 3.96 Billion and EPS of PKR 13.28. and also announced 10% bonus.
PPL (Pakistan Petroleum Limited) has reported its earnings PKR 9.8 per share. And dividend of PKR 4 per share.
  • Falling global equity markets and commodity prices. In International market Oil prices have decreased
  • Energy crisis and shortage of water supply are also major factors affecting economy.
  • Value of Pakistan Rupee has decreased at record level as compare to US$ Dollar
  • Average daily turnover was reduced (esp. first four days of last week) because investors were trying to buy result specific shares.
  • On Saturday evening, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has announced no change in its lending rates (12.5 pc), in monetary policy for next two months.
Lotte Pakistan PTA, Lucky Cement, FFC, FFBL were on top last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepency in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram


Karachi Stock Market Weekly Analysis Jan 24, 2010

Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) was very volatile and lacklustre during last week. Although KSE – 100 index has reached up to 10,000 points, but was unable to sustain this level for long. KSE – 100 index has closed at 9,777.59 points after the decrement of 145.55 points or 1.47 per cent. While KSE – 30 index has closed at 10,284.26 points after decrement of 207.28 points or 1.98 per cent.
Following news had played vital role during Karachi Stock Exchange Index:

  • Political turmoil and uncertainty has increased, after the detailed decision on NRO (National Reconciliation Ordinance)
  • Local investors have opted profit taking, because of selling pressure to save their investments in major sectors e.g. Banks, Oil & Gas, Fertilizer, Cement, Telecom etc.
  • Finance minister has declared that CGT will be imposed to equity market.
  • Confusion and uncertainties regarding Capital gain tax.
  • Power tariffs are expected to be increased by 24 per cent.
  • Terrorist activities, strikes, law and order situation etc. in Karachi and throughout the country.
  • Falling global equity markets and commodity prices. In International market Oil prices have decreased and reached at $78 per barrel.
  • Refineries may reject proposed Oil pricing formula devised by a committee on Oil Pricing.
  • OGDC has delayed compressor installation at Qadirpur, which has decreased the Gas productions.
  • Bank Islami has proposed a merger with Emirates Global Bank.

There were some positive news which has ignited market and helped to achieve benchmark of 10,000 points.

  • Anticipation of positive results season.
  • Good news for Fertilizer sectors (which made this sector up by 0.2 per cent) are: Prices of DAP has increased up to Rs. 2,200 per 50 kg bag (by the increment of Rs. 290 per 50 kg bag). Expectation of two strong Fertilizer results in next week. Fatima Fertilizer has started trading in open market.
  • Agreement of PSO (Pakistan State Oil) and Wall Street exchange, regarding its efforts to end circular debt in energy sector, PSO is getting Rs. 9 Billion from Ministry of Finance.
  • Lotte Pakistan has decided to invest $800 million in Pakistan.
  • Telecom sector was also on positive side (increased by 19 per cent) because of the news of reduction of mobile termination rates.
  • Strong results are expected in next week e.g. PPL, LUCK, two fertilizer giants etc.

LOTPTA, JSCL, TRG, BAFL, FFBL, PTC, ANL were on top last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepency in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram


Karachi Stock Market Weekly Analysis Jan 17, 2010

KSE index is in positive progress and incrementing by leaps and bounds. Last week KSE – 100 index has crossed psychological levels of 9,800, 9,900 and closed at 9,923.14 points after the increment of 146.93 points or 1.50 per cent. And KSE – 30 index has reached at 10,491.54 points after incrementing 202.27 points or 1.96 per cent. Remember this is the highest level achieved by Karachi Stock Exchange during last 16 months.

According to experts, if these positive development continues then market will cross 10,000 benchmark in upcoming week.

Following positive news have played a catalytic role in progress of KSE (Karachi Stock Exchange):

  • Expectations of 50-100 bpd cut in discount rates, in Jan 30 monetary policy
  • Interest of Foreign Portfolio Investors in blue chip e.g. Bank, Oil & Gas, Cement, Telecom, Fertilizer etc.
  • An overwhelming response (oversubscribed 4 times) from investors for Fatima Fertilizers Book Building, has also created a positive impact for other Fertilizer scrips.
  • Positive results and earnings are expected in upcoming results (especially Banks, Fertilizers, Oil & Gas).
  • Furnace Oil consumption have increased.
  • OGDC has signed an agreement with Nawab Mir Ali, to restart exploration in Uch field.
  • PPL has announced offshore drilling, which has grasped the interest of investors in E&P.
  • International Oil prices are increasing continuously ($83 per barrel), but recommendations of judicial commission regarding Oil prices have heart the sentiments of investors.
  • Political turmoil, uncertainty, Law and order situation of Pakistan (especially in Karachi) has settled down up to some extent, after the clarification on relationships of coalition partners (PPP and MQM) in Sindh.
  • Cement prices have increased up to Rs. 10 – 20 per 50 kg bag.

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim, NCL, NML, PPL, Bank Al Falah, PTC were on top last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepency in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram



Karachi Stock Market Weekly Analysis Jan 10, 2010

In the battle of Bulls and Bears, Bull were remain dominated throughout the last week. Karachi Stock Exchange has closed on very positive note, and on the highest level during last 3 months. KSE – 100 index has crossed psychological level of 9,800 points many times during this week. KSE - 100 index closed on 9,776.21 points by the increment of 389.29 points or 4.14 per cent. KSE – 30 index closed on 10,289.27 points by the increment of 439.35 points or 4.46 per cent.

Following important news have ignited market positively:

  • IMF has released third quarterly review and seems satisfied about Pakistan’s economy, the commencement of funds from IMF, World Bank and Saudi Arabia has increased the confidence of investors.
  • Forex reserves has reached up to $15.03 billion
  • Oil prices have increased up to $83 per barrel. Which is the highest price during last 14 months
  • The value of dollar against Rupee has also achieved the highest place. Which can give profit to local exporters e.g. textile and chemical exporters etc.
  • NBP has purchased 27 per cent stake in NAFA from NIB Bank.
  • Foreign investors are also showing interest in Banking and E&P, Telecom and Fertilizer sectors. According to experts in next week Foreign investment is also expected to get increased.
  • Largest IPO during last two years of Fatima Fertilizers of worth 2 Billion.

Banking, Fertilizer Sector, Arif Habib Securities, JSCL, DGKC, NCL, PTCL, LOTE Pakistan PTA, IGI Insurance, were on top last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepency in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram


Karachi Stock Market Review 3 Jan, 2010

Last week KSE opened only for three working days, Monday and Friday was the holiday and on Tuesday shortened session was witnessed. KSE – 100 Index has performed well in Tuesday (closed at 9,410.66 points) and Wednesday (closed at 9,507.95 points) but on Thursday it declines and closed at 9,386.92 points. KSE – 100 index has shed total 121.03 points or 1.27 per cent. By the year’s last closing session market has gained 3,500 points or 60 per cent increment for the year 2009. While KSE -30 index has closed at 9,849.92 points after the decline of 151.80 points or 1.52 per cent.

Following news played key role in movement of Bulls and Bears:

  • Law and Order situation and Security concerns, threats, strikes and terrorist activities especially in Karachi, after suicidal attack in Moharram. And a blast at Laki Marwat.
  • Political panic, uncertainties and turmoil was also witnessed.
  • On Wednesday, after IMF tranche of $1.2 billion, Market moved up.
  • Fertilizer sales are quite very well reported for the month of November, 2009. Urea +13 per cent and DAP +67 per cent.
  • Experts have stated, Rabi produce may decrease 20% and load shedding may increase because of short fall of water.
  • Government has increased Electricity up to 13.6 per cent and Gas up to 18 per cent.
  • NWFP Government is planning to privatise BOK (Bank of Khyber).
  • Moody’s depicted a negative outlook for the banking sector of Pakistan.
  • Oil and Gas production in Pakistan has recovered; OGDC, British Petroleum and MOL have got permission for seismic survey at six places. International oil prices have increased. But Hearing of Oil & Gas prices by Supreme Court has also affected sentiments of Investors.
  • Better results are expected especially Banks and Fertilizer sectors.

PPTA, DGKC, NCL, Bank Al-Falah, Arif Habib Securities, BOP were on top last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepency in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram