Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis November 30, 2009

As compare to last week’s, local equity market has posted a meager increase, remained dull and range-bound. The average daily volumes were 79.47 million shares, which is the lowest in last 37 weeks. KSE-100 index closed at 9203.72 points and KSE-30 index at 9694.58.

Following factors plays vital role in last weeks decline:

  • On account of Political uncertainty
  • Fewer working days, holidays because of Eid.
  • Net inflow of Foreign Portfolio Investors was just $1.3 million, while it was $17.8 million last week.
  • SBP in Monetary Policy Statement (24 November, 2009) announced 50bps cut in discount rate, which was beyond the expectations of investors.
  • Release of list of NRO beneficiaries including president, has created political turmoil.
  • Rumours of poor decision regarding HUBCO’s withholding tax case, and some other factors caused E&P and Power sectors decline.
  • Fall in International oil prices
  • Because of Eid holiday, there was intense selling pressure.
  • Foreign Investors had solid OGDC, PSO, MCB, NBP, PTCL, Adamjee Insurance, and Attock Refinery massively,

According to analysts, there is no positive trigger in near future which can ignite the market. So, market may remain lacklustre and volatile. There was news of possible NPL recovery from a major defaulter of Bank of Punjab, which causes BOP shares on top during the week. Along with Banks and OMC sectors, Fertilizer has also fared better because of better Urea and DAP off take. While despite the news of likely reduction in PSDP allocation, the leading stocks of the cement sector did stage snap rallies during the session

BOP, PPTA, OGDC, Bank Al-Falah, Nishat (Chunian) were on top last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepency in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis November 21, 2009

After thoroughly reviewing Karachi Stock Market index last week, we came to know that market performed very well and surged positive points. During last week, KSE - 100 index has reached at 9,306.36 points after increment of 2.6 percent or 239 points. And it’s parallel running junior KSE – 30 index closed at 9825.9 points.

Following positive activities which caused the surge are:

  • Foreign Portfolio Investors had shown interest and buy blue chips massively.
  • Decline in cut off yields and early introduction of leverage products in the market.
  • The expectation of 50-100bps cut in State Bank’s lending rate in its upcoming (24th November, 2009) Monetary Policy Review Statement.
  • 22.3 percent reduction in July-October trade deficit and 84 percent decline in the current account deficit to $1,071 million.
  • By Increasing Oil & Gas productions, E&P sector have outperformed other sectors, and posted returns of 6.4 percent.
  • By massive cotton arrivals and improved yarn export numbers, and witnessing renewed interest (up 3.8 percent) textile sector was also dominant.
  • Stronger valuations impact in the telecom sector.

Bank Al-Falah (because of rumours and speculation of Warid and Telenor deal again attracted investor’s attention), PPTA, PTC, OGDC, Pace Pak Ltd. were on top last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepency in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis November 15, 2009

This Karachi Stock Exchange started with negative activities, as the sequel of previous weeks. But KSE index had performed well especially on ending, and crossed psychological level of 9,000 points. KSE – 100 index has gained 130.69 points or 1.46 percent, and closed at 9,067.17 points. And KSE – 30 index increased 165.89 points or 1.76 percent and closed at 9,562.33 points.
Following important factors have triggered market to upside:
  • Positive dialogue between PPP and PML-N, which has ended the political uncertainty in country.
  • The Government (PPP) has decided to not to table NRO on National Assembly.
  • Expectation $1.2billion tranche from IMF, and $1.8 from Friends of Pakistan next month.
  • The easing of CPI inflation into single digit at 8.87 per cent after 22-month;
  • Fresh statement from Swiss Credit saying that Pakistani stocks market would be standing near 11,200 points by June;
  • The expectation of 50-100bps cut in State Bank’s lending rate in its November Monetary Policy Review Statement.
JSCL, AHSL, PPTA, PTC, OGDCL, DGKC, Engro Chemicals, Adamjee Insurance, and Pakistan Oil Field were the volume leaders last week.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current afairs & invstors point of view. There may be discrepency in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Review Oct 31, 2009

In the results season, beside strong corporate results along with continuous offshore investment, the visit of Hillary Clinton and talks of increased economic, infrastructural and military assistance. A bearish trend was witnessed in KSE throughout the last week. KSE 100 – index closed at 9,159.18 points and KSE 30 – index closed at 9,662.87 points. The week was started positively and gained 224 points on Monday, but after bomb blast at Peshawar and other terrorist’s attacks throughout the country, have lead investors in panic and confused state. Local investors have preferred selling and profit taking instead of buying because of security concerns, worsening law and order situation of the country.

Following are major reasons for the downfall of market:

  • Heavy bomb blasts (e.g. Peshawar) and other high profile terrorist’s attacks throughout the country
  • Military operation in Wazirstan
  • Local investors opted to offload their holdings, and were major sellers because of security concerns
  • Market remained volatile on a flurry of industry/company specific news
  • Political contradictions in NRO, and the presence of on-going political uncertainty
  • Rumours of foreign selling in MCB

In the last week’s results AICL posted positive results and showed profit of 19.6 percent, ABL also posted 15.3 percent gain. DGKC, Lucky, HBL, AKBL have posted better than expecting earnings. While the results of OGDC, HUBC, PTC and NML were in the line with market expectations.

E&P sector, especially Pakistan Oilfields (POL) would gain advantage, because there is news, that gas production from phase II development project on the Manzalai field in the Tal Block.

According to analysts, in future (e.g. next week), market may remain volatile, because investors are very reluctant in long term investment, and they are interest in selling and profit taking nowadays.

Pak PTA, Jahangir Siddiqui Company, Arif Habib Securities, NIB Bank, Bank Al-Falah, Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim, PTCL and TRG were the volume leaders last week.

Among the top gainers, Unilever Foods and Dreamworld leading, up by Rs30 and Rs26.98 followed by Adamjee Insurance, EFU Life, IGI, Lakson Tobacco, PECO, HinoPak, Atlas Battery, Excise Battery, Siemens Pakistan, Shezan International, Service Industries, Clariant Pakistan and Colgate Pakistan, which posted fresh gains ranging from Rs5.50 to Rs15.92.